My plan for yesterday morning was to run a Factoid about how typically one Conference Championship game is good and the other one isn't. Stuff got in the way and the item didn't happen, but the results did. Packers-Bucs was a classic. Kansas City-Buffalo was in doubt for maybe 5 minutes. At least we've got stuff to talk about for a few days (or years). On to the recaps.
Tampa Bay 31, Green Bay 26. I need to point out up front that I'm not a big analytics guy. Maybe this is a bad thing to admit as a fantasy professional in today's world. What I mean by this is while I enjoy analysis, numbers and the like, and make a living off of it, every game is different. So if analytics shows that such and such is the right move 25 percent of the time and something else is the right move only 22 percent of the time, that to me is not good evidence for making that move. Because the 1 in 4 times that something was the right move doesn't have an actual impact on the here and now.
In this case I'm talking about Green Bay's decision to go for a 2-point conversion after scoring a touchdown to pull within 28-23. This is important because it impacted Matt LaFleur's decision to kick a field goal later on, which was honestly the most stunning decision I can recall ever witnessing in 40 years of watching football. I thought they'd go for it on 4th and goal even if Rodgers had been SACKED on 3rd and goal. My brain couldn't comprehend the notion of kicking a field goal to pull within 5 points with less than 3 minutes left. Yes, even if you have all your timeouts. LaFleur later explained that it was a case of knowing they needed both a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to tie the game. Which is true, but the only reason they needed that 2-point conversion was because of the failed 2-point conversion earlier on. Which brings us back to that choice.
Analytics percentages said going for 2 was better that kicking there. Casual fans watching also probably figured, hey, pull within 3 rather than kick an extra point and still be down by 4. Sounds fine, except it was the 3rd quarter of a high-scoring game, not a defensive struggle. Potentially pulling within a field goal at that point did not seem as valuable to me as taking a sure point. And indeed, taking the sure point would have had Green Bay down by only 7 points in that 4th and goal situation, and LaFleur would apparently have gone for it. Which he should have.
So needing a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game, LaFleur kicked a field goal, with the result being he'd only need a touchdown to win. The problem is that by going for the touchdown and tw0-point conversion, at least you had a chance to tie the game up right then and there without getting a defensive stop. Kicking the field goal required a defensive stop of Tom Brady and the Bucs. Which they didn't get, and the rest was history.
The Packers didn't get that stop due to a third-down penalty which was pretty clearly warranted. The argument I'm seeing against it was that the officials weren't calling the game very tightly all along, yet at that point they decided to throw a late, critical flag than enabled the Bucs to run out the clock. And I get the argument. But the flag should have been thrown there, just as it should have been thrown (and wasn't) in Rams-Saints a couple of years ago. Had the flag not been thrown, and Green Bay went on to win, we'd be seeing still images of Kevin King stretching out Tyler Johnson's jersey like a tent for years to come. BTW, impressive acting by Johnson, who crashed to the earth like he'd had his rib cage yanked out of his body.
Apologies for going on and on about this. The short and sweet explanation of my problem with the decision to kick a field goal is that one choice raised the possibility of winning the game without getting a late defensive stop, and one did not. Green Bay opted for the one that required the defensive stop they were unable to get. It's that simple. If someone wants to defend LaFleur's call, hey, I'm all ears. Let's hear it.
As for the game itself, Tom Brady played a perfect first half. Some pretty remarkable throws, including the bomb to Scotty Miller that ended the half (a defensive meltdown by the Packers to rival the one by the Jets against the Raiders that got Gregg Williams fired). Anybody who questioned Brady's ability need only watch him dropping dimes throughout the first half to build the lead that Tampa Bay never gave up. In the second half, Brady was off-target on a lot of throws, throwing 3 interceptions (a couple off receivers' hands, but the throws were high or whatever too), and was fortunate to advance to the Super Bowl. But good fortune counts too.
Leonard Fournette led the backfield. His hands flat-out suck and I have no idea how he is viewed as an asset on passing downs, but he had a damn impressive touchdown run -- I'm done thinking Ronald Jones will lead the backfield in the Super Bowl. Also really impressed by the Bucs' play-calling in most of this game, notably the sweet screen pass to Rob Gronkowski that set up the clutch late field goal that I thought Succop would miss. It goes without saying that Bruce Arians and company severely outcoached the Packers.
Aaron Rodgers now 1-4 in championship games, with a pair of real heartbreakers. He was diplomatic about the decision to go for a field goal, perhaps thinking about the fact that he probably could have run it in for a touchdown on third and goal (I say definitely, but people can disagree). Bottom line is that this was a game Rodgers and the Packers really should have won. He had maybe his best-ever season and was home for the Championship game. Gotta win those. You don't get chances like that every year.
Kansas City 38, Buffalo 24. I guess the big thing to discuss about this game is the way Kansas City was able to neutralize Stefon Diggs, like nobody else had done all season. But we've seen it happen in the playoffs before -- when a clear, No. 1 go-to guy like Diggs (who led the league in targets, receptions, yards) is a defensive focus in the playoffs, and shut down. Last week I and others discussed how to rank the big four playing this weekend (Adams, Kelce, Hill, Diggs), and I ultimately decided to include Diggs in the top 3. He was 4th by a good margin, costing those who started him some points that can't be retrieved. A combination of Kansas City doing a great job on him and Josh Allen looking like he was not quite ready for his close-up. He missed some throws, and held the ball too long on a lot of other plays. Took a couple of long sacks and near sacks. Just seemed a little deer in the headlights.
This is not to take anything away from Allen, who's a young guy who had an amazing year (and fantasy-wise, he was the best of yesterday's quarterbacks, unless you're getting 6 points for TD passes -- no complaints I trust from anyone who started Allen). No reason to think Allen and Buffalo won't make a lot more deep playoff runs. I had some concerns that he'd be a little shaky in the biggest game of his life (and in general, Buffalo wasn't terribly impressive in either of their playoff wins). But all things considered, I think Bills fans have to be pretty pleased with the season.
Flaws: Devin Singletary wasn't very impressive, in the postseason or the regular season. Benched for T.J. Yeldon doesn't look good in a recap. Zack Moss was better during the season, and Buffalo might not think Moss is good enough to be a lead back either -- it's an area they'll probably look to improve in the offseason. But Singletary's days as a lead back are probably done. The Bills defense also needs to be better, because it was godawful yesterday.
Which brings us to Kansas City, which dominated basically from right after Mecole Hardman fumbled a punt through the remainder of the game. They could do whatever they wanted throughout, and did. Travis Kelce is making his case as about the best ever. Tyreek Hill was huge. Patrick Mahomes looked great. If I were a Kansas City fan, I'd have full confidence in what's going to happen in two weeks. If I were betting, I would absolutely be giving the points. I think Kansas City is going to win by 7-10 points. (And I'll point out that I picked the Bucs to beat the Saints and Packers the last two Saturdays, so I do respect that team.)
Darrel Williams was the main back, and I don't see why that would change in the Super Bowl. A committee with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, perhaps, but Williams is the guy they trust more right now. And hard not to trust Kansas City's decision-making, since they've been making the right calls ever since drafting Mahomes in the first place.
And that's it for the conference championships; just one more game for 2020-2021 season. Thanks for reading all year. We'll talk about Super Bowl LV plenty over the next two weeks.