Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Is Giovani Bernard the secret weapon who can lift teams in fantasy championship games? Defenses with good matchups in Week 15. Why don't the 49ers just give Mostert the ball? Tackle-busting Deebo Samuel, and more.
Question 1
What do you think about using Gio Bernard against Dallas? The matchup is great but of course Cincy blows. I have Gio on every playoff team and thinking of putting him in a flex spot over guys like Chark, Watkins, or James Connor?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Dallas has had a bunch of games allowing over 200 rushing yards, but most of them were against teams that run the ball much better than Cincinnati. If we set aside the worst six games by that defense and look at what’s left, I see 106 rushing yards, with 4 TDs in those six games. That’s probably more in line with the kind of numbers that you would be hoping for out of the Bengals. But it’s definitely a terrible defense, and I would start Bernard ahead of any of the guy you mention.
Question 2
With a bye this week I wanted your take at top defenses for Week 15?
Grant Markgraf (Elmhurst, IL)
Every team has played 12 games. We can take the numbers for each defense – fumbles, interceptions, sacks, and defenses scored on returns of kicks and turnovers – and then average them against what opponents have allowed. The Eagles, for example, have allowed 53 sacks, making them look like a super favorable matchup. If we do that for the 32 games scheduled to be played in Week 15, the Steelers, Bills, Colts, Browns and Cardinals project to have the best defenses (using the existing numbers). That’s assuming 6 points for TDs, 2 for takeaways and 1 for sacks.
| DEFENSES: AVERAGED POINTS FOR WEEK 15 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Opp | Fum | Int | Sack | TD | Points |
| Pittsburgh | at Cin. | .71 | 1.04 | 3.67 | .18 | 8.25 |
| Buffalo | at Den. | .67 | 1.29 | 2.25 | .15 | 7.08 |
| Indianapolis | Hou. | .50 | .79 | 2.54 | .31 | 6.96 |
| Cleveland | at NYG | .71 | .83 | 2.63 | .21 | 6.95 |
| Arizona | Phil. | .46 | 1.08 | 3.42 | .05 | 6.83 |
| Baltimore | Jax. | .75 | .83 | 2.50 | .18 | 6.75 |
| LA Rams | NYJ | .50 | 1.00 | 2.88 | .14 | 6.71 |
| San Francisco | at Dall. | .83 | .88 | 2.21 | .15 | 6.54 |
| Chicago | at Min. | .58 | .79 | 2.00 | .28 | 6.42 |
| Miami | N.E. | .50 | 1.08 | 2.21 | .17 | 6.38 |
| Seattle | at Was. | .63 | .83 | 2.96 | .08 | 6.37 |
| Washington | Sea. | .33 | .92 | 3.17 | .10 | 6.25 |
| NY Giants | Clev. | .67 | .71 | 2.04 | .17 | 5.79 |
| Tennessee | Det. | .42 | .88 | 1.96 | .21 | 5.79 |
| NY Jets | at LAR | .71 | .75 | 1.50 | .22 | 5.75 |
| Tampa Bay | at Atl. | .42 | .92 | 2.71 | .06 | 5.71 |
| Philadelphia | at Ariz. | .54 | .54 | 2.42 | .18 | 5.67 |
| Minnesota | Chi. | .46 | 1.00 | 2.13 | .10 | 5.62 |
| Las Vegas | LAC | .46 | .79 | 1.75 | .22 | 5.58 |
| Dallas | S.F. | .58 | .79 | 2.04 | .13 | 5.54 |
| New England | at Mia. | .42 | .92 | 1.75 | .17 | 5.42 |
| Jacksonville | at Balt. | .42 | .75 | 1.75 | .21 | 5.33 |
| Atlanta | T.B. | .58 | .79 | 1.67 | .13 | 5.17 |
| LA Chargers | at L.V. | .75 | .46 | 1.75 | .17 | 5.17 |
| Kansas City | at N.O. | .54 | .75 | 1.71 | .13 | 5.04 |
| Green Bay | Car. | .33 | .75 | 2.21 | .10 | 4.96 |
| New Orleans | K.C. | .50 | .63 | 2.17 | .08 | 4.92 |
| Carolina | at G.B. | .71 | .38 | 1.33 | .21 | 4.75 |
| Denver | Buff. | .50 | .67 | 2.33 | .00 | 4.67 |
| Houston | Ind. | .33 | .50 | 1.79 | .18 | 4.54 |
| Detroit | at Ten. | .33 | .50 | 1.54 | .04 | 3.46 |
| Cincinnati | Pitt. | .33 | .67 | .96 | .04 | 3.21 |
Question 3
It’s Week 1 of the playoffs and for my last WR spot (non PPR) , I’m stuck between Cooper Kupp and Antonio Brown. Your rankings would suggest benching Kupp, but he’s been far more productive than Brown so far. Is this the right move? I don’t wanna be the idiot who leaves Kupp on the bench if he blows up. It also worries me that Tampa has so many options on offense.
