Arthur Smith has taken over as Atlanta’s head coach, and that should result in a completely different offense for the Falcons. Gone, I think, are the days of firing passes all over the place.
With the play-callers the Falcons have had recently (especially Dirk Koetter) the tendency has been to construct pass-heavy offenses, at times ignoring the run. Over the last three years, Atlanta has run the ball on a league-high 65 percent of its plays.
With Smith, I think we’ll see a much more balanced approach. Maybe even one that emphasizes the run. When he was with the Titans, Smith relied primarily on a pounding running game, with those plays setting up play-action opportunities for downfield throws.
Smith, of course, isn’t bringing Derrick Henry with him. But I think we’ll see a lot more running. Some too-be-determined running back on that roster should post nice numbers. And with Matt Ryan (pictured) I think we’ll see him passing for a lot fewer yards. (And I suppose there’s also some chance that it’s a different quarterback under center, with the Falcons really hitting the reset button.)
The personnel issues will be figured out later, but I expect a big shift in personality. Smith was the offensive coordinator for two years in Tennessee, and those teams ran the ball more often than every team except Baltimore. The Falcons, meanwhile, in the same time period have passed the ball more than anyone else.
| PERCENTAGE OF PASS PLAYS (2019-2020) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Pass | Run | Pct |
| Atlanta | 43.8 | 24.1 | 64.5% |
| Jacksonville | 40.3 | 22.7 | 64.0% |
| Tampa Bay | 41.4 | 24.3 | 63.0% |
| Miami | 39.6 | 24.3 | 62.0% |
| Cincinnati | 40.4 | 24.9 | 61.9% |
| Chicago | 39.8 | 24.6 | 61.8% |
| Kansas City | 39.2 | 24.3 | 61.7% |
| Carolina | 39.9 | 24.8 | 61.7% |
| Detroit | 38.7 | 24.2 | 61.5% |
| NY Giants | 38.0 | 23.8 | 61.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 37.9 | 24.0 | 61.2% |
| Washington | 36.9 | 23.6 | 61.0% |
| LA Chargers | 40.4 | 26.0 | 60.8% |
| Philadelphia | 41.0 | 26.8 | 60.5% |
| Houston | 36.8 | 24.3 | 60.2% |
| Dallas | 40.7 | 27.5 | 59.7% |
| LA Rams | 39.7 | 27.3 | 59.2% |
| NY Jets | 34.8 | 24.7 | 58.6% |
| Arizona | 37.8 | 27.3 | 58.0% |
| Green Bay | 36.1 | 26.7 | 57.5% |
| Buffalo | 36.8 | 27.4 | 57.3% |
| Denver | 35.4 | 26.6 | 57.1% |
| Seattle | 36.8 | 27.9 | 56.9% |
| New Orleans | 36.2 | 28.1 | 56.3% |
| Las Vegas | 35.3 | 27.9 | 55.9% |
| Cleveland | 34.6 | 27.8 | 55.5% |
| Indianapolis | 34.9 | 29.1 | 54.6% |
| San Francisco | 35.1 | 29.2 | 54.6% |
| New England | 35.2 | 29.7 | 54.2% |
| Minnesota | 32.8 | 29.5 | 52.6% |
| Tennessee | 31.7 | 30.2 | 51.2% |
| Baltimore | 28.3 | 36.0 | 44.0% |
—Ian Allan