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Bad Penny

Seahawks' 1st-round misstep sidelined again

So Rashaad Penny is sidelined at Seattle OTAs following a knee surgery. Of course it was minor, and of course he'll be ready for training camp, according to Pete Carroll, who never met a piece of bad news he can't soft-pedal or put a happy face on. A week from now he'll be ahead of schedule in his recovery and a week after that he'll be poised for an MVP season.

Today, though, he's sidelined, again. Entering his fourth season since Seattle drafted him with a first-round pick, even Carroll can't sugarcoat the reality that he's just been a really lousy choice. Chris Carson hadn't broken out at the time Penny was selected, but he was on the roster.

To Seattle's credit, they've been a nice spot for a lead running back, which perhaps explains why some continue to hold out hope for Penny. Seven times in the last 10 years they've had a top-20 running back. They've had three other top-40 backs in that time frame, so borderline fantasy starters (depending on league size and starting requirements).

Seattle's best running backs from the past decade are below, with 2020 players in bold.

SEATTLE RUNNING BACKS, 2011-2020
YearPlayerRunNoRecTDPPRRk
2014Marshawn Lynch13063736717306.34
2013Marshawn Lynch12573631614277.35
2012Marshawn Lynch15902319612273.65
2011Marshawn Lynch12042821213247.66
2019Chris Carson1230372669240.612
2018Chris Carson1151201639205.415
2020Chris Carson681372879187.820
2018Mike Davis514342145136.836
2015Thomas Rawls8309765129.637
2017J.D. McKissic18734266397.349
2014Robert Turbin31016186277.657
2012Robert Turbin35419181072.557
2019Rashaad Penny370883477.358
2020Carlos Hyde3561693484.959
2015Marshawn Lynch4171380382.761
2016Thomas Rawls3491396375.562
2015Fred Jackson10032257279.764
2018Rashaad Penny419975270.468
2016C.J. Prosise17217208161.068
2011Justin Forsett14523128156.372
2020DeeJay Dallas10817111356.973
2017Mike Davis24015131052.178
2013Robert Turbin264860040.479
2012Michael Robinson4913126242.579
2011Leon Washington2481048145.680
2016Alex Collins1251184137.983
2017Chris Carson208759139.786
2017Thomas Rawls157994034.188
2020Travis Homer88990132.889
2019C.J. Prosise721076130.892
2017Eddie Lacy179647028.694
2019Travis Homer1141156028.095

Looking at 2021 (which matters most at this point), we know that Carson will start, but there's an injury history; he missed four games a year ago. Penny, if he gets healthy, would seem to be next in line, but looks unreliable -- just as likely to be a wasted fantasy pick. Carlos Hyde is in Jacksonville, while Travis Homer is a lightly used 3rd-down back (about half as many receptions, 20, as carries, 43, in his first two seasons).

So probably either Alex Collins or DeeJay Dallas as the next-best option to be the No. 2 back. Collins was a factor in a couple of games late last season, and once had a nice season as lead back (back in 2017, for Baltimore). But realistically he's a roster longshot. A better bet is probably Dallas, the team's fourth-round pick a year ago. Dallas averaged just 3.2 yards per attempt as a rookie, but it's a pretty small sample set (just 34 attempts). He was an effective receiver, catching 17 of the 20 passes thrown his way.

When I heard the news on Penny, I added Dallas in my dynasty league. I'd been considering picking him up for a while, and that just made it easier. Decent chance he opens the season as the No. 2, and winds up starting some games in an offense that's produced a healthy amount of quality running backs the past few years. With Penny, hey, maybe. For his career, he's averaged 5.1 yards per carry, so it's not as if he can't play.

But he can't stay healthy. If he breaks out in 2021, it won't be on one of my teams.

--Andy Richardson

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