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Factoid

Josh Allen

Allen makes historical accuracy jump

That was quite a turnaround they pulled around with Josh Allen last year. Two years ago, he completed only 59 percent of his passes. They moved him up to 69 percent last year, turning him into an MVP candidate kind of guy.

That looked weird to me – that big of a jump – so I figured I’d parse the numbers and see what other players have been able to improve their completion percentages by similar amounts.

On this one, I looked only at players who attempted at least 200 passes in each of the seasons.

Terry Bradshaw, since the merger, is the all-time leader. He was pretty awful as a rookie, completing only 38 percent, and moved up to 54 percent in his second year.

Only 15 have been able to improve by over 10 percent, and Bill Walsh has his fingerprints on three of them, with Virgil Carter (1971), Ken Anderson (1974) and Steve DeBerg (1979) getting dropped into his rhythm-passing offenses. Walsh got that rolling with the Bengals in the early 70s.

Three other third-year quarterbacks made bigger jumps than Allen: Jim Zorn (for the Seahawks in their third year), DeBerg and J.P. Losman (Bills). Losman was the fourth quarterback selected in 2004, behind Manning-Rivers-Roethlisberger.

The top 30 is below, and there’s one other 2020 player on the list: Aaron Rodgers (he didn’t play well in his first season under Matt LaFleur).

IMPROVING COMPLETION PERCENTAGES (since 1970)
SeasonsPlayerYrsPct1Pct2Diff
1970-71Terry Bradshaw, Pitt.1-238.1%54.4%16.4%
1993-94Jim Everett, LAR-N.O.8-949.3%64.1%14.8%
1978-79Steve DeBerg, S.F.2-345.4%60.0%14.7%
1977-78Jim Zorn, Sea.2-341.4%56.0%14.5%
2005-06J.P. Losman, Buff.2-349.6%62.5%12.9%
1978-79Joe Theismann, Was.8-947.9%59.0%11.0%
1994-95Scott Mitchell, Det.5-648.4%59.3%11.0%
2006-07Vince Young, Ten.1-251.5%62.3%10.8%
1970-71Virgil Carter, Cin.3-451.4%62.2%10.7%
2006-07Brett Favre, G.B.16-1756.0%66.5%10.6%
1973-74Ken Anderson, Cin.3-454.4%64.9%10.5%
2019-20Josh Allen, Buff.2-358.8%69.2%10.4%
1988-89Joe Montana, S.F.10-1159.9%70.2%10.3%
2007-08Trent Edwards, Buff.1-256.1%65.5%9.4%
2017-18Carson Wentz, Phil.2-360.2%69.6%9.3%
1998-99Kerry Collins, 3 tms4-548.2%57.4%9.2%
1992-93Boomer Esiason, Cin.-NYJ9-1051.8%60.9%9.1%
1995-96Drew Bledsoe, N.E.3-450.8%59.9%9.1%
1976-77Bob Avellini, Chi.2-343.5%52.6%9.0%
2003-04Patrick Ramsey, Was.2-353.1%62.1%9.0%
2002-03Jake Plummer, Ariz.-Den.6-753.6%62.6%9.0%
1999-00Donovan McNabb, Phil.1-249.1%58.0%8.9%
2001-02Matt Hasselbeck, Sea.4-554.8%63.7%8.9%
2011-12Alex Smith, S.F.7-861.3%70.2%8.8%
1983-84John Elway, Den.1-247.5%56.3%8.8%
2017-18Cam Newton, Car.7-859.1%67.9%8.8%
2019-20• Aaron Rodgers, G.B.15-1662.0%70.7%8.7%
1990-91Troy Aikman, Dall.2-356.6%65.3%8.6%
2013-14Robert Griffin, Was.2-360.1%68.7%8.6%
1979-80Steve Grogan, N.E.5-648.7%57.2%8.5%

—Ian Allan

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