The NFL is almost certainly going to a 17-game schedule, and that will create a little more separation in strength of schedule. That extra game will be driven by results each year, with first-place teams playing against each other (and last-place teams getting an additional game against another last-place team).
It’s not necessarily a big deal. Strength of schedule itself isn’t a huge driver, in my opinion. But it’s another dimension that can factored in.
Most notably, for 2021, there should be two additional big-time matchups between teams that won their divisions – Kansas City against Green Bay, and Indianapolis playing Tampa Bay. The other first-place matchups aren’t as notable. Seattle vs. Pittsburgh (the Steelers don’t look likely to finish in the top 2 in the AFC North this year), and Buffalo playing Washington (which also doesn’t seem like a top-tier team).
The last-place matchups, if reports are accurate, will feature Eagles-Jets, Falcons-Jaguars, Lions-Broncos and 49ers-Bengals.
Totaling up all the wins and losses, Philadelphia projects to play by far the league’s easiest schedule, with 17 games against opponents that went a combined 117-155 last year. (Thus the photo of Miles Sanders.) The Steelers and Ravens project to play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (wins) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Philadelphia | 117 | 155 | 0 | .430 |
Dallas | 122 | 148 | 2 | .452 |
Atlanta | 123 | 148 | 1 | .454 |
Tampa Bay | 126 | 145 | 1 | .465 |
Denver | 127 | 143 | 2 | .471 |
Miami | 128 | 144 | 0 | .471 |
Carolina | 128 | 143 | 1 | .472 |
NY Giants | 128 | 142 | 2 | .474 |
Indianapolis | 130 | 142 | 0 | .478 |
Buffalo | 130 | 142 | 0 | .478 |
New Orleans | 131 | 140 | 1 | .483 |
New England | 133 | 139 | 0 | .489 |
San Francisco | 132 | 138 | 2 | .489 |
NY Jets | 132 | 138 | 2 | .489 |
Jacksonville | 133 | 138 | 1 | .491 |
LA Chargers | 133 | 137 | 2 | .493 |
Houston | 137 | 135 | 0 | .504 |
Washington | 136 | 134 | 2 | .504 |
Arizona | 138 | 134 | 0 | .507 |
Tennessee | 138 | 134 | 0 | .507 |
Kansas City | 138 | 132 | 2 | .511 |
Seattle | 139 | 133 | 0 | .511 |
LA Rams | 140 | 132 | 0 | .515 |
Cleveland | 140 | 130 | 2 | .518 |
Las Vegas | 142 | 128 | 2 | .526 |
Cincinnati | 144 | 128 | 0 | .529 |
Detroit | 143 | 127 | 2 | .529 |
Minnesota | 144 | 127 | 1 | .531 |
Green Bay | 147 | 124 | 1 | .542 |
Chicago | 149 | 122 | 1 | .550 |
Baltimore | 152 | 118 | 2 | .563 |
Pittsburgh | 155 | 115 | 2 | .574 |
If you want to use points rather than wins, Denver and New England project to play the easiest schedules, while Tampa Bay and Buffalo project to play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points) | |
---|---|
Team | PA |
Denver | 25.9 |
New England | 25.5 |
Pittsburgh | 25.4 |
Kansas City | 25.4 |
Philadelphia | 25.4 |
LA Chargers | 25.4 |
Arizona | 25.4 |
Indianapolis | 25.3 |
Cincinnati | 25.2 |
Washington | 25.1 |
San Francisco | 25.1 |
Chicago | 25.0 |
Houston | 24.9 |
Miami | 24.9 |
Jacksonville | 24.9 |
LA Rams | 24.9 |
Baltimore | 24.8 |
Cleveland | 24.7 |
Minnesota | 24.6 |
Atlanta | 24.6 |
NY Jets | 24.6 |
NY Giants | 24.5 |
Green Bay | 24.4 |
Dallas | 24.3 |
New Orleans | 24.3 |
Carolina | 24.3 |
Tennessee | 24.2 |
Detroit | 24.2 |
Seattle | 24.2 |
Las Vegas | 24.2 |
Buffalo | 24.1 |
Tampa Bay | 23.7 |
Note, by the way, that only three teams project to have top-10 schedules (easy schedules) using both wins and points – Philadelphia, Denver and Indianapolis. And only three rank in the bottom 10 in both formats (Green Bay, Detroit and Las Vegas).
Six teams (and this is weird) project to have a top-10 schedule in one of those two formats but a bottom-10 in the other: Bucs, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys, Bengals and Steelers.
—Ian Allan