When a team is favored by 3 points, what does that mean? How often do those teams actually win? And how often does a team favored by 10 actually deliver what most are expecting? It’s an issue I spent some time looking at.
On this topic, I set aside the 2020 season (with the pandemic creating unusual issues); I instead looked at the 2,560 games played in the 10 previous seasons. Looking at the big picture, you get an idea of how things tend to play out.
There have been 118 teams favored by 6 points, for example, and they’ve won 70 percent of the time. There have been 120 teams favored by 10 points, and they’ve won 85 percent of the time.
The tabulated numbers appear below, and I’ve added an additional column (“smoothed”) showing not how they’ve performed but how I expect them to perform going forward. Teams favored by 1 point, for example, actually have a losing record (71-79) over the last 10 years, but I would expect them to win slightly more than they lose, so I’ve tweaked that number.
| POINT SPREADS (last 10 years) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pts | G | Wins | Pct | Smoothed |
| 0 | 38 | 19 | .500 | .500 |
| -1 | 150 | 71 | .473 | .530 |
| -1.5 | 93 | 52 | .559 | .560 |
| -2 | 77 | 41.5 | .539 | .565 |
| -2.5 | 202 | 108 | .535 | .570 |
| -3 | 417 | 240.5 | .577 | .582 |
| -3.5 | 225 | 134.5 | .598 | .595 |
| -4 | 116 | 68 | .586 | .605 |
| -4.5 | 92 | 60 | .652 | .650 |
| -5 | 75 | 52 | .693 | .690 |
| -5.5 | 100 | 74.5 | .745 | .720 |
| -6 | 118 | 83 | .703 | .740 |
| -6.5 | 129 | 97 | .752 | .750 |
| -7 | 185 | 140.5 | .759 | .760 |
| -7.5 | 122 | 97 | .795 | .780 |
| -8 | 35 | 22 | .629 | .812 |
| -8.5 | 24 | 20 | .833 | .833 |
| -9 | 41 | 26 | .634 | .850 |
| -9.5 | 54 | 47 | .870 | .860 |
| -10 | 120 | 102 | .850 | .870 |
| -10.5 | 89 | 69 | .775 | .900 |
| -11 | 23 | 22 | .957 | .910 |
| -11.5 | 16 | 14 | .875 | .915 |
| -12 | 9 | 8 | .889 | .920 |
| -12.5 | 14 | 12 | .857 | .925 |
| -13 | 17 | 14.5 | .853 | .930 |
| -13.5 | 30 | 26 | .867 | .935 |
| -14 | 23 | 20 | .870 | .940 |
| -14.5 | 17 | 16 | .941 | .945 |
| -15 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .950 |
| -15.5 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .960 |
| -16.5 | 8 | 7 | .875 | .970 |
| -17 | 8 | 7 | .875 | .980 |
| -20.5 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .990 |
We can take that data and plug it into the upcoming season, using the published odds for each game. Reader Benjamin Stepherd sent over the lines for all 272 regular-season games, as set by the Westgate Superbook. That gives us a good estimate of the consensus of people who are confident enough that they’re right to put down money in support of that opinion.
If, for example, a team had a 50 percent chance of winning each of its first four games, you would figure it would be about 2-2 after four games – a half, plus a half, plus a half, plus a half. If a team had a 75 percent chance of winning each of its first four games, you would figure it would be 3-1 after four games -- .75 plus .75 plus .75 plus .75.
If we follow that process for all teams and all games, Kansas City and Tampa Bay look like the favorites to win up in the Super Bowl. Buffalo, Baltimore and Cleveland (according to how money is flowing) look like the next-best options in the AFC. On the NFC side, the three next teams after Tampa Bay are all located in the NFC West.
| EXPECTED WINS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Win | Loss | Pct |
| Kansas City | 12.8 | 4.2 | .752 |
| Tampa Bay | 12.1 | 4.9 | .714 |
| Buffalo | 11.7 | 5.3 | .690 |
| Baltimore | 11.0 | 6.0 | .646 |
| San Francisco | 10.8 | 6.2 | .634 |
| Cleveland | 10.7 | 6.3 | .629 |
| LA Rams | 10.5 | 6.5 | .618 |
| Indianapolis | 10.1 | 6.9 | .594 |
| Seattle | 9.5 | 7.5 | .557 |
| Dallas | 9.3 | 7.7 | .545 |
| New Orleans | 9.2 | 7.8 | .542 |
| Tennessee | 9.0 | 8.0 | .528 |
| Arizona | 8.9 | 8.1 | .526 |
| LA Chargers | 8.7 | 8.3 | .511 |
| Green Bay | 8.6 | 8.4 | .508 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.6 | 8.4 | .506 |
| Miami | 8.6 | 8.4 | .504 |
| Minnesota | 8.6 | 8.4 | .503 |
| New England | 8.5 | 8.5 | .503 |
| Denver | 8.5 | 8.5 | .502 |
| Atlanta | 7.4 | 9.6 | .436 |
| Washington | 7.1 | 9.9 | .418 |
| Las Vegas | 7.1 | 9.9 | .416 |
| NY Giants | 7.0 | 10.0 | .410 |
| Carolina | 7.0 | 10.0 | .409 |
| Chicago | 6.9 | 10.1 | .403 |
| Philadelphia | 6.7 | 10.3 | .397 |
| Jacksonville | 6.5 | 10.5 | .382 |
| NY Jets | 6.2 | 10.8 | .365 |
| Cincinnati | 6.2 | 10.8 | .362 |
| Detroit | 4.5 | 12.5 | .266 |
| Houston | 3.8 | 13.2 | .224 |
Interestingly, we can use the week-by-week data to see where the Westgate numbers disagree with their own season-long totals. That is, if you want to make a bet on Buffalo’s win total, it’s set at 11.0 games. But the game-by-game point spreads indicate the Bills should win 11.7 games.