Brett Wills (Morton, PA)
When you have good players on your bench, this is one of the problems you run into. If you have guys like Kupp or Brown as reserves, there will be weeks that they outperform the starter ahead of them. For this week, I would be more comfortable using Brown. He’s playing against a Minnesota defense that’s allowed the 2nd-most touchdowns to wide receivers in the league. I am a lot more fearful of the Patriots defense, which pitched a shutout last week against a good Chargers offense. But I won’t try to argue that Kupp is a nice player; certainly has the potential to make you look bad.
Question 4
It's incredibly frustrating watching the 49ers offense. Shanahan seems to believe that egalitarian usage of his backs and receivers is a higher priority than maximizing their effectiveness. His random usage of his skill players makes no sense whatsoever. The backs don't have roles (other than McKinnon on third and long). Tonight (Monday) he made no attempt to get the ball to Deebo until well into the fourth quarter. He doesn't seem to be aware that Mostert is better at EVERYTHING than Wilson and Coleman. After witnessing the debacle against the Bills, I don't know if I can begin to have faith in using Mostert in the fantasy playoffs. Enough venting. Do you discern some sort of method to these Shanahanigans that I can't see?
Dave Sjogren (Vienna, VA)
I didn’t understand why Mostert wasn’t playing more. That makes him a wildly risky pick this week against Washington. Looking a week down the road, the 49ers will be playing against the league’s worst run defense in Dallas. It sure would be nice to be able to use Mostert in that game.
Question 5
Would it be possible for Fantasy Index to release the Redrafter and Weekly at the same time on Tuesdays? Many leagues give you the opportunity to pick up players from waivers on Wednesday morning. It would be nice to look at both.
Ed Mullaney (Silver Spring, MD)
We don’t have the Fantasy Football Weekly ready on Tuesday. We haven’t had the chance to carefully look at each matchup. That takes considerable time. With the Redrafter, you’re getting a few initial impressions on each team, and we get that ready for Tuesday. But most of the work for the Weekly is completed on Tuesday. You have to take a long, careful look at each offense and matchup, settling on projections for in the various stat categories.
Question 6
Our league's playoffs are Weeks 15 and 16 with Super Bowl week 17. Russ hasn't been cooking gourmet lately, and he faces Washington, Rams, and 49ers those weeks. Might one consider benching him in favor of someone like a Roethlisberger for the playoffs?
Gary Hamblin (Bloomington, IL)
I fear the Rams. They’ve got a nice defense, and I think they’ve got a good feel for how to play against him. I’m not sure how I’ll feel in a couple of weeks, but if they were playing that game this week, I would be mulling whether to plug in somebody else. With Washington and San Francisco, I’m not there yet. In general, would be thinking that I’d roll out Wilson against those guys.
Question 7
I play in a number of PPR leagues where we keep most of our good players for life, so picking up the right guy now is like having an extra first-round pick next year. Which of these players might be valuable fantasy starters in the future: Daniel Jones, Taysom Hill, Gallman, Ty Johnson, Josh Adams, Coutee, Mooney, Duvernay, Bryan Edwards, Collin Johnson, Greg Davis, Preston Williams, Chad Hansen, Logan Thomas, Cole Kmet?
JOHN BENNETT (Chino, CA)
I suppose it could be argued that they all have some value. Well, except Greg Davis. He hasn’t kicked since 1998. I think at this point, it’s safe to assume he’s not going to make it back into the NFL. (I’m not sure where you’re going on that one; perhaps Gabriel Davis.) Of the guys you list, Taysom Hill is the one I find to be the most interesting. Drew Brees is gone at the end of the year. The Saints need a new quarterback, and Hill is the frontrunner for the job. Maybe they can mold him into something. He’s a productive runner, making it a lot easier for him to finish with viable numbers. And he’s working with Sean Payton, who is probably the best offensive coach in the league.
Question 8
Not a question, but an observation. I wrote to you a couple of weeks ago asking if you regretted slotting Deebo Samuel 5th in your mag. You said he is the most physical receiver in the league. I watched all of his catches against the Rams. You were spot on. He really showed me something and I'm glad he's here for the playoffs.
Patrick LaMendola (Penfield, NY)
I was thinking the same thing in the Rams game. Lots of broken tackes. He’s really something on those jet sweeps and end-arounds. Also on slants. As we look at 2021, however, we have to wonder if they can do a better job of getting him in the end zone. They don’t seem to use him much as a conventional wide receiver. You don’t see him running many downfield routes, and you don’t see them throwing him fade routes. He’s played in six games – let’s call it five full, healthy games – and scored only one touchdown. When he’s been playing, they’re thrown 8 TDs, and he’s caught only one of them. I don’t know that their other wide receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, is quite as good as Samuel, but Aiyuk has caught 6 TDs in his nine games. So if we project forward to 2021, I can’t right now say that I have a lot of confidence that Samuel will score more touchdowns than Aiyuk. They’ve also got George Kittle.
