Luke Wilson answers your fantasy football questions. Keeper league roster decisions kick into high gear, second-year running backs are measured against one another, a Cheatsheet Challenge is issued, a wide receiver handcuff strategy is explored — and the search for "fantasy gold". All that and more in this, our final Mailbag of July.
Question 1
Fantasy gold is a high powered offense that has a terrible defense. Which teams have this combination producing lots of shootouts?
James Costello (Portland, ME)
Good question Mr. C. The obvious answers are going to be Dallas and Cincinnati; both of whom were simply too terrible last year for us to believe they'll improve significantly until they force us to do so. At the risk of some hometown bias, I am tentatively forecasting Dallas into the 22-24 range in total defense — there's too much buzz around this new DC, and they're making Maxx Crosby overtures too loudly. Cincinnati did lose Trey Hendrickson, and now last year's first rounder Shemar Stewart will be out for awhile after this week's knee hyperextension. But adding Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Bryan Cook and Boye Mafe is a pretty serious play for jumpstarting Burrow's championship window. After overseeing the most extreme tight end funnel pass defense.. maybe ever, second-year DC Al Golden's seat is good and toasty.
Some teams that could fit your criteria: Buffalo, who are poised to roll out one of the youngest defenses in the league and lost Sean McDermott's influence on that side of the ball. Tampa Bay's collapse last year was 'led' by a defense that cratered down the stretch, then lost mainstays Lavonte David and Jamel Dean. Vita Vea likely won't succed in agitating his way out of town, but for now it's a risk. Detroit's perpetual Achilles heel has been their secondary, and with waiving Terrion Arnold and Brian Branch's Achilles rupture that song probably remains the same. Speaking of secondary woes, if the hamstring injury to Malik Mustapha costs him significant time, then San Francisco may have to hold open tryouts at safety. The 49ers also endured by far the weakest pass rush of any playoff team from a year ago and are counting on a major return to form from Nick Bosa.
Question 2
Love the site! Been using you guys for 20 years. I'm in a 12-man Keeper League: I should be able to grab one of Gibbs, Chase or JSN with the 1st pick, but I have a few keeper options to choose from: Keep Javonte Williams (lose 7th), Devonta Smith (7th) or potentially TreVeyon Henderson (4th). What do you think?
Pete Kelly (Evergreen Park, IL)
Glad to hear it Pete! Sounds like you have a major piece falling into your lap at the top of the draft, always a nice surprise in a keeper format. But having the 1.01 in the first place suggests last year wasn't your most fun season in this league — let's see about getting you a later pick for next year.
Not sure how many we're keeping here, so I'll comment on these guys in reverse order of preference. Just like last year, TreVeyon Henderson has a wide range of potential outcomes this fall. And like last year, that 4th round pick he's going to cost you to retain is too rich for my blood. New England's offense is more crowded than the Dunkin' across the street from Faneuil Hall.
I want to believe in Devonta Smith as a leading man, truly I do. I want to more readily believe that Jalen Hurts can scale up his pass volume effectively. But Hurts hasn't thrown for 3300 yards in two years, and Smith has one season over 1100 yards. The team is asking both of these guys to raise their game. They may be asking a little too much.
Reluctant as I was to embrace him a year ago, Javonte Williams with around a 3-round price break takes gold. He may not be especially exciting, but few backs enjoy a greater absence of competition for touches and the offense remains top tier. No need to overthink this one.
Question 3
In my PPR keeper league (10 team, SF, keep 7), I've got Egbuka. Thinking it might be good to hedge on him with McMillan or Godwin (not that excited about either individually) if the price during the draft is right (rookies & remaining vets mixed draft). Should I be looking at targeting these guys during the draft? And if so, when?
Dwight Dummer (Warren, OR)
Now we're getting into the nitty gritty, boys. A quick primer for those following along at home: This is a heavy keeper format where we are holding out something like the top 70 veterans (10 teams keeping 7 players apiece from previous season). This means that the top picks in their draft will skew hard toward rookies, but by the 2nd-3rd rounds veterans will begin flying off the board again.
Assuming your interest in McMillan truly is minimal, then I say zero in on Godwin. His early ADP is running several rounds ahead of McMillan's, but your heavy keeper format may push them a lot closer together. Godwin is obviously no Egbuka backup (he could lead the team in receptions) but were Egbuka to miss time then Godwin would stand alone at the top of the pecking order for a heavy target share run. The inverse is likely also true if (when?) Godwin hits the shelf, so I think approaching them as indirect handcuffs isn't overly reductive.
I'm a little concerned about what McMillan's playing time is going to look like in 2026. Health permitting, Egbuka and Godwin will push him out of the slot almost completely, and Egbuka is being tabbed as the offense's flanker (as much as those labels still mean anything). The fly in McMillan's ointment is that this team just lost Mike Evans, and that kind of big bodied, contested catch skillset can be tough to quit cold turkey. Jalen McMillan could pinch hit at the X some, but newcomer Ted Hurst looks to be a much more natural fit. When everyone's healthy, McMillan and Hurst's playing time looks to me to have a potential zero-sum relationship.
With an ADP currently hanging around the WR40, that would mean Godwin could be expected to come off the board in probably the 3rd-4th round of this draft. I'm fine with that price point: He has standalone value, he underwrites your Egbuka position and he's in an offense that could be pretty good. Makes good sense — great sense if you believe in a return to 2024 form for Mayfield.