The Bills, Bucs and Cardinals are the three teams that appear to be underpriced. The week-by-week numbers suggest that each should be about a half game better than the season total numbers.
The largest disagreement is with Washington. Their season-total number is set at 8.0 wins, but if you use the game-by-game data, it suggests that number should be at 7.1. Four other teams have season total numbers that appear to be over a half game too high: Chargers, Bears, Panthers, Giants.
On this chart, by the way, the Westgate-supplied totals run 4.5 games high – they add up to 276.5 total games. The numbers created by the betting lines assign exactly one win for each of the 272 games, so they add up precisely – no inflation on them.
| SEASON TOTALS v. WEEK BY WEEK | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Odds | Games | Diff |
| Buffalo | 11.0 | 11.7 | .73 |
| Tampa Bay | 11.5 | 12.1 | .64 |
| Arizona | 8.5 | 8.9 | .44 |
| Kansas City | 12.5 | 12.8 | .29 |
| San Francisco | 10.5 | 10.8 | .28 |
| Philadelphia | 6.5 | 6.7 | .24 |
| New England | 9.0 | 9.2 | .22 |
| Cleveland | 10.5 | 10.7 | .19 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.5 | 8.6 | .11 |
| Indianapolis | 10.0 | 10.1 | .10 |
| Detroit | 4.5 | 4.5 | .02 |
| LA Rams | 10.5 | 10.5 | .00 |
| Jacksonville | 6.5 | 6.5 | -.01 |
| Baltimore | 11.0 | 11.0 | -.02 |
| Tennessee | 9.0 | 9.0 | -.03 |
| Seattle | 9.5 | 9.5 | -.04 |
| Atlanta | 7.5 | 7.4 | -.10 |
| Houston | 4.0 | 3.8 | -.19 |
| Dallas | 9.5 | 9.3 | -.23 |
| NY Jets | 6.5 | 6.2 | -.29 |
| New Orleans | 9.5 | 9.2 | -.30 |
| Cincinnati | 6.5 | 6.2 | -.35 |
| Green Bay | 9.0 | 8.6 | -.36 |
| Miami | 9.0 | 8.6 | -.43 |
| Las Vegas | 7.5 | 7.1 | -.44 |
| Minnesota | 9.0 | 8.6 | -.44 |
| Denver | 9.0 | 8.5 | -.47 |
| NY Giants | 7.5 | 7.0 | -.52 |
| Carolina | 7.5 | 7.0 | -.54 |
| Chicago | 7.5 | 6.9 | -.65 |
| LA Chargers | 9.5 | 8.7 | -.82 |
| Washington | 8.0 | 7.1 | -.90 |
The supporting documentation for these charts appears below. For each of the 272 games, you’re seeing the point spread as currently published by the Westgate Superbook. The win percentage number was crafted by using the published final lines from regular season games since 2010 (as printed at Pro-Football-Reference.com).
| SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION (272 regular-season games) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk | Team | Opponent | Pts | Win |
| 1 | Arizona | at Tennessee | +3.0 | 42% |
| 2 | Arizona | Minnesota | -3.0 | 58% |
| 3 | Arizona | at Jacksonville | -2.5 | 57% |
| 4 | Arizona | at LA Rams | +4.5 | 35% |
| 5 | Arizona | San Francisco | PK | 50% |
| 6 | Arizona | at Cleveland | +4.5 | 35% |
| 7 | Arizona | Houston | -10.5 | 90% |
| 8 | Arizona | Green Bay | -3.0 | 58% |
| 9 | Arizona | at San Francisco | +5.5 | 28% |
| 10 | Arizona | Carolina | -6.0 | 74% |
| 11 | Arizona | at Seattle | +3.5 | 41% |
| 13 | Arizona | at Chicago | -1.5 | 56% |
| 14 | Arizona | LA Rams | +2.5 | 43% |
| 15 | Arizona | at Detroit | -6.5 | 75% |
| 16 | Arizona | Indianapolis | -1.0 | 53% |
| 17 | Arizona | at Dallas | +2.5 | 43% |
| 18 | Arizona | Seattle | -2.0 | 57% |
| 1 | Atlanta | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 60% |
| 2 | Atlanta | at Tampa Bay | +9.5 | 14% |
| 3 | Atlanta | at NY Giants | +2.5 | 43% |
| 4 | Atlanta | Washington | -2.5 | 57% |
| 5 | Atlanta | NY Jets | -3.0 | 58% |
| 7 | Atlanta | at Miami | +3.5 | 41% |
| 8 | Atlanta | Carolina | -3.5 | 60% |
| 9 | Atlanta | at New Orleans | +6.0 | 26% |
| 10 | Atlanta | at Dallas | +5.5 | 28% |
| 11 | Atlanta | New England | -1.5 | 56% |
| 12 | Atlanta | at Jacksonville | PK | 50% |
| 13 | Atlanta | Tampa Bay | +4.5 | 35% |
| 14 | Atlanta | at Carolina | +1.5 | 44% |
| 15 | Atlanta | at San Francisco | +7.5 | 22% |
| 16 | Atlanta | Detroit | -7.5 | 78% |
| 17 | Atlanta | at Buffalo | +8.5 | 17% |
