Early next week I'll take an in-depth look at the Super Bowl teams. For now, I'm thinking Kansas City should win and cover the 3-point spread; I'm a little surprised they're not favored by more. If there's a concern, it's Kansas City's injury-riddled offensive line against Tampa Bay's 4th-ranked pass rush.
The Bucs had 48 sacks during the season. Kansas City, meanwhile, just lost left tackle Eric Fisher (pictured) to an Achilles injury. This after having gone most of the season without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back), who Andy Reid indicates probably won't return for the Super Bowl. Obviously they've overcome his absence, but with Fisher also out, is this a weakness Tampa Bay will be able to exploit?
In his three years as a starter, Mahomes has played 11 games against defenses that finished the year ranked in top 10 in sacks. That includes last year's Super Bowl against the 49ers, and a game in Tampa Bay this season. Mahomes has gone 11-0 in those contests. Here are the relevant performance numbers.
| MAHOMES VS. TOP-10 PASS RUSHES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Yards | TDs | INTs | Sacks |
| 2018 | at Pitt. | W, 42-37 | 326 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | at Den. | W, 27-23 | 304 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | Den. | W, 30-23 | 303 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Ariz. | W, 26-14 | 249 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 2019 | at Jac. | W, 40-26 | 378 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | at N.E. | W, 23-16 | 283 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | S.F. | W, 31-20 | 286 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2020 | at Den. | W, 43-16 | 200 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2020 | at T.B. | W, 27-24 | 462 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 2020 | Den. | W, 22-16 | 318 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | at N.O. | W, 32-29 | 254 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Mahomes, of course, had his starting tackle duo in almost all of those games (Fisher missed half of last season, but was available in the playoffs). He won't have those players available next Sunday; it will likely be Mike Remmers at left tackle and Andrew Wylie on the right side.
All 11 of those opponents lost, but four of them were at least able to sack Mahomes 3-5 times, and San Francisco forced a pair of interceptions. Tampa Bay got to him twice, and both they and the Saints this season lost by just 3 points. And now they'll be working against a backup tackle duo.
If Tampa Bay is going to spring the upset, getting pressure on Mahomes will be part of it. Not that he's lost any of those previous games against strong pass rushes, but maybe, with a damaged line in front of him, they can pressure him into some incompletions or mistakes and win a close one. Even though the history suggests he'll come out on top anyway.
--Andy Richardson