Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Factoid

N'Keal Harry

Time running out on former first-round pick

At what point do we give up on N’Keal Harry? The Patriots selected him with the final pick in the first round of the 2019 draft, but he hasn’t done much in his first two seasons. Is there any chance of him turning things around?

It’s not fair to say Harry has been a disaster. He’s made a few catches here and there (especially late in his first year). He was hurt for the first half of his rookie season, and New England’s offense was generally dysfunctional last year.

Nonetheless, the Patriots got their best wide receiver play last year out of Jakobi Meyers, who came into the league the same year as Harry (only as an undrafted free agent). And Damiere Byrd (also unheralded) was more productive last year.

It looks uglier when you consider the many quality receivers who were selected after Harry in that 2019 draft: DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin. Diontae Johnson, Mecole Hardman, Scotty Miller, Darius Slayton and Hunter Renfrow have also been better.

I ran some numbers on this. In the last 20 years, there have been 37 other wide receivers who were selected in the first or second round who didn’t rank in the top 80 in production in either of their first two years (using PPR scoring). Only five of those players in their third season finished with top-40 numbers. Nelson Agholor (23rd), Robert Meachem (26th) and Darrius Heyward-Bey (28th) were the best.

Of the players in this group, Jordy Nelson went on to have the best career (not much production in his first three seasons, but he became a true superstar).

For the vast majority of guys, however, if you haven’t done it in your first two seasons, that’s a good indication it’s probably just not going to happen.

With Harry, my guess right now is that he won’t be drafted in the vast majority of leagues. But it’s early. Let’s see who else they’ve got at the position, who’s quarterbacking, and whether Harry looks likely to start. Maybe the light comes on for him. If he’s looking like he’ll be a starter, then I would think he’ll be selected in the late round with a flyer pick (on the off chance he develops into something).

On this chart below, these are all guys who didn’t rank in the top 80 in PPR production in either of their first two seasons. The numbers you see below show their numbers from their third year. The five who ranked in the top 40, I’ve got them tagged with black dots.

SLOW-STARTING WIDE RECEIVERS (last 20 years)
YearPlayerPkNoYdsTDPPRRk
2000Joe Jurevicius, NYG5524272157.281
2002• Jerry Porter, Oak.47516889178.430
2003Freddie Mitchell, Phil.25354982102.169
2004Reche Caldwell, S.D.4818310371.588
2004Tim Carter, NYG4612182138.5109
2005Tyrone Calico, Ten.6022191041.1107
2005Charles Rogers, Det.214197139.7110
2005Taylor Jacobs, Was.4411100021.0134
2005Bethel Johnson, N.E.45467116.7139
2006Devery Henderson, N.O.50327456143.941
2007Roscoe Parrish, Buff.5535352390.175
2007Mark Bradley, Chi.39671119.1135
2007Mike Williams, 2TM10790016.0143
2008Sinorice Moss, NYG4412153239.3108
2008Chad Jackson, Den.3611902.9167
2009• Robert Meachem, N.O.274572210185.426
2009Dwayne Jarrett, Car.4517196142.6108
2009Craig Davis, S.D.30652011.6140
2010Jordy Nelson, G.B.36455822115.265
2010Jerome Simpson, Cin.4620277365.993
2010Devin Thomas, 3TM34000.0187
2011• Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.7649754185.528
2011Brian Robiskie, Cle.3632505.5172
2012Arrelious Benn, T.B.3942608.2166
2013Jonathan Baldwin, S.F.2632805.8171
2014Brian Quick, St.L.3325375380.590
2014A.J. Jenkins, K.C.30993018.1145
2014Ryan Broyles, Det.5422504.5172
2015Justin Hunter, Ten.3422264154.4103
2016• Marqise Lee, Jac.39638514180.640
2016Paul Richardson, Sea.4521288156.3105
2016Cody Latimer, Den.56876015.6155
2017• Nelson Agholor, Phil.20627689193.523
2017Kevin White, Chi.72602.6189
2018Laquon Treadwell, Min.2335302171.294
2018Corey Coleman, NYG15571012.6165
2019John Ross, Cin.928506397.074
2021N'Keal Harry, N.E.32?????

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index