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Strength of schedule

Carolina queued up to play well early

Playing around with the schedule, I notice that the Carolina Panthers are set up for a fast start. Christian McCaffrey, it seems, will have every opportunity to put up the best statistics in the early going.

Looking at just the first five games for each team (ignoring byes) Carolina starts against teams that went a combined 28-51-1 last year. Four other teams start with five games against opponents who finished 15 or more games under .500, and they’re all teams that missed the playoffs last year – Falcons, Broncos, Jets, Jaguars.

Four teams, meanwhile, start with five games against teams that (collectively) won at least 60 percent of their games last year. Hard schedules. Colts lead the way, followed by Dolphins, Rams and Raiders. Those teams are positioned to perhaps struggle a bit more in their early games. (Behind that group are four teams with notable offenses – Bills, KC, Chargers, Seahawks.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-5)
TeamWLTPct
Carolina28511.356
Atlanta30491.381
Denver32480.400
NY Jets32480.400
Jacksonville32471.406
Dallas33461.419
NY Giants34460.425
Tennessee34460.425
Arizona35450.438
Philadelphia35450.438
Houston37430.463
Tampa Bay37430.463
New Orleans38420.475
Chicago38411.481
New England39410.488
Green Bay39401.494
Cleveland40400.500
Minnesota40391.506
Cincinnati41390.513
Washington42380.525
San Francisco42371.531
Baltimore43370.538
Pittsburgh43361.544
Detroit45350.563
Seattle45350.563
LA Chargers46340.575
Kansas City46331.581
Buffalo47330.588
Las Vegas48320.600
LA Rams50300.625
Miami50300.625
Indianapolis54260.675

For a slightly more complex look, we can measure the first eight games of each team against the last eight. (In most fantasy leagues, the 17th game isn’t used, so I’m not including those – I’m looking at the last eight that would be used in most fantasy leagues.)

On this one, it shows the Carolina, Baltimore, Green Bay and Cincinnati have the most front-loaded schedules. They tend to have their easier games first, with the meatier opponents coming later.

Indianapolis, Washington, San Francisco and Miami, meanwhile, have backloaded schedules. For those teams, they’re tending to play hard games in September-October and their softer opponents in the final two months.

SCHEDULES (1st H vs. 2nd H)
Team1st 8Last 8Diff
Carolina45-82-172-56-0-.207
Baltimore61-66-179-48-1-.141
Green Bay62-65-180-48-0-.137
Cincinnati59-69-074-54-0-.117
New England54-74-069-59-0-.117
Dallas52-75-166-62-0-.105
Minnesota62-65-174-54-0-.090
NY Jets54-73-165-62-1-.086
Las Vegas63-64-172-55-1-.070
Cleveland65-63-071-56-1-.051
Chicago68-59-174-54-0-.043
LA Rams65-63-069-59-0-.031
Detroit63-63-267-61-0-.023
Arizona63-65-063-65-0.000
Tampa Bay61-66-160-68-0.012
Denver58-70-055-71-2.016
New Orleans65-63-062-65-1.020
Atlanta57-70-154-74-0.027
NY Giants63-65-058-68-2.031
Pittsburgh74-53-170-57-1.031
Houston66-62-060-68-0.047
Kansas City70-57-163-64-1.055
Philadelphia59-69-052-76-0.055
Seattle70-58-061-67-0.070
Buffalo69-59-059-69-0.078
Tennessee72-56-062-66-0.078
LA Chargers68-59-157-70-1.086
Jacksonville67-60-155-73-0.098
Miami68-60-053-75-0.117
San Francisco69-58-153-74-1.125
Washington74-54-056-70-2.133
Indianapolis75-53-054-74-0.164

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index