| 18 | Atlanta | New Orleans | -1.0 | 53% |
| 1 | Baltimore | at Las Vegas | -4.0 | 61% |
| 2 | Baltimore | Kansas City | PK | 50% |
| 3 | Baltimore | at Detroit | -7.5 | 78% |
| 4 | Baltimore | at Denver | -3.5 | 60% |
| 5 | Baltimore | Indianapolis | -4.0 | 61% |
| 6 | Baltimore | LA Chargers | -5.5 | 72% |
| 7 | Baltimore | Cincinnati | -10.0 | 87% |
| 9 | Baltimore | Minnesota | -7.0 | 76% |
| 10 | Baltimore | at Miami | -3.0 | 58% |
| 11 | Baltimore | at Chicago | -3.5 | 60% |
| 12 | Baltimore | Cleveland | -3.5 | 60% |
| 13 | Baltimore | at Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 57% |
| 14 | Baltimore | at Cleveland | +2.5 | 43% |
| 15 | Baltimore | Green Bay | -5.5 | 72% |
| 16 | Baltimore | at Cincinnati | -6.5 | 75% |
| 17 | Baltimore | LA Rams | -3.0 | 58% |
| 18 | Baltimore | Pittsburgh | -5.5 | 72% |
| 1 | Buffalo | Pittsburgh | -6.0 | 74% |
| 2 | Buffalo | at Miami | -3.0 | 58% |
| 3 | Buffalo | Washington | -7.5 | 78% |
| 4 | Buffalo | Houston | -14.0 | 94% |
| 5 | Buffalo | at Kansas City | +4.5 | 35% |
| 6 | Buffalo | at Tennessee | -2.5 | 57% |
| 8 | Buffalo | Miami | -7.0 | 76% |
| 9 | Buffalo | at Jacksonville | -6.5 | 75% |
| 10 | Buffalo | at NY Jets | -7.0 | 76% |
| 11 | Buffalo | Indianapolis | -6.0 | 74% |
| 12 | Buffalo | at New Orleans | -1.5 | 56% |
| 13 | Buffalo | New England | -7.0 | 76% |
| 14 | Buffalo | at Tampa Bay | +4.0 | 40% |
| 15 | Buffalo | Carolina | -9.5 | 86% |
| 16 | Buffalo | at New England | -3.5 | 60% |
| 17 | Buffalo | Atlanta | -8.5 | 83% |
| 18 | Buffalo | NY Jets | -6.5 | 75% |
| 1 | Carolina | NY Jets | -4.5 | 65% |
| 2 | Carolina | New Orleans | +2.5 | 43% |
| 3 | Carolina | at Houston | -4.0 | 61% |
| 4 | Carolina | at Dallas | +5.5 | 28% |
| 5 | Carolina | Philadelphia | -3.0 | 58% |
| 6 | Carolina | Minnesota | PK | 50% |
| 7 | Carolina | at NY Giants | +3.0 | 42% |
| 8 | Carolina | at Atlanta | +3.5 | 41% |
| 9 | Carolina | New England | PK | 50% |
| 10 | Carolina | at Arizona | +6.0 | 26% |
| 11 | Carolina | Washington | -1.0 | 53% |
| 12 | Carolina | at Miami | +4.5 | 35% |
| 14 | Carolina | Atlanta | -1.5 | 56% |
| 15 | Carolina | at Buffalo | +9.5 | 14% |
| 16 | Carolina | Tampa Bay | +6.5 | 25% |
| 17 | Carolina | at New Orleans | +6.5 | 25% |
| 18 | Carolina | at Tampa Bay | +6.5 | 25% |
| 1 | Chicago | at LA Rams | +7.0 | 24% |
| 2 | Chicago | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 60% |
| 3 | Chicago | at Cleveland | +7.0 | 24% |
| 4 | Chicago | Detroit | -5.5 | 72% |
| 5 | Chicago | at Las Vegas | +3.5 | 41% |
| 6 | Chicago | Green Bay | +2.5 | 43% |
| 7 | Chicago | at Tampa Bay | +10.0 | 13% |
| 8 | Chicago | San Francisco | +4.0 | 40% |
| 9 | Chicago | at Pittsburgh | +5.5 | 28% |
| 11 | Chicago | Baltimore | +3.5 | 41% |
| 12 | Chicago | at Detroit | -3.0 | 58% |
| 13 | Chicago | Arizona | +1.5 | 44% |
| 14 | Chicago | at Green Bay | +5.5 | 28% |
| 15 | Chicago | Minnesota | +1.0 | 47% |
| 16 | Chicago | at Seattle | +5.5 | 28% |
| 17 | Chicago | NY Giants | -2.0 | 57% |
| 18 | Chicago | at Minnesota | +4.0 | 40% |
| 1 | Cincinnati | Minnesota | +3.0 | 42% |
| 2 | Cincinnati | at Chicago | +3.5 | 41% |
| 3 | Cincinnati | at Pittsburgh | +6.0 | 26% |
| 4 | Cincinnati | Jacksonville | -2.5 | 57% |
| 5 | Cincinnati | Green Bay | +3.0 | 42% |
| 6 | Cincinnati | at Detroit | -1.0 | 53% |
| 7 | Cincinnati | at Baltimore | +10.0 | 13% |
| 8 | Cincinnati | at NY Jets | +1.0 | 47% |
| 9 | Cincinnati | Cleveland | +4.5 | 35% |
| 11 | Cincinnati | at Las Vegas | +4.5 | 35% |
| 12 | Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | +3.0 | 42% |
| 13 | Cincinnati | LA Chargers | +2.5 | 43% |
| 14 | Cincinnati | San Francisco | +3.5 | 41% |
| 15 | Cincinnati | at Denver | +5.5 | 28% |
| 16 | Cincinnati | Baltimore | +6.5 | 25% |
| 17 | Cincinnati | Kansas City | +7.5 | 22% |
| 18 | Cincinnati | at Cleveland | +6.5 | 25% |
| 1 | Cleveland | at Kansas City | +6.5 | 25% |
