Factoid

June 08, 2021

Rookie QBs

When will first-rounders become starters?

Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson will start in Week 1, but what about the other quarterbacks chosen in the first round? My leaning is that probably all three will be backups at the start of the season.

In each of those cases, the teams have veteran options available: Cam Newton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Andy Dalton. The pros and cons of those guys can be debated, but they’ve all got a bunch of starting experience; they’ve all started at least three playoff games.

With Chicago, there’s a little history to work with. Matt Nagy was in Kansas City when they brought Patrick Mahomes along slowly. And when Nagy had Mitchell Trubisky (a No. 2 overall pick) he left him on the bench for the first month of the 2017 season.

Trey Lance is a small-school guy without much experience, so I would be surprised if he’s ready to start ahead of Garoppolo in Week 1.

Newton, I would think, would be the veteran most likely to lose his starting job in August. He had a lot of problems with converting simple throws last year – could throw the ball accurately – so I could see Mac Jones simply taking the job away from him.

Typically, rookie quarterbacks don’t tend to play great, and even inside their first season, they don’t tend to play as well early.

In the last 10 years, there have been 32 quarterbacks chosen in the first round. They’ve gone 10-20-1 in their first starts (with one quarterback, Jordan Love, not starting his first game yet). In those 31 games, they averaged 220 passing yards, with 34 touchdowns, 33 interceptions, 78 sacks and 8 lost fumbles.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, FIRST START (last 10 years)
Year	Player	Opp	Result	G	Com	Att	Yards	TD	Int
2011	Cam Newton, Car.	Ariz.	L 21-28	1	24	37	422	2	1
2011	Blaine Gabbert, Jac.	Car.	L 10-16	3	12	21	139	1	1
2011	Christian Ponder, Minn.	G.B.	L 27-33	7	13	32	219	2	2
2011	Jake Locker, Tenn.	N.E.	L 14-34	17	23	32	229	1	1
2012	Ryan Tannehill, Mia.	Hou.	L 10-30	1	20	36	219	0	3
2012	Brandon Weeden, Clev.	Phil.	L 16-17	1	12	35	118	0	4
2012	Andrew Luck, Ind.	Chi.	L 21-41	1	23	45	309	1	3
2012	Robert Griffin III, Wash.	N.O.	W 40-32	1	19	26	320	2	0
2013	EJ Manuel, Buff.	N.E.	L 21-23	1	18	27	150	2	0
2014	Blake Bortles, Jac.	S.D.	L 14-33	4	29	37	254	1	2
2014	Teddy Bridgewater, Minn.	Atl.	W 41-28	4	19	30	317	0	0
2014	Johnny Manziel, Clev.	Cin.	L 0-30	14	10	18	80	0	2
2015	Jameis Winston, T.B.	Tenn.	L 14-42	1	16	33	210	2	2
2015	Marcus Mariota, Tenn.	T.B.	W 42-14	1	13	15	209	4	0
2016	Carson Wentz, Phil.	Clev.	W 29-10	1	22	37	278	2	0
2016	Paxton Lynch, Den.	Atl.	L 16-23	5	23	35	223	1	1
2016	Jared Goff, LAR	Mia.	L 10-14	10	17	31	134	0	0
2017	Deshaun Watson, Hou.	Cin.	W 13-9	2	15	24	125	0	0
2017	Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.	Min.	L 17-20	5	12	25	128	1	1
2017	Patrick Mahomes, K.C.	Den.	W 27-24	16	22	35	284	0	1
2018	Sam Darnold, NYJ	Det.	W 48-17	1	16	21	198	2	1
2018	Josh Allen, Buff.	LAC	L 20-31	2	18	33	245	1	2
2018	Josh Rosen, Ariz.	Sea.	L 17-20	4	15	27	180	1	0
2018	Baker Mayfield, Clev.	Oak.	L 42-45	4	21	41	295	2	2
2018	Lamar Jackson, Balt.	Cin.	W 24-21	10	13	19	150	0	1
2019	Kyler Murray, Ariz.	Det.	T 27-27	1	29	54	308	2	1
2019	Daniel Jones, NYG	T.B.	W 32-31	3	23	36	336	2	0
2019	Dwayne Haskins, Was.	Buff.	L 9-24	9	15	22	144	0	0
2020	Joe Burrow, Cin.	LAC	L 13-16	1	23	36	193	0	1
2020	Justin Herbert, LAC	K.C.	L 20-23	2	22	33	311	1	1
2020	Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.	LAR	W 28-17	7	12	22	93	1	0
2020	• Jordan Love, G.B.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
2021	Trevor Lawrence, Jac.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
2021	Zach Wilson, NYJ	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
2021	Trey Lance, S.F.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
2021	Justin Fields, Chi.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
2021	Mac Jones, N.E.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?

—Ian Allan

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