Story yesterday about New England running back Damien Harris. Beat writer Mike Reiss thinks he's the team's sure-fire No. 1 running back, which makes sense. Fourth-rounder Rhamondre Stevenson figures to be brought along slowly, while Sony Michel isn't a roster lock. How valuable might Harris be?
Simplest answer is scoring system (and perhaps whichever quarterback, Cam Newton or Mac Jones, starts the most games) is critical. The way New England uses or neglects to use their running backs, Harris should have some good games, but disappoint in many others.
Strictly for rushing yards, Harris was better than you might realize a year ago. In 10 games as a starter or lead-type running back, he averaged 69 rushing yards per game. That was 11th among backs who either started or had a significant role as often, which makes him seem like a value where he'll be drafted in most leagues.
| RUNNING BACKS PER GAME 2020 (10-PLUS STARTS) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Run | No | Rec | Total | TD | PPR |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 16 | 126.7 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 133.8 | 1.08 | 21.1 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 14 | 111.2 | 3.1 | 25.8 | 137.0 | 1.29 | 24.6 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 12 | 88.9 | 1.3 | 12.5 | 101.4 | 1.00 | 17.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 14 | 81.9 | 2.1 | 16.6 | 98.5 | .86 | 17.1 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 14 | 78.9 | 3.4 | 25.4 | 104.2 | .79 | 18.5 |
| James Robinson, Jac. | 14 | 76.4 | 3.5 | 24.6 | 101.0 | .74 | 18.0 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 12 | 72.3 | 2.3 | 16.4 | 88.7 | .56 | 14.5 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 15 | 71.3 | 3.6 | 29.2 | 100.5 | .69 | 17.8 |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 15 | 71.0 | 2.2 | 15.9 | 86.9 | .80 | 15.7 |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 14 | 69.9 | 2.0 | 11.8 | 81.6 | .57 | 13.6 |
| Damien Harris, N.E. | 10 | 69.1 | .5 | 5.2 | 74.3 | .20 | 9.1 |
| Melvin Gordon, Den. | 15 | 65.7 | 2.1 | 10.5 | 76.3 | .67 | 13.8 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 65.3 | 3.5 | 22.5 | 87.8 | .56 | 15.6 |
| Kenyan Drake, Ariz. | 15 | 63.7 | 1.7 | 9.1 | 72.8 | .67 | 12.9 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 15 | 62.1 | 5.5 | 50.4 | 112.5 | 1.40 | 25.2 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 13 | 61.8 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 84.6 | .38 | 13.5 |
| Myles Gaskin, Mia. | 10 | 58.4 | 4.1 | 38.8 | 97.2 | .50 | 16.8 |
| Wayne Gallman, NYG | 10 | 57.9 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 67.3 | .50 | 11.1 |
| David Johnson, Hou. | 12 | 57.6 | 2.8 | 26.2 | 83.8 | .67 | 15.1 |
| Antonio Gibson, Was. | 14 | 56.8 | 2.6 | 17.6 | 74.4 | .79 | 14.7 |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 12 | 56.8 | 3.1 | 23.9 | 80.7 | .75 | 15.7 |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 13 | 55.5 | 2.7 | 16.5 | 72.0 | .46 | 12.7 |
| J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 15 | 53.7 | 1.2 | 8.0 | 61.7 | .64 | 11.2 |
| Mike Davis, Car. | 12 | 53.2 | 3.8 | 22.1 | 75.3 | .67 | 15.4 |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 10 | 53.0 | 5.4 | 40.3 | 93.3 | .30 | 16.5 |
| Kareem Hunt (total), Cle. | 16 | 52.6 | 2.4 | 19.0 | 71.6 | .69 | 13.7 |
| D'Andre Swift, Det. | 10 | 50.1 | 3.7 | 26.3 | 76.4 | .90 | 16.7 |
| Kareem Hunt (C), Cle. | 12 | 48.9 | 2.3 | 19.4 | 68.3 | .75 | 13.7 |
| Darrell Henderson, LAR | 11 | 48.5 | 1.2 | 10.4 | 58.9 | .45 | 9.8 |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 11 | 45.6 | .6 | 2.5 | 48.2 | .09 | 6.0 |
| Todd Gurley, Atl. | 15 | 45.2 | 1.7 | 10.9 | 56.1 | .60 | 10.9 |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 16 | 45.2 | .6 | 8.1 | 53.3 | .38 | 8.1 |
| Latavius Murray (C), N.O. | 15 | 43.7 | 1.5 | 11.7 | 55.5 | .33 | 9.1 |
| Frank Gore, NYJ | 15 | 43.5 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 49.5 | .13 | 6.8 |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 16 | 42.9 | 2.4 | 16.8 | 59.8 | .13 | 9.1 |
| Adrian Peterson, Det. | 12 | 40.6 | .9 | 7.7 | 48.3 | .58 | 9.2 |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 10 | 37.2 | 3.1 | 24.0 | 61.2 | .50 | 12.2 |
| Zack Moss, Buff. | 13 | 37.0 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 44.3 | .38 | 7.8 |
| Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 12 | 30.6 | 3.0 | 19.4 | 50.0 | .50 | 11.0 |
| Rex Burkhead (C), N.E. | 10 | 27.4 | 2.5 | 19.2 | 46.6 | .60 | 10.8 |
| Malcolm Brown (C), LAR | 16 | 26.2 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 36.3 | .31 | 6.9 |
| Nyheim Hines (C), Ind. | 16 | 23.8 | 3.9 | 30.1 | 53.9 | .46 | 12.1 |
| J.D. McKissic, Was. | 16 | 22.8 | 5.0 | 36.8 | 59.6 | .19 | 12.1 |
| James White (3rd), N.E. | 14 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 26.8 | 35.4 | .21 | 8.3 |
| Kyle Juszczyk (FB), S.F. | 16 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 12.6 | 16.6 | .38 | 5.1 |
But James White gets all the work in the passing game, and Newton last year scored 60 percent of the team's rushing touchdowns. The result is if you sort the same table of running backs by either PPR scoring or TDs, Harris crashes all the way down to being either a bottom-10 or bottom-5 running back. Not a player you want to count on in lineups.
So I think you need to keep expectations in check. Merely beating out Michel and Stevenson for the lead runner role is nice for Harris. And if Jones starts most of the season at quarterback, which is possible, maybe Harris winds up punching in 8-9 touchdowns; it wouldn't be possible for Jones to call his own number near the goal line as often as Newton does.
But I think about an 80-yard per game, 8-TD running back is Harris' best-case scenario. That's fine in standard scoring leagues, but in PPR he's going to be outperformed by a lot of running backs who will run for a lot fewer yards, but catch 3-5 passes per game. With Reiss' report likely to push him higher in a lot of drafts, I don't imagine Harris will make it on to very many of my teams.
--Andy Richardson