The NFL is almost certainly going to a 17-game schedule, and that will create a little more separation in strength of schedule. That extra game will be driven by results each year, with first-place teams playing against each other (and last-place teams getting an additional game against another last-place team).
It’s not necessarily a big deal. Strength of schedule itself isn’t a huge driver, in my opinion. But it’s another dimension that can factored in.
Most notably, for 2021, there should be two additional big-time matchups between teams that won their divisions – Kansas City against Green Bay, and Indianapolis playing Tampa Bay. The other first-place matchups aren’t as notable. Seattle vs. Pittsburgh (the Steelers don’t look likely to finish in the top 2 in the AFC North this year), and Buffalo playing Washington (which also doesn’t seem like a top-tier team).
The last-place matchups, if reports are accurate, will feature Eagles-Jets, Falcons-Jaguars, Lions-Broncos and 49ers-Bengals.
Totaling up all the wins and losses, Philadelphia projects to play by far the league’s easiest schedule, with 17 games against opponents that went a combined 117-155 last year. (Thus the photo of Miles Sanders.) The Steelers and Ravens project to play the hardest schedules.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (wins) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Philadelphia | 117 | 155 | 0 | .430 |
| Dallas | 122 | 148 | 2 | .452 |
| Atlanta | 123 | 148 | 1 | .454 |
| Tampa Bay | 126 | 145 | 1 | .465 |
| Denver | 127 | 143 | 2 | .471 |
| Miami | 128 | 144 | 0 | .471 |
| Carolina | 128 | 143 | 1 | .472 |
| NY Giants | 128 | 142 | 2 | .474 |
| Indianapolis | 130 | 142 | 0 | .478 |
| Buffalo | 130 | 142 | 0 | .478 |
| New Orleans | 131 | 140 | 1 | .483 |
| New England | 133 | 139 | 0 | .489 |
| San Francisco | 132 | 138 | 2 | .489 |
| NY Jets | 132 | 138 | 2 | .489 |
| Jacksonville | 133 | 138 | 1 | .491 |
| LA Chargers | 133 | 137 | 2 | .493 |
| Houston | 137 | 135 | 0 | .504 |
| Washington | 136 | 134 | 2 | .504 |
| Arizona | 138 | 134 | 0 | .507 |
| Tennessee | 138 | 134 | 0 | .507 |
| Kansas City | 138 | 132 | 2 | .511 |
| Seattle | 139 | 133 | 0 | .511 |
| LA Rams | 140 | 132 | 0 | .515 |
| Cleveland | 140 | 130 | 2 | .518 |
| Las Vegas | 142 | 128 | 2 | .526 |
| Cincinnati | 144 | 128 | 0 | .529 |
| Detroit | 143 | 127 | 2 | .529 |
| Minnesota | 144 | 127 | 1 | .531 |
| Green Bay | 147 | 124 | 1 | .542 |
| Chicago | 149 | 122 | 1 | .550 |
| Baltimore | 152 | 118 | 2 | .563 |
| Pittsburgh | 155 | 115 | 2 | .574 |
If you want to use points rather than wins, Denver and New England project to play the easiest schedules, while Tampa Bay and Buffalo project to play the hardest schedules.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points) | |
|---|---|
| Team | PA |
| Denver | 25.9 |
| New England | 25.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 25.4 |
| Kansas City | 25.4 |
| Philadelphia | 25.4 |
| LA Chargers | 25.4 |
| Arizona | 25.4 |
| Indianapolis | 25.3 |
| Cincinnati | 25.2 |
| Washington | 25.1 |
| San Francisco | 25.1 |
| Chicago | 25.0 |
| Houston | 24.9 |
| Miami | 24.9 |
| Jacksonville | 24.9 |
| LA Rams | 24.9 |
| Baltimore | 24.8 |
| Cleveland | 24.7 |
| Minnesota | 24.6 |
| Atlanta | 24.6 |
| NY Jets | 24.6 |
| NY Giants | 24.5 |
| Green Bay | 24.4 |
| Dallas | 24.3 |
| New Orleans | 24.3 |
| Carolina | 24.3 |
| Tennessee | 24.2 |
| Detroit | 24.2 |
| Seattle | 24.2 |
| Las Vegas | 24.2 |
| Buffalo | 24.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 23.7 |
Note, by the way, that only three teams project to have top-10 schedules (easy schedules) using both wins and points – Philadelphia, Denver and Indianapolis. And only three rank in the bottom 10 in both formats (Green Bay, Detroit and Las Vegas).
Six teams (and this is weird) project to have a top-10 schedule in one of those two formats but a bottom-10 in the other: Bucs, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys, Bengals and Steelers.
—Ian Allan