| 2 | Cleveland | Houston | -13.5 | 94% |
| 3 | Cleveland | Chicago | -7.0 | 76% |
| 4 | Cleveland | at Minnesota | -1.5 | 56% |
| 5 | Cleveland | at LA Chargers | -1.5 | 56% |
| 6 | Cleveland | Arizona | -4.5 | 65% |
| 7 | Cleveland | Denver | -7.0 | 76% |
| 8 | Cleveland | Pittsburgh | -4.5 | 65% |
| 9 | Cleveland | at Cincinnati | -4.5 | 65% |
| 10 | Cleveland | at New England | -2.0 | 57% |
| 11 | Cleveland | Detroit | -10.0 | 87% |
| 12 | Cleveland | at Baltimore | +3.5 | 41% |
| 14 | Cleveland | Baltimore | -2.5 | 57% |
| 15 | Cleveland | Las Vegas | -6.5 | 75% |
| 16 | Cleveland | at Green Bay | PK | 50% |
| 17 | Cleveland | at Pittsburgh | PK | 50% |
| 18 | Cleveland | Cincinnati | -6.5 | 75% |
| 1 | Dallas | at Tampa Bay | +6.5 | 25% |
| 2 | Dallas | at LA Chargers | +1.5 | 44% |
| 3 | Dallas | Philadelphia | -6.5 | 75% |
| 4 | Dallas | Carolina | -5.5 | 72% |
| 5 | Dallas | NY Giants | -5.5 | 72% |
| 6 | Dallas | at New England | +1.5 | 44% |
| 8 | Dallas | at Minnesota | +2.0 | 44% |
| 9 | Dallas | Denver | -4.5 | 65% |
| 10 | Dallas | Atlanta | -5.5 | 72% |
| 11 | Dallas | at Kansas City | +7.5 | 22% |
| 12 | Dallas | Las Vegas | -5.5 | 72% |
| 13 | Dallas | at New Orleans | +3.5 | 41% |
| 14 | Dallas | at Washington | +1.5 | 44% |
| 15 | Dallas | at NY Giants | -1.0 | 53% |
| 16 | Dallas | Washington | -5.0 | 69% |
| 17 | Dallas | Arizona | -2.5 | 57% |
| 18 | Dallas | at Philadelphia | -2.5 | 57% |
| 1 | Denver | at NY Giants | -1.0 | 53% |
| 2 | Denver | at Jacksonville | -1.5 | 56% |
| 3 | Denver | NY Jets | -5.5 | 72% |
| 4 | Denver | Baltimore | +3.5 | 41% |
| 5 | Denver | at Pittsburgh | +4.5 | 35% |
| 6 | Denver | Las Vegas | -3.5 | 60% |
| 7 | Denver | at Cleveland | +7.0 | 24% |
| 8 | Denver | Washington | -3.0 | 58% |
| 9 | Denver | at Dallas | +4.5 | 35% |
| 10 | Denver | Philadelphia | -5.5 | 72% |
| 12 | Denver | LA Chargers | -2.5 | 57% |
| 13 | Denver | at Kansas City | +9.5 | 14% |
| 14 | Denver | Detroit | -7.5 | 78% |
| 15 | Denver | Cincinnati | -5.5 | 72% |
| 16 | Denver | at Las Vegas | +2.5 | 43% |
| 17 | Denver | at LA Chargers | +3.0 | 42% |
| 18 | Denver | Kansas City | +3.0 | 42% |
| 1 | Detroit | San Francisco | +7.5 | 22% |
| 2 | Detroit | at Green Bay | +7.5 | 22% |
| 3 | Detroit | Baltimore | +7.5 | 22% |
| 4 | Detroit | at Chicago | +5.5 | 28% |
| 5 | Detroit | at Minnesota | +8.5 | 17% |
| 6 | Detroit | Cincinnati | +1.0 | 47% |
| 7 | Detroit | at LA Rams | +12.0 | 8% |
| 8 | Detroit | Philadelphia | +1.0 | 47% |
| 10 | Detroit | at Pittsburgh | +7.5 | 22% |
| 11 | Detroit | at Cleveland | +10.0 | 13% |
| 12 | Detroit | Chicago | +3.0 | 42% |
| 13 | Detroit | Minnesota | +4.0 | 40% |
| 14 | Detroit | at Denver | +7.5 | 22% |
| 15 | Detroit | Arizona | +6.5 | 25% |
| 16 | Detroit | at Atlanta | +7.5 | 22% |
| 17 | Detroit | at Seattle | +9.5 | 14% |
| 18 | Detroit | Green Bay | +3.5 | 41% |
| 1 | Green Bay | at New Orleans | +3.0 | 42% |
| 2 | Green Bay | Detroit | -7.5 | 78% |
| 3 | Green Bay | at San Francisco | +5.0 | 31% |
| 4 | Green Bay | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 57% |
| 5 | Green Bay | at Cincinnati | -3.0 | 58% |
| 6 | Green Bay | at Chicago | -2.5 | 57% |
| 7 | Green Bay | Washington | -4.0 | 61% |
| 8 | Green Bay | at Arizona | +3.0 | 42% |
| 9 | Green Bay | at Kansas City | +7.0 | 24% |
| 10 | Green Bay | Seattle | -3.0 | 58% |
| 11 | Green Bay | at Minnesota | +3.0 | 42% |
| 12 | Green Bay | LA Rams | +1.0 | 47% |
| 14 | Green Bay | Chicago | -5.5 | 72% |
| 15 | Green Bay | at Baltimore | +5.5 | 28% |
| 16 | Green Bay | Cleveland | PK | 50% |
| 17 | Green Bay | Minnesota | -3.0 | 58% |
| 18 | Green Bay | at Detroit | -3.5 | 60% |
| 1 | Houston | Jacksonville | +3.0 | 42% |
| 2 | Houston | at Cleveland | +13.5 | 6% |
| 3 | Houston | Carolina | +4.0 | 40% |
| 4 | Houston | at Buffalo | +14.0 | 6% |
