Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson will start in Week 1, but what about the other quarterbacks chosen in the first round? My leaning is that probably all three will be backups at the start of the season.

In each of those cases, the teams have veteran options available: Cam Newton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Andy Dalton. The pros and cons of those guys can be debated, but they’ve all got a bunch of starting experience; they’ve all started at least three playoff games.

With Chicago, there’s a little history to work with. Matt Nagy was in Kansas City when they brought Patrick Mahomes along slowly. And when Nagy had Mitchell Trubisky (a No. 2 overall pick) he left him on the bench for the first month of the 2017 season.

Trey Lance is a small-school guy without much experience, so I would be surprised if he’s ready to start ahead of Garoppolo in Week 1.

Newton, I would think, would be the veteran most likely to lose his starting job in August. He had a lot of problems with converting simple throws last year – could throw the ball accurately – so I could see Mac Jones simply taking the job away from him.

Typically, rookie quarterbacks don’t tend to play great, and even inside their first season, they don’t tend to play as well early.

In the last 10 years, there have been 32 quarterbacks chosen in the first round. They’ve gone 10-20-1 in their first starts (with one quarterback, Jordan Love, not starting his first game yet). In those 31 games, they averaged 220 passing yards, with 34 touchdowns, 33 interceptions, 78 sacks and 8 lost fumbles.

2011Cam Newton, Car.Ariz.L 21-281243742221
2011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.Car.L 10-163122113911
2011Christian Ponder, Minn.G.B.L 27-337133221922
2011Jake Locker, Tenn.N.E.L 14-3417233222911
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.Hou.L 10-301203621903
2012Brandon Weeden, Clev.Phil.L 16-171123511804
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.Chi.L 21-411234530913
2012Robert Griffin III, Wash.N.O.W 40-321192632020
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.N.E.L 21-231182715020
2014Blake Bortles, Jac.S.D.L 14-334293725412
2014Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.Atl.W 41-284193031700
2014Johnny Manziel, Clev.Cin.L 0-301410188002
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.Tenn.L 14-421163321022
2015Marcus Mariota, Tenn.T.B.W 42-141131520940
2016Carson Wentz, Phil.Clev.W 29-101223727820
2016Paxton Lynch, Den.Atl.L 16-235233522311
2016Jared Goff, LARMia.L 10-1410173113400
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.Cin.W 13-92152412500
2017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.Min.L 17-205122512811
2017Patrick Mahomes, K.C.Den.W 27-2416223528401
2018Sam Darnold, NYJDet.W 48-171162119821
2018Josh Allen, Buff.LACL 20-312183324512
2018Josh Rosen, Ariz.Sea.L 17-204152718010
2018Baker Mayfield, Clev.Oak.L 42-454214129522
2018Lamar Jackson, Balt.Cin.W 24-2110131915001
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.Det.T 27-271295430821
2019Daniel Jones, NYGT.B.W 32-313233633620
2019Dwayne Haskins, Was.Buff.L 9-249152214400
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.LACL 13-161233619301
2020Justin Herbert, LACK.C.L 20-232223331111
2020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.LARW 28-17712229310
2020• Jordan Love, G.B.????????
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.????????
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ????????
2021Trey Lance, S.F.????????
2021Justin Fields, Chi.????????
2021Mac Jones, N.E.????????

—Ian Allan