Playing around with the schedule, I notice that the Carolina Panthers are set up for a fast start. Christian McCaffrey, it seems, will have every opportunity to put up the best statistics in the early going.
Looking at just the first five games for each team (ignoring byes) Carolina starts against teams that went a combined 28-51-1 last year. Four other teams start with five games against opponents who finished 15 or more games under .500, and they’re all teams that missed the playoffs last year – Falcons, Broncos, Jets, Jaguars.
Four teams, meanwhile, start with five games against teams that (collectively) won at least 60 percent of their games last year. Hard schedules. Colts lead the way, followed by Dolphins, Rams and Raiders. Those teams are positioned to perhaps struggle a bit more in their early games. (Behind that group are four teams with notable offenses – Bills, KC, Chargers, Seahawks.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-5) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Carolina | 28 | 51 | 1 | .356 |
Atlanta | 30 | 49 | 1 | .381 |
Denver | 32 | 48 | 0 | .400 |
NY Jets | 32 | 48 | 0 | .400 |
Jacksonville | 32 | 47 | 1 | .406 |
Dallas | 33 | 46 | 1 | .419 |
NY Giants | 34 | 46 | 0 | .425 |
Tennessee | 34 | 46 | 0 | .425 |
Arizona | 35 | 45 | 0 | .438 |
Philadelphia | 35 | 45 | 0 | .438 |
Houston | 37 | 43 | 0 | .463 |
Tampa Bay | 37 | 43 | 0 | .463 |
New Orleans | 38 | 42 | 0 | .475 |
Chicago | 38 | 41 | 1 | .481 |
New England | 39 | 41 | 0 | .488 |
Green Bay | 39 | 40 | 1 | .494 |
Cleveland | 40 | 40 | 0 | .500 |
Minnesota | 40 | 39 | 1 | .506 |
Cincinnati | 41 | 39 | 0 | .513 |
Washington | 42 | 38 | 0 | .525 |
San Francisco | 42 | 37 | 1 | .531 |
Baltimore | 43 | 37 | 0 | .538 |
Pittsburgh | 43 | 36 | 1 | .544 |
Detroit | 45 | 35 | 0 | .563 |
Seattle | 45 | 35 | 0 | .563 |
LA Chargers | 46 | 34 | 0 | .575 |
Kansas City | 46 | 33 | 1 | .581 |
Buffalo | 47 | 33 | 0 | .588 |
Las Vegas | 48 | 32 | 0 | .600 |
LA Rams | 50 | 30 | 0 | .625 |
Miami | 50 | 30 | 0 | .625 |
Indianapolis | 54 | 26 | 0 | .675 |
For a slightly more complex look, we can measure the first eight games of each team against the last eight. (In most fantasy leagues, the 17th game isn’t used, so I’m not including those – I’m looking at the last eight that would be used in most fantasy leagues.)
On this one, it shows the Carolina, Baltimore, Green Bay and Cincinnati have the most front-loaded schedules. They tend to have their easier games first, with the meatier opponents coming later.
Indianapolis, Washington, San Francisco and Miami, meanwhile, have backloaded schedules. For those teams, they’re tending to play hard games in September-October and their softer opponents in the final two months.
SCHEDULES (1st H vs. 2nd H) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | 1st 8 | Last 8 | Diff |
Carolina | 45-82-1 | 72-56-0 | -.207 |
Baltimore | 61-66-1 | 79-48-1 | -.141 |
Green Bay | 62-65-1 | 80-48-0 | -.137 |
Cincinnati | 59-69-0 | 74-54-0 | -.117 |
New England | 54-74-0 | 69-59-0 | -.117 |
Dallas | 52-75-1 | 66-62-0 | -.105 |
Minnesota | 62-65-1 | 74-54-0 | -.090 |
NY Jets | 54-73-1 | 65-62-1 | -.086 |
Las Vegas | 63-64-1 | 72-55-1 | -.070 |
Cleveland | 65-63-0 | 71-56-1 | -.051 |
Chicago | 68-59-1 | 74-54-0 | -.043 |
LA Rams | 65-63-0 | 69-59-0 | -.031 |
Detroit | 63-63-2 | 67-61-0 | -.023 |
Arizona | 63-65-0 | 63-65-0 | .000 |
Tampa Bay | 61-66-1 | 60-68-0 | .012 |
Denver | 58-70-0 | 55-71-2 | .016 |
New Orleans | 65-63-0 | 62-65-1 | .020 |
Atlanta | 57-70-1 | 54-74-0 | .027 |
NY Giants | 63-65-0 | 58-68-2 | .031 |
Pittsburgh | 74-53-1 | 70-57-1 | .031 |
Houston | 66-62-0 | 60-68-0 | .047 |
Kansas City | 70-57-1 | 63-64-1 | .055 |
Philadelphia | 59-69-0 | 52-76-0 | .055 |
Seattle | 70-58-0 | 61-67-0 | .070 |
Buffalo | 69-59-0 | 59-69-0 | .078 |
Tennessee | 72-56-0 | 62-66-0 | .078 |
LA Chargers | 68-59-1 | 57-70-1 | .086 |
Jacksonville | 67-60-1 | 55-73-0 | .098 |
Miami | 68-60-0 | 53-75-0 | .117 |
San Francisco | 69-58-1 | 53-74-1 | .125 |
Washington | 74-54-0 | 56-70-2 | .133 |
Indianapolis | 75-53-0 | 54-74-0 | .164 |
—Ian Allan