| 5 | Houston | New England | +6.0 | 26% |
| 6 | Houston | at Indianapolis | +11.5 | 8% |
| 7 | Houston | at Arizona | +10.5 | 10% |
| 8 | Houston | LA Rams | +8.5 | 17% |
| 9 | Houston | at Miami | +7.5 | 22% |
| 11 | Houston | at Tennessee | +9.5 | 14% |
| 12 | Houston | NY Jets | +1.0 | 47% |
| 13 | Houston | Indianapolis | +7.0 | 24% |
| 14 | Houston | Seattle | +7.0 | 24% |
| 15 | Houston | at Jacksonville | +4.5 | 35% |
| 16 | Houston | LA Chargers | +5.5 | 28% |
| 17 | Houston | at San Francisco | +13.5 | 6% |
| 18 | Houston | Tennessee | +6.0 | 26% |
| 1 | Indianapolis | Seattle | -3.0 | 58% |
| 2 | Indianapolis | LA Rams | -1.5 | 56% |
| 3 | Indianapolis | at Tennessee | PK | 50% |
| 4 | Indianapolis | at Miami | -1.5 | 56% |
| 5 | Indianapolis | at Baltimore | +4.0 | 40% |
| 6 | Indianapolis | Houston | -11.5 | 92% |
| 7 | Indianapolis | at San Francisco | +4.5 | 35% |
| 8 | Indianapolis | Tennessee | -3.5 | 60% |
| 9 | Indianapolis | NY Jets | -8.5 | 83% |
| 10 | Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -7.5 | 78% |
| 11 | Indianapolis | at Buffalo | +6.0 | 26% |
| 12 | Indianapolis | Tampa Bay | PK | 50% |
| 13 | Indianapolis | at Houston | -7.0 | 76% |
| 15 | Indianapolis | New England | -5.5 | 72% |
| 16 | Indianapolis | at Arizona | +1.0 | 47% |
| 17 | Indianapolis | Las Vegas | -6.0 | 74% |
| 18 | Indianapolis | at Jacksonville | -3.0 | 58% |
| 1 | Jacksonville | at Houston | -3.0 | 58% |
| 2 | Jacksonville | Denver | +1.5 | 44% |
| 3 | Jacksonville | Arizona | +2.5 | 43% |
| 4 | Jacksonville | at Cincinnati | +2.5 | 43% |
| 5 | Jacksonville | Tennessee | +3.0 | 42% |
| 6 | Jacksonville | Miami | +2.5 | 43% |
| 8 | Jacksonville | at Seattle | +7.5 | 22% |
| 9 | Jacksonville | Buffalo | +6.5 | 25% |
| 10 | Jacksonville | at Indianapolis | +7.5 | 22% |
| 11 | Jacksonville | San Francisco | +4.0 | 40% |
| 12 | Jacksonville | Atlanta | PK | 50% |
| 13 | Jacksonville | at LA Rams | +9.5 | 14% |
| 14 | Jacksonville | at Tennessee | +6.5 | 25% |
| 15 | Jacksonville | Houston | -4.5 | 65% |
| 16 | Jacksonville | at NY Jets | +1.5 | 44% |
| 17 | Jacksonville | at New England | +5.5 | 28% |
| 18 | Jacksonville | Indianapolis | +3.0 | 42% |
| 1 | Kansas City | Cleveland | -6.5 | 75% |
| 2 | Kansas City | at Baltimore | PK | 50% |
| 3 | Kansas City | LA Chargers | -7.5 | 78% |
| 4 | Kansas City | at Philadelphia | -8.0 | 81% |
| 5 | Kansas City | Buffalo | -4.5 | 65% |
| 6 | Kansas City | at Washington | -6.5 | 75% |
| 7 | Kansas City | at Tennessee | -4.5 | 65% |
| 8 | Kansas City | NY Giants | -10.0 | 87% |
| 9 | Kansas City | Green Bay | -7.0 | 76% |
| 10 | Kansas City | at Las Vegas | -7.5 | 78% |
| 11 | Kansas City | Dallas | -7.5 | 78% |
| 13 | Kansas City | Denver | -9.5 | 86% |
| 14 | Kansas City | Las Vegas | -10.5 | 90% |
| 15 | Kansas City | at LA Chargers | -6.5 | 75% |
| 16 | Kansas City | Pittsburgh | -8.5 | 83% |
| 17 | Kansas City | at Cincinnati | -7.5 | 78% |
| 18 | Kansas City | at Denver | -3.0 | 58% |
| 1 | LA Chargers | at Washington | -1.5 | 56% |
| 2 | LA Chargers | Dallas | -1.5 | 56% |
| 3 | LA Chargers | at Kansas City | +7.5 | 22% |
| 4 | LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -4.0 | 61% |
| 5 | LA Chargers | Cleveland | +1.5 | 44% |
| 6 | LA Chargers | at Baltimore | +5.5 | 28% |
| 8 | LA Chargers | New England | -2.5 | 57% |
| 9 | LA Chargers | at Philadelphia | -2.0 | 57% |
| 10 | LA Chargers | Minnesota | -3.0 | 58% |
| 11 | LA Chargers | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 57% |
| 12 | LA Chargers | at Denver | +2.5 | 43% |
| 13 | LA Chargers | at Cincinnati | -2.5 | 57% |
| 14 | LA Chargers | NY Giants | -6.0 | 74% |
| 15 | LA Chargers | Kansas City | +6.5 | 25% |
| 16 | LA Chargers | at Houston | -5.5 | 72% |
| 17 | LA Chargers | Denver | -3.0 | 58% |
| 18 | LA Chargers | at Las Vegas | +1.5 | 44% |
| 1 | LA Rams | Chicago | -7.0 | 76% |
