Frank Reich was talking up Jonathan Taylor recently, saying the second-year back has earned the right to be the main runner in the team's backfield. Occasionally there are items saying he'll lose work to Nyheim Hines or Marlon Mack, but I think they're overblown.
Mack is coming off a torn Achilles. He signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the Colts a couple of weeks into free agency -- not a huge contract, and not an indication he was fielding multiple offers. The facts are that Achilles injuries have short track records of success for players to come back from, especially at running back. Mack should open as the No. 3, perhaps getting some change-of-pace carries.
Hines will have his usual passing downs role, making him a viable option in PPR leagues. But he had that role all of last year, and Taylor finished as the No. 6-ranked running back. That's even with being brought along slowly, being much better in the second half of the season than the first.
Last year Taylor took some time to get going. In the first eight games he averaged just 3.9 yards per attempt, and finished with 594 total yards. That was just 14th among running backs, behind a tandem back or two and declining veteran Todd Gurley.
| 2020 RUNNING BACKS, FIRST 8 GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Run | Avg | TD | Rec | Total |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 471 | 4.9 | 8 | 565 | 1036 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 858 | 6.0 | 13 | 173 | 1031 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 843 | 4.6 | 8 | 81 | 924 |
| James Robinson, Jac. | 580 | 4.4 | 7 | 225 | 805 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 572 | 4.7 | 2 | 204 | 776 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 521 | 3.9 | 6 | 220 | 741 |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 588 | 3.7 | 6 | 125 | 713 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 520 | 4.4 | 5 | 123 | 643 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 442 | 3.8 | 2 | 200 | 642 |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 529 | 4.6 | 7 | 113 | 642 |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 529 | 4.5 | 4 | 109 | 638 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 447 | 5.0 | 7 | 182 | 629 |
| Todd Gurley, Atl. | 531 | 3.8 | 8 | 77 | 608 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 416 | 3.9 | 4 | 178 | 594 |
| Mike Davis, Car. | 350 | 4.2 | 4 | 244 | 594 |
| Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 387 | 3.9 | 2 | 198 | 585 |
| Darrell Henderson, LAR | 458 | 4.8 | 4 | 120 | 578 |
| Antonio Gibson, Was. | 391 | 4.3 | 5 | 182 | 573 |
| David Johnson, Hou. | 408 | 4.0 | 4 | 161 | 569 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 428 | 3.6 | 4 | 138 | 566 |
In the last eight games, Taylor took over the backfield, helping propel the team to the playoffs. He was a lot more effective (6.0 yards per attempt), and his 874 total yards was more than everyone but 2,000-yard rushed Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook (just 13 more total yards).
| 2020 RUNNING BACKS, LAST 8 GAMES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Run | Avg | TD | Rec | Total |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 1184 | 6.0 | 9 | 33 | 1217 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 699 | 4.2 | 4 | 188 | 887 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 753 | 6.0 | 8 | 121 | 874 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 628 | 4.8 | 8 | 238 | 866 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 732 | 5.5 | 8 | 133 | 865 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 657 | 5.9 | 4 | 173 | 830 |
| Melvin Gordon, Den. | 593 | 5.0 | 5 | 71 | 664 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 461 | 5.1 | 13 | 191 | 652 |
| James Robinson, Jac. | 490 | 4.5 | 3 | 119 | 609 |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 477 | 4.3 | 6 | 113 | 590 |
| Wayne Gallman, NYG | 528 | 4.8 | 4 | 55 | 583 |
| Cam Akers, LAR | 477 | 4.3 | 3 | 100 | 577 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 458 | 4.1 | 2 | 118 | 576 |
| Kenyan Drake, Ariz. | 443 | 3.7 | 6 | 108 | 551 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 282 | 4.2 | 2 | 259 | 541 |
| J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 508 | 6.2 | 7 | 33 | 541 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 433 | 4.7 | 3 | 106 | 539 |
| J.D. McKissic, Was. | 197 | 3.9 | 3 | 341 | 538 |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 273 | 4.9 | 3 | 262 | 535 |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 395 | 5.7 | 3 | 118 | 513 |
I think it's a really interesting first round of drafts this year. With so many players coming off injury (McCaffrey, Barkley) or disappointing seasons (Elliott), everyone is going to have different views of how to order the franchise-type running backs. Taylor could go anywhere from 3rd to 8th in different leagues. I'll have him at the higher end of that.
--Andy Richardson