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Joe Burrow

Strong rookie season for top pick

In a quarterback item from yesterday, there was some discussion of Joe Burrow. If he's a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2021, it will be beating the odds, with Cincinnati seemingly unlikely to be a winning team. But it does happen, and maybe Burrow will be one of those exceptions.

Burrow's rookie season was cut short by a torn ACL, keeping his stats down and perhaps leading to him being lightly regarded in his second season. But looking at only those 10 games, Burrow was a huge success -- one of the best No. 1 overall picks in history.

There have been 26 quarterbacks selected 1st overall since the start of the common draft, with Trevor Lawrence the latest. Of those first 25, only four finished with better per-game fantasy numbers than Burrow just did. That's with scoring 1 point for every 10 rushing and 20 passing yards, with 4-point TD passes and 6-point TD runs.

Table shows full-season rookie numbers for those 25 No. 1 overall picks, and fantasy points per game.

TOP-PICK QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE SEASONS
YearPlayerGPassTDRunTDFPG
2011Cam Newton, Car.164051217061428.1
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.16437423255522.9
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.14372527131022.2
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.16372220544421.9
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.10268813142321.9
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.16404222213621.8
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.10226713108219.0
1998Peyton Manning, Ind.1637392662018.9
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.1635121863116.2
1993Drew Bledsoe, N.E.1324941582014.8
1971Jim Plunkett, N.E.14215819210014.6
1999Tim Couch, Cle.15244715267114.5
1987Vinny Testaverde, T.B.61081550114.2
1989Troy Aikman, Dall.1117499302013.9
1990Jeff George, Ind.132152162113.7
1975Steve Bartkowski, Atl.1116621315213.5
2002David Carr, Hou.1625929282313.5
1983John Elway, Den.1116637146112.0
2016Jared Goff, LAR71089516111.7
2001Michael Vick, Atl.87852289110.3
1970Terry Bradshaw, Pitt.131410623319.5
2004Eli Manning, NYG9104363508.9
2007JaMarcus Russell, Oak.43732407.3
2005Alex Smith, S.F.9875110306.5
2003Carson Palmer, Cin.000000.0

It's too soon to say Burrow is definitely going to be an NFL star. Coming off the torn ACL, we can't even be sure he'll be fully healthy at the start of this season.

But I don't think there should be any doubt the potential is there. Playing behind a bad line on the clear worst team in the AFC North last year, he had a great rookie season. Maybe he's not a top-1o quarterback in 2021, but he's a really high upside No. 2 with a chance to finish with top-12 or top-15 numbers.

--Andy Richardson

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