Every Saturday morning, I'll take a quick look at all the week's games, offering my own brief take on what I think will happen, as well as touching on significant injury news since our Weekly came out. I'll check in every so often over the course of the day to answer lineup questions, too.
What follows is a brief look at all the games with how I'd react in my own lineups to injury developments or other news. The official rankings are the ones in the Weekly. Those take precedence. But sometimes players are very close, and in those cases I'm glad to offer opinions on how I'd approach those situations. Sometimes I like certain players more or less than Ian, and sometimes I have different risk tolerance with injuries etc.
Rams at Packers: I think we've all seen teams with great defenses and a hot running back make deep playoff runs. The Giants way back when, the Patriots at the beginning of Tom Brady's tenure. (Brady in his first four years as a starter averaged 190, 235, 226 and 231 yards per game - his first season with 30 touchdown passes was his 7th as a starter.) So don't underestimate the possibility of the Rams making a game of this even with Jared Goff doing essentially nothing, hidden in the background, making the occasional short throws and handing it off. Not that Cam Akers is Derrick Henry, but he's running well, he's got fresh legs (Seattle's run defense was better than Green Bay's), and it will no doubt be cold and grim at Lambeau; maybe a ground game and small ball can make a difference. That's not what I'm predicting, but I'm not underestimating the possibility of Los Angeles shocking the Packers. It could happen.
More likely the Packers win, let's say 26-19, but I'm not predicting huge numbers from anyone. I'm not crazy about Aaron Rodgers, at present I'm sitting Davante Adams in favor of Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and I don't think it's a great situation for Aaron Jones. For the Rams, I'm interested in Akers and Robert Woods, with the idea that Cooper Kupp will play limited snaps (if at all), and Woods will get a few end-arounds while also seeing the most targets. I think there's an outside chance the Rams steal a low-scoring game, but more likely Rodgers makes enough plays to get a win.
Ravens at Bills: Just as the Rams are a tough matchup for the Packers, this is a poor situation for the Bills. Not only is Baltimore strong on defense and now battle-tested, but they're better than a Colts team that probably should have beat Buffalo last week; at least could have. I'm using Stefon Diggs, and I think you can consider Devin Singletary, since he'll likely play close to full-time. But I wish I'd used Josh Allen last week, since I won't be using him here (in a playoff competition where you can use players only once) and if Buffalo loses I won't be using him at all. Buffalo's defense, meanwhile, isn't so hot and you get the feeling that their ground game and Lamar Jackson could have some success. Not a great situation for the Bills.
But, all year long the Bills have exceeded expectations, particularly on offense. They put up big numbers in a lot of games against sound defenses, including the Rams, the Patriots and the Steelers. Betting against Josh Allen making some big throws and big runs doesn't seem like good business. Very much a game that could go either way, and Baltimore has the superior defensive team. I'm going with Buffalo 27, Baltimore 24, but the reverse wouldn't be at all surprising.
Browns at Kansas City: Hats off to Cleveland for coming out and blowing the doors off the Steelers last week. It's been a great year for them; they're not a joke anymore. But I feel pretty comfortable that it all ends here. Cleveland's defense is not too good against the pass and Patrick Mahomes is the game's best quarterback. He doesn't have Sammy Watkins, which changes essentially nothing; he's still go Hill and Kelce and either Hardman or Robinson or some combo of both should fill in adequately. How does Cleveland slow him down? They didn't do much of it against good passing games all year.
For Cleveland, I do think their offense will be productive. Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should have some success (you know Hunt will be up for this matchup), and Baker Mayfield will hit some throws, as he did last week. I'd consider Jarvis Landry. This looks pretty much certain to be the highest-scoring game of the week, as in 38-27 high-scoring. Kansas City running backs: I don't want to use any of them. Possibly all three will play (more possible, I think, that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is inactive), and I think the ground game might be an afterthought. Mahomes throwing for about 350 yards; that I can see. Cleveland winning this game would be quite the upset; I don't think it will happen. But I didn't think they'd beat Pittsburgh, so I need to allow for the possibility I'm wrong.
Bucs at Saints: Good choice by the league to make this the last game of the weekend, as to me it's the most interesting one -- the one I'm least sure what will happen. I don't know who will win the Ravens-Bills game, but I think it should be a close one either way. This one I see a realm of possibilities: great back and forth classic, Saints blowouts, Bucs dominant performance. The Bucs dominating is of course the least likely, since they got beaten badly in both regular-season matchups. So why do I think they can win? Well, because we've seen a few years now of the Saints coming up small in the playoffs when they seemed ticketed for an easy win, losing to the Vikings and Rams in past years. Sure there were officiating controversies, yes their defense is better now, and yes (especially) they really outclassed the Bucs during the regular season. But it's the playoffs, it's Tom Brady and a really outstanding group of pass catchers, and we know what Drew Brees and company struggling looks like, we've seen it plenty in recent years.
Let's just say it's a whole lot easier for me to see Brady come out clicking with his great receivers than Brees and Thomas and whoever else they deem as their No. 2, even though Brees has the superior matchup. I'm not exactly a Brady fan but I can't deny he's seemed to age differently than other 40-something quarterbacks. Saints are home and have the better defense. Tampa Bay has the better receivers, better quarterback (sorry Drew it's true) and maybe a little more momentum and confidence. I'm going with Bucs 26, Saints 23, and I think it'll be a classic.
Enjoy the games.