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Strength of schedule

17th game creates more separation in schedule difficulty

The NFL is almost certainly going to a 17-game schedule, and that will create a little more separation in strength of schedule. That extra game will be driven by results each year, with first-place teams playing against each other (and last-place teams getting an additional game against another last-place team).

It’s not necessarily a big deal. Strength of schedule itself isn’t a huge driver, in my opinion. But it’s another dimension that can factored in.

Most notably, for 2021, there should be two additional big-time matchups between teams that won their divisions – Kansas City against Green Bay, and Indianapolis playing Tampa Bay. The other first-place matchups aren’t as notable. Seattle vs. Pittsburgh (the Steelers don’t look likely to finish in the top 2 in the AFC North this year), and Buffalo playing Washington (which also doesn’t seem like a top-tier team).

The last-place matchups, if reports are accurate, will feature Eagles-Jets, Falcons-Jaguars, Lions-Broncos and 49ers-Bengals.

Totaling up all the wins and losses, Philadelphia projects to play by far the league’s easiest schedule, with 17 games against opponents that went a combined 117-155 last year. (Thus the photo of Miles Sanders.) The Steelers and Ravens project to play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (wins)
TeamWLTPct
Philadelphia1171550.430
Dallas1221482.452
Atlanta1231481.454
Tampa Bay1261451.465
Denver1271432.471
Miami1281440.471
Carolina1281431.472
NY Giants1281422.474
Indianapolis1301420.478
Buffalo1301420.478
New Orleans1311401.483
New England1331390.489
San Francisco1321382.489
NY Jets1321382.489
Jacksonville1331381.491
LA Chargers1331372.493
Houston1371350.504
Washington1361342.504
Arizona1381340.507
Tennessee1381340.507
Kansas City1381322.511
Seattle1391330.511
LA Rams1401320.515
Cleveland1401302.518
Las Vegas1421282.526
Cincinnati1441280.529
Detroit1431272.529
Minnesota1441271.531
Green Bay1471241.542
Chicago1491221.550
Baltimore1521182.563
Pittsburgh1551152.574

If you want to use points rather than wins, Denver and New England project to play the easiest schedules, while Tampa Bay and Buffalo project to play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points)
TeamPA
Denver25.9
New England25.5
Pittsburgh25.4
Kansas City25.4
Philadelphia25.4
LA Chargers25.4
Arizona25.4
Indianapolis25.3
Cincinnati25.2
Washington25.1
San Francisco25.1
Chicago25.0
Houston24.9
Miami24.9
Jacksonville24.9
LA Rams24.9
Baltimore24.8
Cleveland24.7
Minnesota24.6
Atlanta24.6
NY Jets24.6
NY Giants24.5
Green Bay24.4
Dallas24.3
New Orleans24.3
Carolina24.3
Tennessee24.2
Detroit24.2
Seattle24.2
Las Vegas24.2
Buffalo24.1
Tampa Bay23.7

Note, by the way, that only three teams project to have top-10 schedules (easy schedules) using both wins and points – Philadelphia, Denver and Indianapolis. And only three rank in the bottom 10 in both formats (Green Bay, Detroit and Las Vegas).

Six teams (and this is weird) project to have a top-10 schedule in one of those two formats but a bottom-10 in the other: Bucs, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys, Bengals and Steelers.

—Ian Allan

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