| 2 | LA Rams | at Indianapolis | +1.5 | 44% |
| 3 | LA Rams | Tampa Bay | -1.0 | 53% |
| 4 | LA Rams | Arizona | -4.5 | 65% |
| 5 | LA Rams | at Seattle | PK | 50% |
| 6 | LA Rams | at NY Giants | -3.5 | 60% |
| 7 | LA Rams | Detroit | -12.0 | 92% |
| 8 | LA Rams | at Houston | -8.5 | 83% |
| 9 | LA Rams | Tennessee | -5.5 | 72% |
| 10 | LA Rams | at San Francisco | +3.0 | 42% |
| 12 | LA Rams | at Green Bay | -1.0 | 53% |
| 13 | LA Rams | Jacksonville | -9.5 | 86% |
| 14 | LA Rams | at Arizona | -2.5 | 57% |
| 15 | LA Rams | Seattle | -4.0 | 61% |
| 16 | LA Rams | at Minnesota | -2.5 | 57% |
| 17 | LA Rams | at Baltimore | +3.0 | 42% |
| 18 | LA Rams | San Francisco | -3.0 | 58% |
| 1 | Las Vegas | Baltimore | +4.0 | 40% |
| 2 | Las Vegas | at Pittsburgh | +5.5 | 28% |
| 3 | Las Vegas | Miami | PK | 50% |
| 4 | Las Vegas | at LA Chargers | +4.0 | 40% |
| 5 | Las Vegas | Chicago | -3.5 | 60% |
| 6 | Las Vegas | at Denver | +3.5 | 41% |
| 7 | Las Vegas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 60% |
| 9 | Las Vegas | at NY Giants | +1.5 | 44% |
| 10 | Las Vegas | Kansas City | +7.5 | 22% |
| 11 | Las Vegas | Cincinnati | -4.5 | 65% |
| 12 | Las Vegas | at Dallas | +5.5 | 28% |
| 13 | Las Vegas | Washington | -2.5 | 57% |
| 14 | Las Vegas | at Kansas City | +10.5 | 10% |
| 15 | Las Vegas | at Cleveland | +6.5 | 25% |
| 16 | Las Vegas | Denver | -2.5 | 57% |
| 17 | Las Vegas | at Indianapolis | +6.0 | 26% |
| 18 | Las Vegas | LA Chargers | -1.5 | 56% |
| 1 | Miami | at New England | +2.5 | 43% |
| 2 | Miami | Buffalo | +3.0 | 42% |
| 3 | Miami | at Las Vegas | PK | 50% |
| 4 | Miami | Indianapolis | +1.5 | 44% |
| 5 | Miami | at Tampa Bay | +7.5 | 22% |
| 6 | Miami | at Jacksonville | -2.5 | 57% |
| 7 | Miami | Atlanta | -3.5 | 60% |
| 8 | Miami | at Buffalo | +7.0 | 24% |
| 9 | Miami | Houston | -7.5 | 78% |
| 10 | Miami | Baltimore | +3.0 | 42% |
| 11 | Miami | at NY Jets | -3.0 | 58% |
| 12 | Miami | Carolina | -4.5 | 65% |
| 13 | Miami | NY Giants | -3.5 | 60% |
| 15 | Miami | NY Jets | -6.5 | 75% |
| 16 | Miami | at New Orleans | +3.5 | 41% |
| 17 | Miami | at Tennessee | +3.5 | 41% |
| 18 | Miami | New England | -2.5 | 57% |
| 1 | Minnesota | at Cincinnati | -3.0 | 58% |
| 2 | Minnesota | at Arizona | +3.0 | 42% |
| 3 | Minnesota | Seattle | -1.5 | 56% |
| 4 | Minnesota | Cleveland | +1.5 | 44% |
| 5 | Minnesota | Detroit | -8.5 | 83% |
| 6 | Minnesota | at Carolina | PK | 50% |
| 8 | Minnesota | Dallas | -2.0 | 57% |
| 9 | Minnesota | at Baltimore | +7.0 | 24% |
| 10 | Minnesota | at LA Chargers | +3.0 | 42% |
| 11 | Minnesota | Green Bay | -3.0 | 58% |
| 12 | Minnesota | at San Francisco | +6.5 | 25% |
| 13 | Minnesota | at Detroit | -4.0 | 61% |
| 14 | Minnesota | Pittsburgh | -3.0 | 58% |
| 15 | Minnesota | at Chicago | -1.0 | 53% |
| 16 | Minnesota | LA Rams | +2.5 | 43% |
| 17 | Minnesota | at Green Bay | +3.0 | 42% |
| 18 | Minnesota | Chicago | -4.0 | 61% |
| 1 | New Orleans | Green Bay | -3.0 | 58% |
| 2 | New Orleans | at Carolina | -2.5 | 57% |
| 3 | New Orleans | at New England | PK | 50% |
| 4 | New Orleans | NY Giants | -5.5 | 72% |
| 5 | New Orleans | at Washington | -1.5 | 56% |
| 7 | New Orleans | at Seattle | +3.0 | 42% |
| 8 | New Orleans | Tampa Bay | +2.5 | 43% |
| 9 | New Orleans | Atlanta | -6.0 | 74% |
| 10 | New Orleans | at Tennessee | +2.5 | 43% |
| 11 | New Orleans | at Philadelphia | -3.5 | 60% |
| 12 | New Orleans | Buffalo | +1.5 | 44% |
| 13 | New Orleans | Dallas | -3.5 | 60% |
| 14 | New Orleans | at NY Jets | -3.0 | 58% |
| 15 | New Orleans | at Tampa Bay | +7.0 | 24% |
| 16 | New Orleans | Miami | -3.5 | 60% |
| 17 | New Orleans | Carolina | -6.5 | 75% |
| 18 | New England | at Atlanta | +1.0 | 47% |
| 1 | New England | Miami | -2.5 | 57% |
| 2 | New England | at NY Jets | -3.0 | 58% |
| 3 | New England | New Orleans | PK | 50% |
| 4 | New England | Tampa Bay | +3.5 | 41% |
