Scary week for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. The quarterback left practice on Wednesday with soreness in his throwing arm, and underwent an MRI. The good news is that it doesn't seem to be serious: Prescott has a strained muscle in his throwing shoulder. The team will shut him down (at least in terms of throwing) for a couple of days, according to Mike McCarthy, but the issue is considered minor.
The season is more than five weeks away, so I think Prescott can still be drafted with confidence. Arguably this is an opportunity to get one of the league's best fantasy quarterbacks at a slight discount, as some teams will undoubtedly be scared away. Those who take on the slight risk could be handsomely rewarded, because Prescott in Dallas has been pretty awesome the past few years.
Prescott played in only five games last season before getting injured, but those were some games. He averaged over 33 fantasy points in a scoring system that awards 4 for TD passes, 6 for runs, and 1 for every 10 rushing and 20 passing yards. That's the top average for any quarterback with at least 5 starts in any of the past four seasons. Looking at the top 60 such performances since 2017, Prescott shows up on that list three times.
QB FANTASY POINTS PER GAME, 2017-2020 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Pass | TD | Run | TDR | PPR | FF/G |
2020 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 5 | 1856 | 9 | 93 | 3 | 168.2 | 33.6 |
2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 16 | 5097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 31.0 |
2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 3127 | 36 | 1206 | 7 | 463.0 | 30.9 |
2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 4544 | 37 | 421 | 8 | 473.5 | 29.6 |
2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 15 | 4740 | 38 | 308 | 2 | 437.8 | 29.2 |
2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 7 | 1699 | 19 | 269 | 2 | 203.9 | 29.1 |
2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3971 | 26 | 819 | 11 | 450.45 | 28.2 |
2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4299 | 48 | 149 | 3 | 440.25 | 27.5 |
2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4823 | 33 | 444 | 3 | 437.55 | 27.3 |
2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4212 | 40 | 513 | 2 | 435.9 | 27.2 |
2018 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B. | 8 | 2366 | 17 | 152 | 2 | 215.5 | 26.9 |
2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 16 | 5129 | 34 | 98 | 3 | 429.2 | 26.8 |
2018 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 4924 | 35 | 125 | 3 | 428.2 | 26.8 |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 5109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 | 26.7 |
2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 | 26.5 |
2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 3983 | 34 | 586 | 3 | 415.8 | 26.0 |
2019 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 15 | 3852 | 26 | 413 | 7 | 389.5 | 26.0 |
2019 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 8 | 2499 | 19 | 66 | 0 | 207.6 | 25.9 |
2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 4902 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 | 25.8 |
2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 2757 | 26 | 1005 | 7 | 386.35 | 25.8 |
2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 3296 | 33 | 299 | 0 | 334.7 | 25.7 |
2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 16 | 4633 | 40 | 6 | 3 | 410.25 | 25.6 |
2018 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4593 | 39 | 148 | 0 | 405.9 | 25.4 |
2020 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 16 | 3819 | 33 | 266 | 7 | 398.55 | 24.9 |
2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 16 | 4165 | 26 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 | 24.8 |
2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 16 | 4688 | 32 | 108 | 2 | 397.2 | 24.8 |
2018 | Cam Newton, Car. | 14 | 3395 | 24 | 488 | 4 | 342.6 | 24.5 |
2019 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 14 | 4031 | 26 | 218 | 2 | 341.4 | 24.4 |
2020 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 4265 | 35 | 156 | 1 | 384.85 | 24.1 |
2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 4110 | 31 | 342 | 3 | 383.7 | 24.0 |
2019 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 11 | 2979 | 27 | -4 | 1 | 262.6 | 23.9 |
2018 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 15 | 3992 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 356.9 | 23.8 |
2018 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 11 | 2992 | 19 | 281 | 1 | 259.7 | 23.6 |
2019 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 15 | 4466 | 26 | 147 | 1 | 350.0 | 23.3 |
2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 3223 | 24 | 421 | 3 | 325.3 | 23.2 |
2017 | Alex Smith, K.C. | 15 | 4042 | 26 | 355 | 1 | 347.6 | 23.2 |
2018 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 4442 | 25 | 269 | 2 | 367.0 | 22.9 |
2017 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 7 | 1675 | 16 | 126 | 0 | 160.4 | 22.9 |
2017 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 3302 | 22 | 754 | 6 | 366.5 | 22.9 |
2018 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 11 | 3074 | 21 | 93 | 0 | 250.4 | 22.8 |
2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 4577 | 32 | 28 | 0 | 363.7 | 22.7 |
2018 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 16 | 4298 | 30 | 123 | 1 | 360.1 | 22.5 |
2019 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 12 | 2742 | 22 | 185 | 4 | 269.6 | 22.5 |
2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 13 | 3027 | 24 | 279 | 2 | 291.3 | 22.4 |
2020 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 9 | 2259 | 16 | 153 | 1 | 201.25 | 22.4 |
2020 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 4581 | 26 | 92 | 2 | 356.25 | 22.3 |
2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 14 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | 0 | 311.4 | 22.2 |
2017 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 15 | 4251 | 28 | 47 | 0 | 333.3 | 22.2 |
2017 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 16 | 4093 | 27 | 179 | 4 | 354.6 | 22.2 |
2018 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 16 | 4308 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 354.1 | 22.1 |
2018 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 3885 | 22 | 305 | 6 | 352.8 | 22.0 |
2017 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 4446 | 29 | 98 | 0 | 352.1 | 22.0 |
2018 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 3448 | 35 | 376 | 0 | 351.9 | 22.0 |
2018 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 4355 | 29 | 35 | 2 | 350.9 | 21.9 |
2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 | 21.9 |
2020 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 12 | 2620 | 16 | 276 | 5 | 262.6 | 21.9 |
2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 2688 | 13 | 142 | 3 | 218.6 | 21.9 |
2020 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 15 | 3803 | 33 | 11 | 0 | 327.25 | 21.8 |
2020 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 16 | 4103 | 27 | 140 | 3 | 347.15 | 21.7 |
2019 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 3089 | 20 | 510 | 9 | 345.5 | 21.6 |
Factoring in this health scare, Prescott will likely be undervalued in drafts. He won't be selected as early as several top quarterbacks, most likely, but when factoring in his dual-threat ability and what looks to be a suspect Cowboys defense, the potential is there for him to outperform them.
Maybe he won't be as good as last year (Dallas's defense couldn't possibly be as bad as it was in those games where Prescott was tearing it up), but assuming he's back throwing passes within a couple of weeks, he looks very appealing.
--Andy Richardson