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Fantasy Baseball Index

Baseball: Cheap speed targets

It happens every draft season. You're midway through your draft, and the question inevitably creeps into the back of your mind: "Do I have enough speed?" If you're like me, the answer is often "no." Unfortunately, there just aren't enough elite speedsters to go around, so there are always going to be teams that need to find steals later in the draft. If the end of your draft is approaching and you find yourself short on speed, don't panic. Take a deep breath. There is hope. It might take a little digging, but some legit steals upside is being largely ignored by the fantasy community. Using NFBC ADP (from Feb. 1 to today), here's a look at some bargain-bin speedsters who are available at pick 250 and beyond.

Garrett Hampson, 2B/OF, Rockies – 259.5 ADP (pictured)
It feels like we've been talking about Hampson's impending breakout for years. Hampson got his first real taste of regular playing time in 2020, and he hit just .234/.287/.383 with a 32.6% strikeout rate in 53 games. His career .245/.305/.385 slash line in 559 plate appearances isn't exactly inspiring, either. That said, Nolan Arenado's trade to the Cardinals opens up more playing time in Colorado's infield, so we can't close the book on Hampson just yet. Despite his limitations, the 26-year-old has enough power for double-digit homers and, more importantly, he still possesses top-end speed that ranks in the 99th percentile. That elite speed has led to 23 stolen bases in 559 career big-league PAs and 36-plus steals three times in the minors. With regular playing time between second base and the outfield in 2021, Hampson's wheels will keep him on the fantasy radar for at least one more year.


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Manuel Margot, OF, Rays – 269.6 ADP
With speed being such a commodity these days, it's somewhat surprising that Margot isn't generating more buzz. Only 13 players swiped double-digit bags last season, and Margot hit that mark despite starting only 37 games. While the speedster topped out at 20 steals with San Diego, he ran much more frequently with the Rays, suggesting he could push for 25-plus stolen bases in 2021 if he plays nearly every day. Margot may have hit only one home run during the regular season, but it's worth noting that he clubbed five dingers in the postseason, so the power didn't completely disappear. A return to double-digit homers in 2021 is a good bet. As a player with strong bat-to-ball skills (career 18.6% K rate), solid power, and great stolen-base potential, Margot deserves more attention than he's getting.

Myles Straw, OF, Astros – 391.2 ADP
The departure of George Springer to Toronto left a vacancy in Houston's outfield, and Straw is the favorite to step in and take over center-field duties. The 26-year-old Straw is one of these all-speed, no-power players, so you'll have to make up for his lack of pop elsewhere on your roster. The stolen base potential might just be worth it, though. Straw is one of the fastest players in baseball. He swiped 72 bags between Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors in 2018, and he snagged six bags in just 86 plate appearances last season. Straw has also consistently posted double-digit walk rates in his professional career, including a 14.8% walk rate in 2019, so there's potential for him to move up in the batting order. Manager Dusty Baker has even suggested that Straw is a candidate to bat leadoff this season. It's not difficult to envision Straw reaching 30 steals in 2021, which isn't too shabby for a guy going undrafted in many leagues.

Oscar Mercado, OF, Cleveland – 405.5 ADP
Things didn't quite work out for Mercado last season. After making some noise in 2019, he completely collapsed in 2020, putting up a .128/.174/.174 triple slash in 36 games, which included a demotion to the minors in mid-August. While Cleveland will understandably have a shorter leash on Mercado this season, he's still in line to be the everyday center fielder, and that gives him some fantasy appeal. Despite last season's poor showing, Mercado still possesses an intriguing combination of power and speed. Between Triple-A and the majors in 2019, he hit a combined 19 homers and stole 29 bases, with 15 homers and 15 steals coming in the big leagues. He also maintained his high-end speed last year, ranking top-20 in Sprint Speed (29.5 ft/sec). In short, there's still enough here to make Mercado worth a late-round dart.

Harrison Bader, OF, Cardinals – 515.1 ADPBader has yet to really prove that he deserves to be in the lineup every day, as his career splits against right-handed pitching (.223/.317/.352) suggest he should be platooned. However, the Cardinals like his defense and have already tabbed him as their Opening Day center fielder. That assured playing time makes Bader somewhat interesting at his current ADP. Bader's Sprint Speed score (29.4 ft/sec) ranked top-10 in baseball last season, so he certainly has the wheels to steal 20-plus bases if he's in the lineup every day. He also has enough pop to swat 15-18 homers. Expecting Bader to cut down on the strikeouts (career 29.1% K rate) and step things up against right-handed pitching this season may be a lot to ask, but he's a low-risk investment for a player with a nice speed/power combo.

Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates – 614.6 ADP
With an ADP over 600, it's safe to say that Oliva is firmly off the fantasy radar right now. Even on a low-level team like the Pirates, the 25-year-old Oliva will have to earn playing time, but there are reasons for optimism if he finds a regular role. While he didn't make a strong impression in a six-game sample with the Bucs in 2020, Oliva showcased his speed with 33 steals at High-A in 2018 and 36 swipes at Double-A in 2019. Pair that speed with a good eye at the plate and a 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame that could lead to some future power, and Oliva warrants some attention as a late-round flyer, or at least someone to keep an eye on early in the season.

Tim Locastro, OF, Diamondbacks – 624.1 ADP
It's a little ironic that the last player on our list is actually the fastest of the bunch. At 30.7 ft/sec, Locastro topped the Sprint Speed leaderboard for the second straight season in 2020. In other words, he's a straight-up burner. After hitting .290/.395/.464 in limited playing time last season, the 28-year-old looks to be penciled in as Arizona's starting center fielder at the start of Spring Training. Don't expect more than a handful of homers, but Locastro makes consistent contact, has decent on-base skills, and has swiped 26 bags in just 347 major league plate appearances. He was diagnosed with COVID-19 in early March, but he should still have plenty of time to get ready by Opening Day. Locastro could easily be one of fantasy's best cheap-speed bargains this draft season.

-by Mike Sheets

Fantasy Index