| 5 | New England | at Houston | -6.0 | 74% |
| 6 | New England | Dallas | -1.5 | 56% |
| 7 | New England | NY Jets | -6.5 | 75% |
| 8 | New England | at LA Chargers | +2.5 | 43% |
| 9 | New England | at Carolina | PK | 50% |
| 10 | New England | Cleveland | +2.0 | 44% |
| 11 | New England | at Atlanta | +1.5 | 44% |
| 12 | New England | Tennessee | -1.5 | 56% |
| 13 | New England | at Buffalo | +7.0 | 24% |
| 15 | New England | at Indianapolis | +5.5 | 28% |
| 16 | New England | Buffalo | +3.5 | 41% |
| 17 | New England | Jacksonville | -5.5 | 72% |
| 18 | New England | at Miami | +2.5 | 43% |
| 1 | NY Giants | Denver | +1.0 | 47% |
| 2 | NY Giants | at Washington | +3.0 | 42% |
| 3 | NY Giants | Atlanta | -2.5 | 57% |
| 4 | NY Giants | at New Orleans | +5.5 | 28% |
| 5 | NY Giants | at Dallas | +5.5 | 28% |
| 6 | NY Giants | LA Rams | +3.5 | 41% |
| 7 | NY Giants | Carolina | -3.0 | 58% |
| 8 | NY Giants | at Kansas City | +10.0 | 13% |
| 9 | NY Giants | Las Vegas | -1.5 | 56% |
| 11 | NY Giants | at Tampa Bay | +10.0 | 13% |
| 12 | NY Giants | Philadelphia | -3.0 | 58% |
| 13 | NY Giants | at Miami | +3.5 | 41% |
| 14 | NY Giants | at LA Chargers | +6.0 | 26% |
| 15 | NY Giants | Dallas | +1.0 | 47% |
| 16 | NY Giants | at Philadelphia | +1.5 | 44% |
| 17 | NY Giants | at Chicago | +2.0 | 44% |
| 18 | NY Giants | Washington | -1.5 | 56% |
| 1 | NY Jets | at Carolina | +4.5 | 35% |
| 2 | NY Jets | New England | +3.0 | 42% |
| 3 | NY Jets | at Denver | +5.5 | 28% |
| 4 | NY Jets | Tennessee | +3.5 | 41% |
| 5 | NY Jets | at Atlanta | +3.0 | 42% |
| 7 | NY Jets | at New England | +6.5 | 25% |
| 8 | NY Jets | Cincinnati | -1.0 | 53% |
| 9 | NY Jets | at Indianapolis | +8.5 | 17% |
| 10 | NY Jets | Buffalo | +7.0 | 24% |
| 11 | NY Jets | Miami | +3.0 | 42% |
| 12 | NY Jets | at Houston | -1.0 | 53% |
| 13 | NY Jets | Philadelphia | -1.5 | 56% |
| 14 | NY Jets | New Orleans | +3.0 | 42% |
| 15 | NY Jets | at Miami | +6.5 | 25% |
| 16 | NY Jets | Jacksonville | -1.5 | 56% |
| 17 | NY Jets | Tampa Bay | +8.5 | 17% |
| 18 | NY Jets | at Buffalo | +6.5 | 25% |
| 1 | Philadelphia | at Atlanta | +3.5 | 41% |
| 2 | Philadelphia | San Francisco | +4.0 | 40% |
| 3 | Philadelphia | at Dallas | +6.5 | 25% |
| 4 | Philadelphia | Kansas City | +8.0 | 19% |
| 5 | Philadelphia | at Carolina | +3.0 | 42% |
| 6 | Philadelphia | Tampa Bay | +7.5 | 22% |
| 7 | Philadelphia | at Las Vegas | +3.5 | 41% |
| 8 | Philadelphia | at Detroit | -1.0 | 53% |
| 9 | Philadelphia | LA Chargers | +2.0 | 44% |
| 10 | Philadelphia | at Denver | +5.5 | 28% |
| 11 | Philadelphia | New Orleans | +3.5 | 41% |
| 12 | Philadelphia | at NY Giants | +3.0 | 42% |
| 13 | Philadelphia | at NY Jets | +1.5 | 44% |
| 15 | Philadelphia | Washington | -1.5 | 56% |
| 16 | Philadelphia | NY Giants | -1.5 | 56% |
| 17 | Philadelphia | at Washington | +3.5 | 41% |
| 18 | Philadelphia | Dallas | +2.5 | 43% |
| 1 | Pittsburgh | at Buffalo | +6.0 | 26% |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | Las Vegas | -5.5 | 72% |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | -6.0 | 74% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | at Green Bay | +2.5 | 43% |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | Denver | -4.5 | 65% |
| 6 | Pittsburgh | Seattle | -2.5 | 57% |
| 8 | Pittsburgh | at Cleveland | +4.5 | 35% |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | Chicago | -5.5 | 72% |
| 10 | Pittsburgh | Detroit | -7.5 | 78% |
| 11 | Pittsburgh | at LA Chargers | +2.5 | 43% |
| 12 | Pittsburgh | at Cincinnati | -3.0 | 58% |
| 13 | Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +2.5 | 43% |
| 14 | Pittsburgh | at Minnesota | +3.0 | 42% |
| 15 | Pittsburgh | Tennessee | -3.0 | 58% |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | at Kansas City | +8.5 | 17% |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | Cleveland | PK | 50% |
