Buccaneers: Washington ranks 4th in scoring defense; only the Rams allowed fewer yards in the regular season. But this matchup might ...
... not be all that awful for Tampa Bay. Most of that success, after all, came against the many badly flawed offenses in the NFC East. If you look only at the more capable offenses, Washington's D isn't as formidable. It allowed 2 TDs each in recent games against Pittsburgh and Seattle. We'll grant that. But the Lions scored 30 points against them. Washington played only four other games against teams that didn't finish with losing records or below-average offenses (all early in the year) and all of those teams also scored 30-plus points -- Cardinals, Ravens, Rams, Browns. While there may be some fits and starts, and it's worrying ...
This report is taken from today's Week 18 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly (for the wildcard round of the NFL playoffs). The newsletter includes our player rankings for the wildcard games, plus 13 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... that there will be no pressure to open things up, piling on the points, we're expecting 3-plus touchdowns. ... Mike Evans left the Atlanta game with a knee injury. Nothing showed up on the MRI, but he didn't practice Tuesday. There's a chance he'll sit out, and if he plays, it will be in a less-extensive role than usual. This should translate into more catches than usual for Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. They both caught 2 TDs after Evans left on Sunday. And it could bring Scotty Miller into the discussion if Evans is ruled out later in the week. Miller looks like an Amendola-Edelman slot receiver, but he's actually more of a deep threat. That's how they use him, sneaking him loose for downfield catches, and he's been effective at it. He's averaged a team-high 15.2 yards per catch -- a yard more than anyone else they've got. He was leading the team with 400 receiving yards at the halfway point of the season. Then Brown showed up, pushing him down the depth chart. Miller should be a serviceable warm-body type receiver (if Evans is ruled out). Since Brown showed up and played sparingly in an initial appearance, the Bucs have had their full three-man posse for seven games. Evans has averaged 81 yards in those seven games, with 6 TDs. Godwin has averaged 74, with 5 TDs. And Brown has averaged 65 in those seven, with 4 TDs. Evans has been the best scorer, but that was when he was healthy. Even if he's declared active and fully healthy for Saturday's game, we'll be slotting him behind those other two. Both Godwin and Brown went over 130 yards last week, and they've both caught touchdowns three weeks in a row. ... If you want to talk yourself out of Tom Brady, you can play around with some of the trends and numbers. Washington allowed only 212 passing yards per game in the regular season, 2nd-fewest in the league, and with just 21 TD passes. They've got a good pass rush, and Brady's worst games have all come against teams that have been able to generate pressure (Saints twice, Rams and Kansas City). But while Brady isn't what he's been in the past, he's still a very capable quarterback, and he's got a great cache of weapons around him. He's been awfully productive, averaging 290 passing yards, with 40 touchdowns. They also use him on sneaks (3 rushing TDs). Our main fear here is that the Bucs might follow the lead of Seattle and Russell Wilson, recognizing that there's no need to play aggressively against a toothless opponent with no ability to generate long drives. Bucs will lose this game only if they commit some untimely turnovers. With that in mind, the Bucs might conservatively punch out something like a 23-10 win. But we're not trying to talk anyone out of Brady, who looks about as likely as anyone to lead the league in passing production this week. ... We're ranking Rob Gronkowski higher than usual. If Mike Evans is out or limited, that probably will result in Gronkowski playing a larger role. He'll work against a defense that's allowed almost as many touchdowns to tight ends (7) as wide receivers (10). Gronkowski is pretty good anyway; he's averaged 44 yards in his last 14 games, with 6 TDs. The Bucs also regularly use another tight end in the passing game, Cameron Brate, and he's averaged 22 yards in his last 13 games, with 2 TDs (he's about half of a Gronk). ... This looks like a decent-enough situation for Ronald Jones and the running game. Washington's defense is generally considered very good, but it's been pretty average against the run, allowing 113 yards per game, and with 14 TDs. Seattle ran for 181 yards and a touchdown at Washington a few weeks ago. When Washington played four non-losing teams in a row early in the year, they all ran for at least 129 yards, with 2 TD runs each. If Tampa Bay opts to go with the more controlled, cautious route in this game, Jones could be their key offensive player. He recently missed two games following a finger surgery and spending a week on the COVID list, but he's had a good year. He's averaged 76 rushing and 11 receiving yards in his last 11 games, with 7 TDs. Leonard Fournette got to fill in for a couple of games recently and didn't do much. Fournette ran for 103 yards against Carolina back in Week 2 but otherwise has averaged only 3.1 yards per carry. Should be mostly Jones on Saturday. ... Helped along by a high-powered offense, Ryan Succop looks capable of being the highest-scoring kicker of the first round. He's one of three playing this week who scored over 135 points in the regular season, and the other two are rookies. Washington has a good defense, but it hasn't been killer against kickers (opposing kickers scored 105 points against this team in the regular season). Washington has played six games against teams that didn't finish with losing records, and those teams averaged 8 kicking points. ... The Buccaneers Defense has the potential to play a huge role. It's an active, aggressive unit anyway, with 48 sacks in the regular season (only two playoff teams had more sacks). And here its playing against a lesser, limited offense. Alex Smith is a smart, veteran quarterback, but he's playing hurt and still trying to get his timing back after spending two years battling back from a career-threatening injury. Earlier in his career, Smith was the best quarterback in the league at avoiding interceptions, but he's not that guy anymore. In essentially six and half games of work, he's taken 22 sacks and thrown 8 interceptions. The performance numbers suggest the Bucs will lead the league in takeaways this week. Washington had 27 turnovers in the regular season (the most of the playoff teams) while the Bucs had 25 takeaways, for a combined total of 52 -- 4 more than any other matchup this week. Tampa Bay doesn't have a kick returner that anybody fears (Jaydon Mickens hasn't had a notable return since 2017).