Question 4
For keepers in my .5 PPR league, I have to choose between Q. Judkins (costs me my 13th rounder) or Tuten (16th). I am leaning towards Tuten but concerned about the committee possibility.
Russ Neis (Eagan, MN)
This one's actually tough. And for the reason most will expect: Judkins figures to enjoy greater volume in an offense we're less excited about, while Tuten still has to stake his claim in a backfield that could be highly productive. A tale as old as time.
For starters, we can probably skip any real pass-catching 'what ifs': Judkins has Dylan Sampson on hand for those duties and Tuten has LeQuint Allen. It may be overly reductive, but going in it looks like a wash on the PPR angle. Both running backs also have plausible paths to goal line work, as Tuten was relatively effective at converting in a smallish rookie sample size and Judkins is already an established pile pusher. Again, not a ton of daylight between them.
The real answer may just be: How long do you have left to decide? Because I'm leaning Judkins, and if I were you and I had time to let some more Chris Rodriguez blurbs roll in then I would. You won't know the whole story on the Jags' backfield between now and your keeper deadline, but you might have a better idea of which guy opens the season as the lead sled dog (my money still siding with Rodriguez there... for now). If Rodriguez's foot takes a turn for the worse next month, then it could be time to swing big on Tuten.
For what it's worth, our initial June rankings had Tuten as the RB21, Judkins at 26. But our first revised rankings just hit the streets, and already the sand has shifted. Might be worth snagging a copy to see how.
Question 5
Hi Luke. Enjoying your insights so far. I just got my cheat sheet and see that Cowboys receivers are ranked highly. My question is knowing this, why would Dak be QB16? Thanks!
Michael Hamer (Springfield, PA)
Well yeah, when you say it that way it sounds silly! But if we lay it all out then things start making sense fairly quickly. Even in what should be a prolific pass attack, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens should account for one of the higher percentages of their team's total WR production by a two-man crew in the league. They can eat just about the whole chicken. The Dallas running backs also figure to be one of the league's least productive pass catching groups.
With the quarterbacks, unless we have a guy that has active injury concerns (like Daniel Jones, who gets bounced from the top 20 altogether) then we tend to project them toward 16-17 games played. As a result, the projections can bunch together pretty tight: As you can see, the range between our current QB2 and QB16 is a whopping 20 fantasy points for the season. Prescott was a top 6 type of player last year, but that was made possible in part by good health. Five of the guys currently ahead of him missed more than three games in 2025.
The odds are good that Prescott returns strong per game production again in 2026, but with 5-plus missed games in 3 of his last 6 seasons, he's as likely as anybody to miss games himself. Add in that the rushing part of his game is gone and you start to see the case for Prescott inching down a bit (not a lot) even as Lamb and Pickens chug along.
Question 6
Hey, Luke - continue to appreciate the depth of your analysis and writing. Our league allows owners to keep a rookie for their 2nd season in the same draft round, then he returns to the player pool in year 3. As you might imagine, this causes top rookie players to be drafted earlier than projected in typical rankings. My question is how strong the lure of two years of cost-controlled access on rookies in our format should be, in general. Last year I took TreVeyon Henderson in the 3rd (too early in retrospect) and grabbed Tyler Warren in the 9th (great bargain this year). Every player and team situation is different, but is there a general rule that can be applied and used when preparing for the draft?
Chris George (McDonald, PA)
Thanks Chris! That's a pretty neat little mechanism you guys have.
My first thought is this is a system that would heavily incentivize taking rookie QBs. Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix all would have given you at least one season of top 10 per game production over their first two years, and while their rookie season ADPs certainly nosed up some their best seasons still beat it handily. Unfortunately, not all rookie classes are created equal. Mendoza is a decent enough bet for a Maye/Caleb arc, but it's a leap of faith — and one that takes up a precious roster spot for many moons, and probably with a price premium on top. Ty Simpson could be a fun (and cheap) insurance policy on Matt Stafford's cranky back, but this strategy is probably best saved for a '27 class billed as 'muy picoso'.
There are some rookies I'd go in on trying to jump the market to land. I'm buying what Jordyn Tyson is selling. If the Commanders manage to resist the siren calls of both Brandon Aiyuk and Stefon Diggs, then my Antonio Williams curiosity starts to burn out of control. And I'm in too deep on Oscar Delp to turn back for base camp now — either I make the summit or die on Mount Delp.
For this year's group I don't know that I want to build my hut to close to the ADP of many of the top names. Jeremiyah Love is going to have an egregious markup, passing on that. Carnell Tate, KC Concepcion, Omar Cooper: All very interesting, all facing long odds in year 1. And I have no time for whatever price Kenyon Sadiq and Eli Stowers are going to command, especially if you've got any Eagles fans mixed in with you Pittsburgh boys. High foolishness!
It's a tad on the boring side, but the best strategy could just be to let the other guys get distracted by the rookie hype and taking them off your board altogether, particularly in the early rounds. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were both good right away, but they also certainly commanded top 24 picks in your league as rookies. Those rookie seasons were great, but not the kind of wire-to-wire dominance we've since come to expect — locking them in as 2nd rounders for two years didn't generate difference-making ROI until year 2. And that ignores the possibility of a Marvin Harrison or Anthony Richardson-sized regret bomb going off in your rookie-crazed hands.
Take flyers on your Delps, your Bells (Skyler or Chris), your Allens (Kaytron or Braelon... once upon a time), and cross your fingers that you hit on the next Nacua or Bucky. Yeah, that's the ticket.
