It will be a crazy offseason for quarterback movement, with maybe a dozen veteran starting quarterbacks changing teams. In most cases they won't be brought in to compete for a starting job; they'll be the starters. Some of those options are more desirable than others, for various reasons.
All other things being equal, the younger and more productive quarterbacks are the most appealing -- Deshaun Watson is the best example. And then there are the older guys who might be available who are playing at an MVP level, like Aaron Rodgers.
But some of the guys who are available are available for a reason. Either they've never quite lived up to their promise, or they've had their moments and gone to Pro Bowls and so forth, but might be a little overrated. I'm wondering if Matthew Stafford fits into that latter category.
Football is a team game, but the player most instrumental to wins and losses is the quarterback. And while it's reasonable to blame the teams around them and the lesser coaching staffs, the quarterback shares some responsibility for the team struggling to win games. Over the last three seasons, Stafford has done less winning than most of the available quarterbacks.
Among the 46 quarterbacks to start at least 10 games over the last three seasons, Stafford has won only 35 percent of his starts (he's 14-25 in that timeframe). That's worst among all the big-name veterans being discussed as possible trade or free-agency targets to start (those guys are in bold). Other quarterbacks with similar winning percentage are either washed-up veterans or youngsters who flopped and have moved on from their original teams, settling into journeyman backup roles.
| QUARTERBACK WIN-LOSS RECORD, 2018-2020 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | St | Cmp% | TD | Int | Rate | W | L | Win % |
| Patrick Mahomes | 45 | 66.1 | 114 | 23 | 109.3 | 37 | 8 | 82.2% |
| Lamar Jackson | 37 | 63.9 | 68 | 18 | 102.6 | 30 | 7 | 81.1% |
| Drew Brees | 38 | 73.2 | 83 | 15 | 113.0 | 30 | 8 | 78.9% |
| Tom Brady | 48 | 64.1 | 93 | 31 | 95.9 | 34 | 14 | 70.8% |
| Russell Wilson | 48 | 66.9 | 106 | 25 | 107.2 | 33 | 15 | 68.8% |
| Alex Smith | 16 | 64.3 | 16 | 13 | 82.6 | 11 | 5 | 68.8% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 25 | 67.5 | 39 | 21 | 98.6 | 17 | 8 | 68.0% |
| Aaron Rodgers | 48 | 64.8 | 99.0 | 11 | 104.3 | 32 | 15 | 66.7% |
| Jared Goff | 47 | 64.8 | 74 | 41 | 92.3 | 31 | 16 | 66.0% |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 38 | 65.3 | 57 | 30 | 89.8 | 25 | 13 | 65.8% |
| Josh Allen | 43 | 61.8 | 67 | 31 | 90.4 | 28 | 15 | 65.1% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 33 | 65.9 | 67 | 27 | 94.0 | 21 | 11 | 63.6% |
| Andrew Luck | 16 | 67.3 | 39 | 15 | 98.7 | 10 | 6 | 62.5% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 37 | 66.5 | 72 | 22 | 105.9 | 23 | 14 | 62.2% |
| Philip Rivers | 48 | 67.4 | 79 | 43 | 96.6 | 28 | 20 | 58.3% |
| Dak Prescott | 37 | 66.6 | 61 | 23 | 98.6 | 20 | 17 | 54.1% |
| Deshaun Watson | 47 | 68.7 | 85 | 28 | 104.7 | 25 | 22 | 53.2% |
| Kirk Cousins | 47 | 69.0 | 91 | 29 | 103.6 | 25 | 21 | 53.2% |
| Baker Mayfield | 45 | 61.9 | 75 | 43 | 89.1 | 23 | 22 | 51.1% |
| Marcus Mariota | 19 | 65.5 | 19 | 11 | 91.8 | 9 | 10 | 47.4% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 15 | 60.1 | 18 | 6 | 86.7 | 7 | 8 | 46.7% |
| Drew Lock | 18 | 59.1 | 23 | 18 | 79.1 | 8 | 10 | 44.4% |
| Carson Wentz | 39 | 63.5 | 64 | 29 | 89.5 | 17 | 21 | 43.6% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 21 | 68.5 | 25 | 14 | 93.4 | 9 | 12 | 42.9% |
| Cam Newton | 31 | 65.9 | 32 | 24 | 87.5 | 13 | 18 | 41.9% |
| Kyle Allen | 17 | 63.1 | 23 | 17 | 84.4 | 7 | 10 | 41.2% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 27 | 64.8 | 50 | 33 | 91.8 | 11 | 16 | 40.7% |
| Kyler Murray | 32 | 65.8 | 46 | 24 | 90.9 | 13 | 18 | 40.6% |
| Jameis Winston | 25 | 62.2 | 52 | 44 | 86.5 | 10 | 15 | 40.0% |
| Justin Herbert | 15 | 66.5 | 31 | 10 | 98.3 | 6 | 9 | 40.0% |
| Derek Carr | 48 | 68.9 | 67 | 27 | 98.6 | 19 | 29 | 39.6% |
| Matt Ryan | 47 | 66.9 | 87 | 32 | 97.7 | 18 | 29 | 38.3% |
| Nick Foles | 16 | 67.3 | 20 | 14 | 86.2 | 6 | 10 | 37.5% |
| Matthew Stafford | 40 | 65.0 | 66 | 26 | 95.8 | 14 | 25 | 35.0% |
| Gardner Minshew | 20 | 62.9 | 37 | 11 | 93.1 | 7 | 13 | 35.0% |
| Sam Darnold | 38 | 59.8 | 45 | 39 | 78.6 | 13 | 25 | 34.2% |
| Andy Dalton | 33 | 61.7 | 51 | 33 | 84.1 | 11 | 22 | 33.3% |
| Nick Mullens | 16 | 64.5 | 25 | 22 | 87.2 | 5 | 11 | 31.3% |
| Daniel Jones | 26 | 62.2 | 35 | 22 | 84.1 | 8 | 18 | 30.8% |
| Eli Manning | 20 | 65.2 | 27 | 16 | 90.4 | 6 | 14 | 30.0% |
| Case Keenum | 24 | 62.9 | 29 | 20 | 83.9 | 7 | 17 | 29.2% |
| Joe Flacco | 21 | 61.6 | 24 | 14 | 83.9 | 6 | 15 | 28.6% |
| Blake Bortles | 12 | 60.2 | 13 | 11 | 79.7 | 3 | 9 | 25.0% |
| Dwayne Haskins | 13 | 60.1 | 12 | 14 | 74.4 | 3 | 10 | 23.1% |
| Joe Burrow | 10 | 65.5 | 13 | 5 | 89.8 | 2 | 7 | 20.0% |
| Josh Rosen | 16 | 54.8 | 12 | 19 | 63.5 | 3 | 13 | 18.8% |
In defense of Stafford, note that his statistics are excellent. He has the best passer rating (95.8) of all of those win-poor quarterbacks. Hard to blame him too greatly for Detroit's struggles, just as it's hard to blame Matt Ryan for Atlanta's struggles to win games over the last three seasons.
Still, I think it's a point in favor of Watson (certainly) and also Prescott, with the likes of Goff and Trubisky more arguable. Goff and Trubisky have had far better defenses than Stafford. Prescott had a better offensive line, but he and Watson have also done a lot to carry their teams to wins. All four of them, though, are considerably younger.
I think on a certain team (Saints or 49ers perhaps) Stafford makes a lot of sense. But I'm not sure he'll be a fit everywhere, lifting a mediocre team into regular playoff contention. It hasn't happened in Detroit in recent years.
Search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com used in compiling data for table.
--Andy Richardson