| 18 | Pittsburgh | at Baltimore | +5.5 | 28% |
| 1 | San Francisco | at Detroit | -7.5 | 78% |
| 2 | San Francisco | at Philadelphia | -4.0 | 61% |
| 3 | San Francisco | Green Bay | -5.0 | 69% |
| 4 | San Francisco | Seattle | -3.5 | 60% |
| 5 | San Francisco | at Arizona | PK | 50% |
| 7 | San Francisco | Indianapolis | -4.5 | 65% |
| 8 | San Francisco | at Chicago | -4.0 | 61% |
| 9 | San Francisco | Arizona | -5.5 | 72% |
| 10 | San Francisco | LA Rams | -3.0 | 58% |
| 11 | San Francisco | at Jacksonville | -4.0 | 61% |
| 12 | San Francisco | Minnesota | -6.5 | 75% |
| 13 | San Francisco | at Seattle | +1.5 | 44% |
| 14 | San Francisco | at Cincinnati | -3.5 | 60% |
| 15 | San Francisco | Atlanta | -7.5 | 78% |
| 16 | San Francisco | at Tennessee | -1.0 | 53% |
| 17 | San Francisco | Houston | -13.5 | 94% |
| 18 | San Francisco | at LA Rams | +3.0 | 42% |
| 1 | Seattle | at Indianapolis | +3.0 | 42% |
| 2 | Seattle | Tennessee | -3.5 | 60% |
| 3 | Seattle | at Minnesota | +1.5 | 44% |
| 4 | Seattle | at San Francisco | +3.5 | 41% |
| 5 | Seattle | LA Rams | PK | 50% |
| 6 | Seattle | at Pittsburgh | +2.5 | 43% |
| 7 | Seattle | New Orleans | -3.0 | 58% |
| 8 | Seattle | Jacksonville | -7.5 | 78% |
| 10 | Seattle | at Green Bay | +3.0 | 42% |
| 11 | Seattle | Arizona | -3.5 | 60% |
| 12 | Seattle | at Washington | -2.5 | 57% |
| 13 | Seattle | San Francisco | -1.5 | 56% |
| 14 | Seattle | at Houston | -7.0 | 76% |
| 15 | Seattle | at LA Rams | +4.0 | 40% |
| 16 | Seattle | Chicago | -5.5 | 72% |
| 17 | Seattle | Detroit | -9.5 | 86% |
| 18 | Seattle | at Arizona | +2.0 | 44% |
| 1 | Tampa Bay | Dallas | -6.5 | 75% |
| 2 | Tampa Bay | Atlanta | -9.5 | 86% |
| 3 | Tampa Bay | at LA Rams | +1.0 | 47% |
| 4 | Tampa Bay | at New England | -3.5 | 60% |
| 5 | Tampa Bay | Miami | -7.5 | 78% |
| 6 | Tampa Bay | at Philadelphia | -7.5 | 78% |
| 7 | Tampa Bay | Chicago | -10.0 | 87% |
| 8 | Tampa Bay | at New Orleans | -2.5 | 57% |
| 10 | Tampa Bay | at Washington | -6.5 | 75% |
| 11 | Tampa Bay | NY Giants | -10.0 | 87% |
| 12 | Tampa Bay | at Indianapolis | PK | 50% |
| 13 | Tampa Bay | at Atlanta | -4.5 | 65% |
| 14 | Tampa Bay | Buffalo | -4.0 | 61% |
| 15 | Tampa Bay | New Orleans | -7.0 | 76% |
| 16 | Tampa Bay | at Carolina | -6.5 | 75% |
| 17 | Tampa Bay | at NY Jets | -8.5 | 83% |
| 18 | Tampa Bay | Carolina | -6.5 | 75% |
| 1 | Tennessee | Arizona | -3.0 | 58% |
| 2 | Tennessee | at Seattle | +3.5 | 41% |
| 3 | Tennessee | Indianapolis | PK | 50% |
| 4 | Tennessee | at NY Jets | -3.5 | 60% |
| 5 | Tennessee | at Jacksonville | -3.0 | 58% |
| 6 | Tennessee | Buffalo | +2.5 | 43% |
| 7 | Tennessee | Kansas City | +4.5 | 35% |
| 8 | Tennessee | at Indianapolis | +3.5 | 41% |
| 9 | Tennessee | at LA Rams | +5.5 | 28% |
| 10 | Tennessee | New Orleans | -2.5 | 57% |
| 11 | Tennessee | Houston | -9.5 | 86% |
| 12 | Tennessee | at New England | +1.5 | 44% |
| 14 | Tennessee | Jacksonville | -6.5 | 75% |
| 15 | Tennessee | at Pittsburgh | +3.0 | 42% |
| 16 | Tennessee | San Francisco | +1.0 | 47% |
| 17 | Tennessee | Miami | -3.5 | 60% |
| 18 | Tennessee | at Houston | -6.0 | 74% |
| 1 | Washington | LA Chargers | +1.5 | 44% |
| 2 | Washington | NY Giants | -3.0 | 58% |
| 3 | Washington | at Buffalo | +7.5 | 22% |
| 4 | Washington | at Atlanta | +2.5 | 43% |
| 5 | Washington | New Orleans | +1.5 | 44% |
| 6 | Washington | Kansas City | +6.5 | 25% |
| 7 | Washington | at Green Bay | +4.0 | 40% |
| 8 | Washington | at Denver | +3.0 | 42% |
| 10 | Washington | Tampa Bay | +6.5 | 25% |
| 11 | Washington | at Carolina | +1.0 | 47% |
| 12 | Washington | Seattle | +2.5 | 43% |
| 13 | Washington | at Las Vegas | +2.5 | 43% |
| 14 | Washington | Dallas | -1.5 | 56% |
| 15 | Washington | at Philadelphia | +1.5 | 44% |
| 16 | Washington | at Dallas | +5.0 | 31% |
| 17 | Washington | Philadelphia | -3.5 | 60% |
| 18 | Washington | at NY Giants | +1.5 | 44% |