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Dak Prescott

Strained muscle for fantasy difference maker

Scary week for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. The quarterback left practice on Wednesday with soreness in his throwing arm, and underwent an MRI. The good news is that it doesn't seem to be serious: Prescott has a strained muscle in his throwing shoulder. The team will shut him down (at least in terms of throwing) for a couple of days, according to Mike McCarthy, but the issue is considered minor.

The season is more than five weeks away, so I think Prescott can still be drafted with confidence. Arguably this is an opportunity to get one of the league's best fantasy quarterbacks at a slight discount, as some teams will undoubtedly be scared away. Those who take on the slight risk could be handsomely rewarded, because Prescott in Dallas has been pretty awesome the past few years.

Prescott played in only five games last season before getting injured, but those were some games. He averaged over 33 fantasy points in a scoring system that awards 4 for TD passes, 6 for runs, and 1 for every 10 rushing and 20 passing yards. That's the top average for any quarterback with at least 5 starts in any of the past four seasons. Looking at the top 60 such performances since 2017, Prescott shows up on that list three times.

QB FANTASY POINTS PER GAME, 2017-2020
YearPlayerGPassTDRunTDRPPRFF/G
2020Dak Prescott, Dall.518569933168.233.6
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.165097502722496.131.0
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.1531273612067463.030.9
2020Josh Allen, Buff.164544374218473.529.6
2020Patrick Mahomes, K.C.154740383082437.829.2
2017Deshaun Watson, Hou.71699192692203.929.1
2020Kyler Murray, Ariz.1639712681911450.4528.2
2020Aaron Rodgers, G.B.164299481493440.2527.5
2020Deshaun Watson, Hou.164823334443437.5527.3
2020Russell Wilson, Sea.164212405132435.927.2
2018Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B.82366171522215.526.9
2018Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.16512934983429.226.8
2018Matt Ryan, Atl.164924351253428.226.8
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.165109332501426.526.7
2020Justin Herbert, LAC154336312345398.226.5
2017Russell Wilson, Sea.163983345863415.826.0
2019Deshaun Watson, Hou.153852264137389.526.0
2019Matthew Stafford, Det.8249919660207.625.9
2019Dak Prescott, Dall.164902302773412.825.8
2020Lamar Jackson, Balt.1527572610057386.3525.8
2017Carson Wentz, Phil.133296332990334.725.7
2020Tom Brady, T.B.1646334063410.2525.6
2018Andrew Luck, Ind.164593391480405.925.4
2020Ryan Tannehill, Ten.163819332667398.5524.9
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.164165265515397.424.8
2018Jared Goff, LAR164688321082397.224.8
2018Cam Newton, Car.143395244884342.624.5
2019Patrick Mahomes, K.C.144031262182341.424.4
2020Kirk Cousins, Min.164265351561384.8524.1
2019Russell Wilson, Sea.164110313423383.724.0
2019Drew Brees, N.O.11297927-41262.623.9
2018Drew Brees, N.O.15399232224356.923.8
2018Jameis Winston, T.B.112992192811259.723.6
2019Matt Ryan, Atl.154466261471350.023.3
2018Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.143223244213325.323.2
2017Alex Smith, K.C.154042263551347.623.2
2018Aaron Rodgers, G.B.164442252692367.022.9
2017Aaron Rodgers, G.B.71675161260160.422.9
2017Cam Newton, Car.163302227546366.522.9
2018Carson Wentz, Phil.11307421930250.422.8
2017Tom Brady, N.E.16457732280363.722.7
2018Kirk Cousins, Min.164298301231360.122.5
2019Ryan Tannehill, Ten.122742221854269.622.5
2019Daniel Jones, NYG133027242792291.322.4
2020Gardner Minshew, Jac.92259161531201.2522.4
2020Matt Ryan, Atl.16458126922356.2522.3
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.143725271310311.422.2
2017Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.15425128470333.322.2
2017Kirk Cousins, Was.164093271794354.622.2
2018Philip Rivers, LAC1643083270354.122.1
2018Dak Prescott, Dall.163885223056352.822.0
2017Matthew Stafford, Det.16444629980352.122.0
2018Russell Wilson, Sea.163448353760351.922.0
2018Tom Brady, N.E.16435529352350.921.9
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.163722205444350.521.9
2020Carson Wentz, Phil.122620162765262.621.9
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.102688131423218.621.9
2020Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.15380333110327.2521.8
2020Derek Carr, L.V.164103271403347.1521.7
2019Josh Allen, Buff.163089205109345.521.6

Factoring in this health scare, Prescott will likely be undervalued in drafts. He won't be selected as early as several top quarterbacks, most likely, but when factoring in his dual-threat ability and what looks to be a suspect Cowboys defense, the potential is there for him to outperform them.

Maybe he won't be as good as last year (Dallas's defense couldn't possibly be as bad as it was in those games where Prescott was tearing it up), but assuming he's back throwing passes within a couple of weeks, he looks very appealing.

--Andy Richardson

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