While there's debate over exactly which quarterbacks will go 1-2-3, there's no doubt that those picks in the upcoming draft will in fact be used on quarterbacks. It's at No. 4 where the positional mystery begins. Will the Atlanta Falcons stay put and draft a pass catcher, or will they trade down with a quarterback-desperate team. Or will they themselves draft a quarterback?
I've been surprised by speculation that Atlanta will draft a quarterback. The team restructured Matt Ryan's contract last month to create some cap room for 2021. He now has a $48 million cap hit for 2022. If they trade or release him next offseason, it's still a $40 million hit. Is it possible, yes, but very unlikely. Draft a quarterback at No. 4 and sit him for two years? It simply doesn't happen.
Another year or two of Ryan starting for Atlanta is defensible for football reasons, too. He's 35 (36 next month); for a pocket passer who isn't throwing his body around the field and into piles of tacklers each week, no reason why he can't still be one of the league's better quarterbacks. Plenty of other elite passers have done it lately.
Over the last 10 years, 34 quarterbacks aged 35 or older have posted top-20 fantasy numbers. That includes Ryan himself, finishing as the 12th-best quarterback last season. Almost none of those guys did anything noteworthy as runners; they just stood in the pocket and slung it.
| TOP 20 FANTASY QUARTERBACKS, 2011-2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 37 | 5477 | 55 | 10 | -31 | 1 | 498.8 | 1 |
| 2015 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 38 | 4770 | 36 | 7 | 53 | 3 | 410.4 | 2 |
| 2016 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 37 | 5208 | 37 | 15 | 20 | 2 | 422.4 | 2 |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 36 | 5129 | 34 | 16 | 98 | 3 | 429.2 | 2 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 40 | 4577 | 32 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 363.7 | 3 |
| 2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 38 | 4727 | 39 | 15 | -24 | 0 | 394.0 | 3 |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 37 | 4299 | 48 | 5 | 149 | 3 | 440.2 | 3 |
| 2012 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 35 | 4827 | 34 | 8 | 32 | 4 | 404.6 | 3 |
| 2014 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 35 | 4952 | 33 | 17 | 68 | 1 | 393.5 | 4 |
| 2015 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 36 | 4671 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 382.0 | 5 |
| 2015 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 36 | 4870 | 32 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 378.9 | 6 |
| 2012 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 36 | 4659 | 37 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 383.6 | 6 |
| 2016 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | 35 | 4386 | 33 | 21 | 35 | 0 | 354.8 | 6 |
| 2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 43 | 4633 | 40 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 410.2 | 7 |
| 2017 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 36 | 4515 | 28 | 10 | -2 | 0 | 337.6 | 7 |
| 2018 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 35 | 4442 | 25 | 2 | 269 | 2 | 367.0 | 7 |
| 2018 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 39 | 3992 | 32 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 356.9 | 9 |
| 2017 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 35 | 4251 | 28 | 14 | 47 | 0 | 333.3 | 9 |
| 2018 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 37 | 4308 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 354.1 | 10 |
| 2017 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 38 | 4334 | 23 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 321.9 | 11 |
| 2014 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 37 | 4109 | 33 | 9 | 57 | 0 | 343.2 | 11 |
| 2013 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 36 | 4343 | 25 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 323.0 | 11 |
| 2019 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 36 | 4002 | 26 | 4 | 183 | 1 | 334.4 | 12 |
| 2020 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 35 | 4581 | 26 | 11 | 92 | 2 | 356.2 | 12 |
| 2018 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 41 | 4355 | 29 | 11 | 35 | 2 | 350.9 | 13 |
| 2019 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 38 | 4615 | 23 | 20 | 29 | 0 | 327.7 | 13 |
| 2020 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 38 | 3803 | 33 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 327.2 | 14 |
| 2019 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 42 | 4057 | 24 | 8 | 34 | 3 | 322.3 | 15 |
| 2016 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 37 | 4233 | 26 | 14 | 38 | 0 | 321.5 | 16 |
| 2018 | Eli Manning, NYG | 37 | 4299 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 1 | 313.0 | 16 |
| 2019 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia. | 37 | 3529 | 20 | 13 | 243 | 4 | 306.8 | 18 |
| 2011 | Matt Hasselbeck, Ten. | 36 | 3571 | 18 | 14 | 52 | 0 | 255.8 | 18 |
| 2020 | Philip Rivers, Ind. | 39 | 4169 | 24 | 11 | -8 | 0 | 305.6 | 20 |
| 2016 | Eli Manning, NYG | 35 | 4027 | 26 | 16 | -9 | 0 | 304.5 | 20 |
You never say never. The Falcons are attending Justin Fields' Pro Day today, and maybe they fall in love with him, the 49ers draft Mac Jones or Trey Lance, and the Falcons can't resist the urge to possibly draft their franchise guy.
But I'm sticking to the idea they trade out of that spot (I don't really buy the talk they'll draft Kyle Pitts there), picking up an extra first-rounder or more. I think they can compete with Ryan at quarterback over the next couple of seasons, if they add a little more talent elsewhere. That's a lot more likely than taking a quarterback to push him out the door.
--Andy Richardson