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Matthew Stafford

Stafford could open up LA's passing game

The Rams are taking a big swing on Matthew Stafford. What they’re hoping for, I think, is to get a quarterback who can connect on more big throws.

With Jared Goff, everything around him has to be right. He needs a clean pocket, he needs time to throw, and the receiver needs to be open. With Stafford, there’s more ability to squeeze the ball into tight windows, and there’s more ability to connect on big throws downfield.

Playing around with some of the numbers, I notice that the Rams didn’t have anyone average 12 yards per catch last year (among guys with at least 10 catches, anyway – tight end Johnny Mundt caught 4 passes for 53 yards). Way too much short passing around the line of scrimmage that didn’t challenge defenses.

If we look at all of the offenses since the 1970 merger (well over a thousand different teams) there have been only four other teams in which nobody on the offense averaged 12 yards per catch. It’s very rare for a team to go without at least somebody going for at least 13 yards per reception.

On this chart before, you’re see the best deep threat on each of these vertically challenged teams. In the case of the Rams, they had Josh Reynolds averaging only 11.9 per catch. Tyler Higbee averaged 11.8, and Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both averaged about 10.5. Sean McVay, I think, got sick of the limitations Goff put on the offense.

SHORT-RANGE PASSING OFFENSES
YearPlayerNoYardsAvgTD
2016Brent Celek, Phil. (TE)1415511.10
2006Andre Johnson, Hou.1031,14711.15
2008Chris Henry, Cin.1922011.62
2020Josh Reynolds, LAR5261811.92
2001Rod Smith, Den.1131,34311.911
2007Arnaz Battle, S.F.5060012.05
2008Laveranues Coles, NYJ7085012.17
1995Calvin Williams, Phil.6376812.22
2010Reggie Wayne, Ind.1111,35512.26
2001David Terrell, Chi.3441512.24
2020Allen Robinson, Chi.1021,25012.36
2001Jimmy Smith, Jac.1121,37312.38
1974Don Zimmerman, Phil.3036812.32
1996Bert Emanuel, Atl.7592112.36
2004Randy Hymes, Balt.2632312.42
1992Webster Slaughter, Hou.3948612.54
2005Derrick Mason, Balt.861,07312.53
2012Michael Floyd, Ariz.4556212.52
1991Jessie Hester, Ind.6075312.65
2019Anthony Miller, Chi.5265612.62
1999J.J. Stokes, S.F.3442912.63
2011Josh Cribbs, Cle.4151812.64
2004Rod Gardner, Was.5165012.85
1998Jeff Graham, Phil.4760012.82
1995Ryan Yarborough, NYJ1823012.82
2005Corey Bradford, Hou.3443612.85
1993Tim McGee, Was.3950012.83
2002Jimmy Smith, Jac.801,02712.87
2007Derek Hagan, Mia.2937312.92
2014Mike Wallace, Mia.6786212.910
2015Albert Wilson, K.C.3545112.92
2009Nate Burleson, Sea.6381212.93
2000Johnnie Morton, Det.6178812.93
1993Anthony Carter, Min.6077512.95
2009Steve Breaston, Ariz.5571213.03
1996Curtis Conway, Chi.811,04913.07
1994Rob Moore, NYJ781,01013.06
1996Johnnie Morton, Det.5571413.06

With Stafford, I think there will be more ability to push the ball down the field. He was in Detroit for 12 years, and in that run had 12 starting receivers who averaged at least 14.5 yards per catch.

Stafford with this team doesn’t have a Calvin Johnson or even a Kenny Golladay, but there is decent pass-catching talent. Josh Reynolds is a free agent, but Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are both capable, and Van Jefferson will probably be ready for a more substantial role.

STAFFORD'S DEEP THREAT RECEIVERS
YearPlayerRecYdsAvgTD
2019Kenny Golladay651,19018.311
2017Marvin Jones611,10118.19
2013Calvin Johnson841,49217.812
2011Calvin Johnson961,68117.516
2008Calvin Johnson781,33117.112
2016Marvin Jones5593016.94
2012Calvin Johnson1221,96416.15
2018Kenny Golladay701,06315.25
2014Calvin Johnson711,07715.28
2009Calvin Johnson6798414.75
2010Calvin Johnson771,12014.612
2018Marvin Jones3550814.55

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index