It's a slow news time in the NFL, which is why you get some "if" and "maybe" stories around the league. One I saw recently talked about how Zack Moss could take over Buffalo's backfield (which includes Devin Singletary and newly signed Matt Breida "...if he continues to improve."
I'm on board with Moss as a potential sleeper. Singletary has had two years to stand out and hasn't done so, while Breida has bounced around the league since showing promise in San Francisco initially. Moss flashed at times last year, though an injury sapped any momentum. I can't, however, get too excited about the second-year back, mostly because of the offensive structure (which heavily emphasized the pass a year ago and will again). And Josh Allen.
Since Allen entered the league, Buffalo running backs have found the end zone at the lowest rate in the league. By far.
Over the past three seasons, the Bills have 44 rushing touchdowns. That's 16th among NFL teams, so exactly middle-of-the-pack. But their running backs have accounted for only 16 of those rushing scores, tied with Jacksonville for worst in the league over those three years. That's just 36 percent of the team total, lowest in the league by a wide margin. All but one of the league's other teams have had running backs account for at least two-thirds of their rushing scores. Even Houston has had running backs score more than half of them. Buffalo is barely over a third.
| TEAM RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS, 2018-2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | RuTD | RB TD | Pct/RB |
| Detroit | 35 | 34 | 97.1% |
| Minnesota | 48 | 44 | 91.7% |
| Seattle | 45 | 40 | 88.9% |
| Green Bay | 48 | 42 | 87.5% |
| San Francisco | 49 | 42 | 85.7% |
| Denver | 42 | 36 | 85.7% |
| Pittsburgh | 35 | 30 | 85.7% |
| Washington | 39 | 33 | 84.6% |
| Cleveland | 51 | 43 | 84.3% |
| Jacksonville | 19 | 16 | 84.2% |
| NY Giants | 37 | 31 | 83.8% |
| LA Chargers | 40 | 33 | 82.5% |
| Atlanta | 34 | 28 | 82.4% |
| Las Vegas | 42 | 34 | 81.0% |
| Tampa Bay | 42 | 34 | 81.0% |
| Indianapolis | 50 | 40 | 80.0% |
| LA Rams | 62 | 48 | 77.4% |
| Philadelphia | 44 | 34 | 77.3% |
| NY Jets | 26 | 20 | 76.9% |
| Tennessee | 62 | 47 | 75.8% |
| Kansas City | 45 | 34 | 75.6% |
| Chicago | 36 | 27 | 75.0% |
| New Orleans | 68 | 50 | 73.5% |
| Cincinnati | 35 | 25 | 71.4% |
| Baltimore | 64 | 45 | 70.3% |
| Carolina | 56 | 39 | 69.6% |
| Arizona | 49 | 34 | 69.4% |
| Dallas | 45 | 31 | 68.9% |
| Miami | 32 | 22 | 68.8% |
| New England | 55 | 37 | 67.3% |
| Houston | 39 | 22 | 56.4% |
| Buffalo | 44 | 16 | 36.4% |
Running backs do other things; Singletary and Moss combined to catch 52 passes for 364 yards and a touchdown last year. Should the team settle on one, featured back, they can probably have a viable player, at least in PPR.
But it's far from certain they'll do that, and it's pretty likely that even if they do, that player won't get in the end zone very often. Not great production to chase even in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.
--Andy Richardson