Question 9
Since many FF teams have their eyes on week 15 already (my team has a bye this week) will you be sending out early projections for a week that will be critical to playoff teams? Helping those of us who are looking down the road would be a welcome addition to what you already do. That will allow us to hit the waiver wire now!
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
We can do the same thing we did with the defenses. We can take the numbers for what offenses are doing now, and average them against what defenses have been allowing. That provides a rough starting point, putting the offenses in a 1 thru 32 order. You’re looking at rushing touchdowns, passing touchdowns and offensive totals (which are almost rushing + passing, but there are have been a couple of weird touchdowns also). The Titans are easily the No. 1 team. Surprise teams that clock out at over 3 TDs include the 49ers (at Dallas) and Lions (at Tennessee).
| OFFENSES: AVERAGED TOUCHDOWNS FOR WEEK 15 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Opp | Run | Pass | Total |
| Tennessee | Det. | 1.50 | 2.04 | 3.58 |
| Green Bay | Car. | 1.00 | 2.29 | 3.29 |
| San Francisco | at Dall. | 1.38 | 1.83 | 3.21 |
| Arizona | Phil. | 1.50 | 1.63 | 3.13 |
| Tampa Bay | at Atl. | .96 | 2.17 | 3.13 |
| Detroit | at Ten. | 1.00 | 2.04 | 3.04 |
| Las Vegas | LAC | 1.13 | 1.92 | 3.04 |
| Baltimore | Jax. | 1.17 | 1.83 | 3.00 |
| LA Rams | NYJ | 1.29 | 1.71 | 3.00 |
| LA Chargers | at L.V. | 1.13 | 1.79 | 2.92 |
| Seattle | at Was. | .83 | 2.08 | 2.92 |
| Indianapolis | Hou. | 1.21 | 1.67 | 2.88 |
| New Orleans | K.C. | 1.25 | 1.63 | 2.88 |
| Pittsburgh | at Cin. | .79 | 2.08 | 2.88 |
| Buffalo | at Den. | 1.00 | 1.83 | 2.83 |
| Minnesota | Chi. | .96 | 1.88 | 2.83 |
| Kansas City | at N.O. | .63 | 2.17 | 2.79 |
| Washington | Sea. | 1.38 | 1.38 | 2.75 |
| Atlanta | T.B. | .83 | 1.71 | 2.54 |
| Cleveland | at NYG | .92 | 1.63 | 2.54 |
| Houston | Ind. | .92 | 1.63 | 2.54 |
| Carolina | at G.B. | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Philadelphia | at Ariz. | .88 | 1.54 | 2.46 |
| Denver | Buff. | 1.04 | 1.38 | 2.42 |
| Dallas | S.F. | .75 | 1.63 | 2.38 |
| NY Giants | Clev. | .92 | 1.42 | 2.38 |
| Chicago | at Min. | .50 | 1.83 | 2.33 |
| Miami | N.E. | .83 | 1.46 | 2.29 |
| New England | at Mia. | 1.33 | .92 | 2.25 |
| Jacksonville | at Balt. | .71 | 1.46 | 2.21 |
| Cincinnati | Pitt. | .67 | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| NY Jets | at LAR | .71 | 1.04 | 1.75 |
Question 10
First round playoffs here we come. With Gibson out, I'm having to plug in McKissic as RB2 w/ Henry. HPPR league. Got a few borderline situations based on the Weekly. I have trouble starting Taysom over Josh Allen even though you have him a bit higher. At my flex it's between Mostert or Aiyuk. Again, based on rankings a toss-up with slight edge to Aiyuk, but I generally lean towards the RB. Just worried to see Mostert so low this week (likely due to the time share situation in Week 13)? So.....Allen or Hill? Mostert or Aiyuk? Diggs and Metcalf are locked in as my other WRs.
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
When I’m making waiver moves, especially for a playoff game, I give a little respect for what the guy has done for the team. That is, I wouldn’t move away from season-long Josh Allen unless I was sure that I believed Taysom Hill was an upgrade. In that particular case, I’m not terrified of the Pittsburgh defense. It’s lost some guys, and I don’t see it as a smothering, shut-down group. Steelers haven’t allowed more than one touchdown pass in five straight games, but they haven’t been playing against any passers that are anywhere near Josh Allen in ability – Alex Smith, Robert Griffin III, Jake Luton, Joe Burrow and the Nooch. I didn’t understand why Mostert was just a rotational player on Monday night. He’s a risky choice, considering the various issues they’re having in San Francisco, but there’s also a path to success. I could see that running game showing up on Sunday, with Mostert maybe playing in his more usual role and leading the way.
Question 11
Which 2 running backs would you start in Week 14 amongst the following: Jacobs, Snell, Booker, Conner, Mostert or N. Hines. Am in a really tough situation and not sure who to start? Am really worried about the matchups this week. Any advice would be greatly appreciated!
Anthony Cole (Corpus Christi, TX)
I don’t think Jacobs will be playing, and Snell can be removed from consideration (with Conner coming back), so it’s four guys you’re picking from. Which two you go with could depend on scoring system.