The Rams are taking a big swing on Matthew Stafford. What they’re hoping for, I think, is to get a quarterback who can connect on more big throws.
With Jared Goff, everything around him has to be right. He needs a clean pocket, he needs time to throw, and the receiver needs to be open. With Stafford, there’s more ability to squeeze the ball into tight windows, and there’s more ability to connect on big throws downfield.
Playing around with some of the numbers, I notice that the Rams didn’t have anyone average 12 yards per catch last year (among guys with at least 10 catches, anyway – tight end Johnny Mundt caught 4 passes for 53 yards). Way too much short passing around the line of scrimmage that didn’t challenge defenses.
If we look at all of the offenses since the 1970 merger (well over a thousand different teams) there have been only four other teams in which nobody on the offense averaged 12 yards per catch. It’s very rare for a team to go without at least somebody going for at least 13 yards per reception.
On this chart before, you’re see the best deep threat on each of these vertically challenged teams. In the case of the Rams, they had Josh Reynolds averaging only 11.9 per catch. Tyler Higbee averaged 11.8, and Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both averaged about 10.5. Sean McVay, I think, got sick of the limitations Goff put on the offense.
| SHORT-RANGE PASSING OFFENSES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2016 | Brent Celek, Phil. (TE) | 14 | 155 | 11.1 | 0 |
| 2006 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 103 | 1,147 | 11.1 | 5 |
| 2008 | Chris Henry, Cin. | 19 | 220 | 11.6 | 2 |
| 2020 | Josh Reynolds, LAR | 52 | 618 | 11.9 | 2 |
| 2001 | Rod Smith, Den. | 113 | 1,343 | 11.9 | 11 |
| 2007 | Arnaz Battle, S.F. | 50 | 600 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 2008 | Laveranues Coles, NYJ | 70 | 850 | 12.1 | 7 |
| 1995 | Calvin Williams, Phil. | 63 | 768 | 12.2 | 2 |
| 2010 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 111 | 1,355 | 12.2 | 6 |
| 2001 | David Terrell, Chi. | 34 | 415 | 12.2 | 4 |
| 2020 | Allen Robinson, Chi. | 102 | 1,250 | 12.3 | 6 |
| 2001 | Jimmy Smith, Jac. | 112 | 1,373 | 12.3 | 8 |
| 1974 | Don Zimmerman, Phil. | 30 | 368 | 12.3 | 2 |
| 1996 | Bert Emanuel, Atl. | 75 | 921 | 12.3 | 6 |
| 2004 | Randy Hymes, Balt. | 26 | 323 | 12.4 | 2 |
| 1992 | Webster Slaughter, Hou. | 39 | 486 | 12.5 | 4 |
| 2005 | Derrick Mason, Balt. | 86 | 1,073 | 12.5 | 3 |
| 2012 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 45 | 562 | 12.5 | 2 |
| 1991 | Jessie Hester, Ind. | 60 | 753 | 12.6 | 5 |
| 2019 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 52 | 656 | 12.6 | 2 |
| 1999 | J.J. Stokes, S.F. | 34 | 429 | 12.6 | 3 |
| 2011 | Josh Cribbs, Cle. | 41 | 518 | 12.6 | 4 |
| 2004 | Rod Gardner, Was. | 51 | 650 | 12.8 | 5 |
| 1998 | Jeff Graham, Phil. | 47 | 600 | 12.8 | 2 |
| 1995 | Ryan Yarborough, NYJ | 18 | 230 | 12.8 | 2 |
| 2005 | Corey Bradford, Hou. | 34 | 436 | 12.8 | 5 |
| 1993 | Tim McGee, Was. | 39 | 500 | 12.8 | 3 |
| 2002 | Jimmy Smith, Jac. | 80 | 1,027 | 12.8 | 7 |
| 2007 | Derek Hagan, Mia. | 29 | 373 | 12.9 | 2 |
| 2014 | Mike Wallace, Mia. | 67 | 862 | 12.9 | 10 |
| 2015 | Albert Wilson, K.C. | 35 | 451 | 12.9 | 2 |
| 2009 | Nate Burleson, Sea. | 63 | 812 | 12.9 | 3 |
| 2000 | Johnnie Morton, Det. | 61 | 788 | 12.9 | 3 |
| 1993 | Anthony Carter, Min. | 60 | 775 | 12.9 | 5 |
| 2009 | Steve Breaston, Ariz. | 55 | 712 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 1996 | Curtis Conway, Chi. | 81 | 1,049 | 13.0 | 7 |
| 1994 | Rob Moore, NYJ | 78 | 1,010 | 13.0 | 6 |
| 1996 | Johnnie Morton, Det. | 55 | 714 | 13.0 | 6 |
With Stafford, I think there will be more ability to push the ball down the field. He was in Detroit for 12 years, and in that run had 12 starting receivers who averaged at least 14.5 yards per catch.
Stafford with this team doesn’t have a Calvin Johnson or even a Kenny Golladay, but there is decent pass-catching talent. Josh Reynolds is a free agent, but Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are both capable, and Van Jefferson will probably be ready for a more substantial role.
| STAFFORD'S DEEP THREAT RECEIVERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2019 | Kenny Golladay | 65 | 1,190 | 18.3 | 11 |
| 2017 | Marvin Jones | 61 | 1,101 | 18.1 | 9 |
| 2013 | Calvin Johnson | 84 | 1,492 | 17.8 | 12 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | 96 | 1,681 | 17.5 | 16 |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson | 78 | 1,331 | 17.1 | 12 |
| 2016 | Marvin Jones | 55 | 930 | 16.9 | 4 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson | 122 | 1,964 | 16.1 | 5 |
| 2018 | Kenny Golladay | 70 | 1,063 | 15.2 | 5 |
| 2014 | Calvin Johnson | 71 | 1,077 | 15.2 | 8 |
| 2009 | Calvin Johnson | 67 | 984 | 14.7 | 5 |
| 2010 | Calvin Johnson | 77 | 1,120 | 14.6 | 12 |
| 2018 | Marvin Jones | 35 | 508 | 14.5 | 5 |
—Ian Allan