I was surprised when Arizona signed A.J. Green to a $6 million contract. To me, he looks like he’s done: a 32-year-old who can’t do it anymore. But at least one stat suggests things might not be as dire for Green as I have been thinking.

When I look at Green, I am most troubled by his lack of effectiveness last year. Cincinnati had two other receivers (Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd) who were good at times, reducing the effectiveness of the argument that Green way undermined by playing for a lesser team.

He caught only 47 of 104 passes for 523 yards. That works out to 5.0 yards per pass attempt – the 2nd-lowest figure by a wide receiver with at least 100 targets in the last 10 years.

But here’s where it gets just a little interesting.

Take the 20 worst other receivers (in this metric) who were kind of like Green – the guys who over the last 10 years have had at least 100 targets and averaged under 6.4 yards per target. All guys who (like Green) really struggled. Then look at how those guys did the next year.

Seven of those 20 – 35 percent – finished with top-20 PPR numbers. (They’re tagged with two black dots). Two others at least ranked in the top 30 (one dot for them).

I’m still of the opinion that Green isn’t a good player anymore, and that you shouldn’t be selecting him this summer. But that conclusion can’t be based solely on his production issues last year.

2016Tavon Austin, LAR106585094.803
2020A.J. Green, Cin.104475235.032
2014Cecil Shorts, Jac.110535575.061
2012•• Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.156717985.124
2016Jeremy Kerley, S.F.115646675.803
2016•• Allen Robinson, Jac.151738835.856
2013Stevie Johnson, Buff.101525975.913
2014• James Jones, Oak.112736665.956
2011Greg Little, Cle.119617095.962
2019• Curtis Samuel, Car.105546275.976
2012•• Kendall Wright, Ten.104646266.024
2018Michael Crabtree, Balt.100546076.073
2017Michael Crabtree, Oak.101586186.128
2017•• Jarvis Landry, Mia.1611129876.139
2016Brandon Marshall, NYJ128597886.163
2011•• Mike Williams, T.B.124657716.223
2012Donnie Avery, Ind.124607816.303
2015•• Michael Crabtree, Oak.146859226.329
2013Cecil Shorts, Jac.123667776.323
2016•• DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.151789546.324
2017Dez Bryant, Dall.132698386.356

—Ian Allan