The Texans look like they’re going to be pretty god-awful – the worst team in the league. And that makes it look pretty likely that there shouldn’t be much of value on that roster to pick from.
Suppose, for example, that the Texans win only 2 games. And I think that’s a possibility – I don’t see who they’re supposed to beat (and I’m working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson doesn’t play for them in 2021). Since 2000, there have been 27 games that have failed to win 3 games in a season, and those teams have generate much in terms of quality fantasy performers.
I pulled up the numbers on this, and they’re pretty spartan. Of those 27 lousy team only four finished with top-20 quarterbacks.
TOP-25 QUARTERBACKS FROM CRAPPY TEAMS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | PPR | Rk |
2008 | Tyler Thigpen, K.C. | 2,608 | 18 | 386 | 3 | 271.7 | 12 |
2002 | Jon Kitna, Cin. | 3,178 | 16 | 57 | 4 | 252.6 | 17 |
2005 | David Carr, Hou. | 2,488 | 14 | 308 | 1 | 219.2 | 18 |
2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 2,931 | 11 | 128 | 6 | 239.4 | 19 |
2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | 2,894 | 11 | 419 | 5 | 260.6 | 22 |
2019 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 3,494 | 16 | 73 | 4 | 274.6 | 22 |
2007 | Cleo Lemon, Mia. | 1,773 | 6 | 102 | 4 | 146.9 | 25 |
2009 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 2,267 | 13 | 108 | 2 | 190.2 | 25 |
Only 12 finished with top-20 running backs, and I’ll admit that’s higher than what I was expecting. Using PPR scoring, 12 of those 27 teams – almost half – had a top-20 running back. James Robinson of last year’s Jaguars leads the way in this category – 7th among backs last year.
The below chart supports the notion that David Johnson (of this year’s Texans) maybe has some chance of being a serviceable depth running back. But I don’t see it. I’m not advocating anybody goes after Johnson with any other than modest expectations.
TOP-30 RUNNING BACKS FROM CRAPPY TEAMS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD | PPR | Rk |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1,070 | 344 | 1,414 | 10 | 252.4 | 7 |
2009 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,416 | 322 | 1,738 | 4 | 248.8 | 8 |
2012 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1,509 | 236 | 1,745 | 6 | 245.5 | 9 |
2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,145 | 333 | 1,478 | 6 | 225.8 | 10 |
2017 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 348 | 693 | 1,041 | 7 | 220.1 | 11 |
2019 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 1,137 | 287 | 1,424 | 8 | 225.4 | 13 |
2016 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | 952 | 319 | 1,271 | 7 | 209.1 | 14 |
2008 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1,042 | 379 | 1,421 | 8 | 230.1 | 15 |
2005 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 976 | 337 | 1,313 | 6 | 206.3 | 15 |
2002 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 1,311 | 298 | 1,609 | 7 | 245.9 | 16 |
2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 976 | 286 | 1,262 | 8 | 213.2 | 17 |
2016 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 988 | 163 | 1,151 | 9 | 198.1 | 18 |
2009 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 747 | 415 | 1,162 | 5 | 187.2 | 21 |
2007 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 602 | 389 | 991 | 5 | 170.1 | 23 |
2004 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 822 | 212 | 1,034 | 7 | 180.4 | 24 |
2001 | Cory Schlesinger, Det. | 154 | 466 | 620 | 3 | 140.0 | 28 |
2013 | Ben Tate, Hou. | 771 | 140 | 911 | 4 | 149.1 | 30 |
With wide receivers, I see six who finished with top-20 stats and another eight who ranked in the top 30. If you want to push it out to the top 40, I see 19 wide receivers from those 27 teams. If you’re thinking about Brandin Cooks, this is a positive sign – an indication he might have a top-40 season in him.
TOP-40 WIDE RECEIVERS FROM CRAPPY TEAMS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2008 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 78 | 1,331 | 12 | 285.0 | 3 |
2013 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 109 | 1,407 | 5 | 279.7 | 10 |
2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
2008 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 86 | 1,022 | 7 | 230.2 | 16 |
2019 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 90 | 1,046 | 5 | 226.9 | 17 |
2016 | Terrelle Pryor, Cle. | 77 | 1,007 | 5 | 213.9 | 20 |
2002 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 69 | 1,166 | 5 | 215.6 | 21 |
2011 | Pierre Garcon, Ind. | 70 | 947 | 6 | 203.5 | 22 |
2009 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 67 | 984 | 5 | 202.7 | 22 |
2001 | Johnnie Morton, Det. | 77 | 1,154 | 4 | 217.0 | 22 |
2011 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 75 | 960 | 4 | 195.0 | 25 |
2012 | Cecil Shorts, Jac. | 55 | 979 | 7 | 194.5 | 26 |
2000 | Jeff Graham, S.D. | 55 | 907 | 4 | 169.7 | 29 |
2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
2014 | Vincent Jackson, T.B. | 70 | 1,002 | 2 | 182.2 | 33 |
2008 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 64 | 796 | 3 | 161.6 | 35 |
2000 | Curtis Conway, S.D. | 53 | 712 | 5 | 157.3 | 38 |
2020 | Jamison Crowder, NYJ | 59 | 699 | 6 | 172.5 | 39 |
2008 | Donnie Avery, St.L. | 53 | 674 | 4 | 151.3 | 39 |
At tight end, five of these 27 lesser teams had players ranking in the top 10 at their position. Tony Gonzalez is the headliner – No. 1 among tight ends in scoring in 2008 while the losses piled up for the team around him.
TOP-25 TIGHT ENDS FROM CRAPPY TEAMS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2008 | Tony Gonzalez, K.C. | 96 | 1,058 | 10 | 261.8 | 1 |
2000 | Freddie Jones, S.D. | 71 | 766 | 5 | 177.6 | 3 |
2004 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 82 | 825 | 2 | 176.5 | 5 |
2014 | Delanie Walker, Ten. | 63 | 890 | 4 | 176.0 | 8 |
2001 | David Sloan, Det. | 37 | 409 | 7 | 119.9 | 9 |
2001 | Wesley Walls, Car. | 43 | 452 | 5 | 118.2 | 11 |
2013 | Garrett Graham, Hou. | 49 | 545 | 5 | 133.5 | 15 |
2012 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 52 | 540 | 4 | 130.0 | 18 |
2016 | Gary Barnidge, Cle. | 55 | 612 | 2 | 130.2 | 19 |
2019 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 43 | 436 | 3 | 106.6 | 19 |
2017 | David Njoku, Cle. | 32 | 386 | 4 | 94.7 | 24 |
2009 | Will Heller, Det. | 29 | 296 | 3 | 76.6 | 25 |
—Ian Allan