Is David Montgomery underrated? I think so. Early ADP data suggests he's about the 20th running back off the board, and that's where he showed up in our Experts Poll, as well. I fully understand the concerns, but based on last year -- for what it's worth -- he should probably be anywhere from 5-8 spots higher.
Yes, Montgomery's 2020 was primarily characterized by a late-season explosion against a string of really bad defenses. Many running backs would have put up monster numbers while playing a month straight against Detroit, Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville, all of whom were garbage last year, especially late in the game when everyone had checked out. Without that streak of 110-plus total yard performances (in most games, much more) to close the year, he'd have been more of a top-15 type of back for the year, rather than top-5.
But favorable schedule or no, Montgomery delivered. And with Matt Nagy saying his goal is to get Montgomery 20 carries per game this season, good chance he'll be in position to reward fantasy teams who select him in 2021, too.
Chicago committed to Montgomery last season. Tarik Cohen getting hurt was key, of course. With Cohen tearing his ACL early on, Montgomery was a workhorse. He had about two-thirds of Chicago's rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns last season -- top-5 in all three categories. Table, sorted by percentage of team TD runs, shows all running backs with at least a quarter of their team's scores.
| RUNNING BACK PERCENT OF TEAM, 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Att | Yds | TDR | Att% | Yds% | TDR% |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 312 | 1557 | 16 | 67% | 68% | 80% |
| James Robinson, Jac. | 240 | 1070 | 7 | 71% | 70% | 78% |
| Melvin Gordon, Den. | 215 | 986 | 9 | 49% | 51% | 69% |
| Todd Gurley, Atl. | 195 | 678 | 9 | 48% | 44% | 69% |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 247 | 1070 | 8 | 63% | 65% | 67% |
| Derrick Henry , Ten. | 378 | 2027 | 17 | 73% | 75% | 65% |
| Antonio Gibson, Was. | 170 | 795 | 11 | 43% | 49% | 61% |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 273 | 1065 | 12 | 60% | 56% | 60% |
| David Johnson, Hou. | 147 | 691 | 6 | 43% | 47% | 60% |
| Nick Chubb, Clev. | 190 | 1067 | 12 | 38% | 45% | 57% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 201 | 1104 | 9 | 45% | 52% | 56% |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 232 | 1169 | 11 | 51% | 59% | 55% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 187 | 932 | 16 | 38% | 41% | 53% |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 169 | 721 | 6 | 45% | 53% | 50% |
| D'Andre Swift, Det. | 114 | 521 | 8 | 31% | 35% | 47% |
| Wayne Gallman, NYG | 147 | 682 | 6 | 37% | 39% | 46% |
| Kenyan Drake, Ariz. | 239 | 955 | 10 | 50% | 43% | 45% |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 192 | 978 | 7 | 52% | 64% | 44% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 244 | 979 | 6 | 57% | 55% | 43% |
| Adrian Peterson, Det. | 156 | 604 | 7 | 43% | 40% | 41% |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 164 | 867 | 6 | 41% | 43% | 38% |
| Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 97 | 367 | 6 | 26% | 24% | 38% |
| J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 134 | 805 | 9 | 24% | 26% | 38% |
| Jeff Wilson, S.F. | 126 | 600 | 7 | 29% | 32% | 37% |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 141 | 681 | 5 | 34% | 35% | 33% |
| Benny Snell, Pitt. | 111 | 368 | 4 | 30% | 27% | 33% |
| Mike Davis, Car. | 165 | 642 | 6 | 41% | 38% | 32% |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 181 | 803 | 4 | 45% | 45% | 31% |
| Kareem Hunt, Clev. | 198 | 841 | 6 | 40% | 35% | 29% |
| Tony Pollard, Dall. | 101 | 435 | 4 | 23% | 24% | 29% |
| Carlos Hyde, Sea. | 81 | 356 | 4 | 20% | 18% | 27% |
| Jordan Howard, Mia. | 28 | 33 | 4 | 7% | 2% | 27% |
| Darrell Henderson, LAR | 138 | 624 | 5 | 29% | 31% | 26% |
| Malcolm Brown, LAR | 101 | 419 | 5 | 21% | 21% | 26% |
| Jerick McKinnon, S.F. | 81 | 319 | 5 | 19% | 17% | 26% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 59 | 225 | 5 | 14% | 13% | 26% |
| Zack Moss, Buff. | 112 | 481 | 4 | 27% | 28% | 25% |
| Gus Edwards, Balt. | 144 | 723 | 6 | 26% | 24% | 25% |
| Kalen Ballage, LAC | 88 | 290 | 3 | 19% | 16% | 25% |
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Chicago will have Cohen back for a share of the work, and it also signed Damien Williams. If Justin Fields starts at quarterback, a healthy chunk of the rushing touchdowns might be accounted for by him (more so than if Andy Dalton starts, most likely).
But Montgomery looks like their guy. Cohen might not be 100 percent at the start of the season, and Williams didn't play at all after opting out last year -- might be best viewed as an insurance policy or occasional change of pace. For now, the Bears are saying it will be Dalton at quarterback. I think top-15 for Montgomery is a reasonable finish.
--Andy Richardson