I see Joe Burrow was saying today that he expects to be 100 percent when camp opens. After a promising rookie season, and with another talented receiver being dropped into that offense, Burrow looks like a candidate for a breakout kind of year. But history shows that it’s not easy following up on a good first season.
Consider the following chart, which shows the 15 quarterbacks who ranked in the top 20 in passing yards in their first games. I’m talking per-start stats here, among quarterbacks who started at least half of the season.
But of those 15, none of them came back and ranked even higher in their second season.
This includes Burrow and Justin Herbert, who have yet to play their second year. It also includes four other quarterbacks who didn’t start at least eight games in their second seasons.
Three of these quarterbacks averaged more passing yards per game. Brandon Weeden averaged 79 more yards but didn’t last as a starter for the Browns. Byron Leftwich and Jameis Winston both averaged 3 more yards per game, but with production around the league rising, they didn’t rank higher. (Winston ranked 16th in both of his seasons, while Leftwich dropped from 16th to 21st.)
In the case of the two most recent candidates, it will be hard for Herbert and Burrow to rank higher simply because of how well they played last year. Herbert averaged 289 passing yards in his 14 starts; tough to match that total. And Burrow also passed a ton, averaging 269.
With Burrow, there’s at least the potential he gets some bump from JaMarr Chase. I’m not as optimistic as most on Chase. I’m more of a wait-and-see guy (for now, I’m not confident he’ll even be one of their top 2 receivers – Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins are legit players). But Chase at worst should be an upgrade over A.J. Green.
In my opinion, Burrow looks like a guy who should be selected as a second quarterback in typical 12-team leagues. I don’t think he’s a starter, but he looks like one of the better options as a second guy.
| ROOKIES RANKING IN THE TOP 20 (passing yards) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pass | Rk | Next | Rk |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 289 | 4 | ? | ? |
| 2018 | Nick Mullens, S.F. | 285 | 7 | -- | -- |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 273 | 7 | 239 | 19 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 271 | 12 | 239 | 22 |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 269 | 7 | ? | ? |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 253 | 12 | 242 | 14 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 253 | 16 | 256 | 16 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 251 | 18 | 210 | 27 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 231 | 19 | 202 | 30 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 227 | 15 | 178 | -- |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 227 | 10 | 129 | -- |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 226 | 19 | 304 | -- |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 220 | 19 | 216 | 23 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 215 | 16 | 208 | 22 |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 207 | 16 | 210 | 21 |
—Ian Allan