I have heard the theory floated a few times over the last month that it can be a good thing to pick pass catchers from lesser teams. If a team is trailing often, the idea goes, it will be passing more, resulting in more catches, yards and touchdowns. It got me wondering if there’s any truth in the notion.
There are different ways to look at this. One way (which I won’t do right now) would be to look at all 8-8 teams of the last 20 years. Look at the stats from winning and losing games and measure which was greater. I might run those numbers at some point.
We could also look at wide receivers finishing with top-10 numbers, then look at how many came from teams with losing records. Last year, there were three: Calvin Ridley (Falcons went 4-12), Justin Jefferson (7-9) and Adam Thielen (7-9).
But for now, I’m going to look at the correlation between passing production and win-loss records. That is, you look at the teams putting up the best passing stats each year, then look at how many games that team won. If we’re expecting teams like the Texans and Lions (and to a lesser degree, Falcons, Saints, Broncos, Jets) to be bad, then how many teams like that show up among the passing production leaders?
Below see the top 100 passing teams of the last 10 years. That represents almost a third of all teams (100 out of 320). And I’m ranking them by fantasy production using PPR scoring (1 point per catch, 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 points for TDs).
Of these 100 teams, 13 finished with fewer than 6 wins. That’s about one team per year, and all of those teams finished at either 4-12 or 5-11. (So no teams way down in the 3-13 or 2-14 hole.) I’ve got those bad teams in bold.
Another 19 teams finished with losing records but weren’t truly awful. These teams (about two per season) all finished with 6-7 wins. These teams are tagged with black dots.
The remaining 68 teams (just over two thirds) finished 8-8 or better.
Note that of the seven teams in the top 20 that finished with losing records, all come from the NFC South, with the New Orleans Saints leading the way, showing up four times. They almost shouldn’t count, with them having Sean Payton, Drew Brees and one of the most innovative offenses in football (they don’t fit the profile of being a prolific passing team because they’re behind, methinks).
Anyway, numbers are below. Mull them over and let me know what you think in the comments section.
On the list, by the way, I went not with the top 10 teams from each season (though maybe I should have, to better account for stat inflation) but simply the highest-producing passing teams (I haven’t totaled up the numbers for each season, but I’m sure there are some years where there are more than 10 teams and some where there are fewer).
| TOP 100 PASSING TEAMS OF LAST 10 YEARS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR |
| 2013 | Denver | 13-3 | 461 | 5,572 | 55 | 1348.2 |
| 2011 | New Orleans | 13-3 | 472 | 5,505 | 46 | 1298.5 |
| 2016 | • New Orleans | 7-9 | 472 | 5,258 | 38 | 1225.8 |
| 2012 | • New Orleans | 7-9 | 423 | 5,187 | 43 | 1199.7 |
| 2011 | Green Bay | 15-1 | 376 | 5,161 | 51 | 1198.1 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 12-4 | 385 | 5,126 | 50 | 1197.6 |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 11-5 | 446 | 5,162 | 39 | 1196.2 |
| 2018 | Pittsburgh | 9-6-1 | 459 | 5,174 | 35 | 1186.4 |
| 2011 | Detroit | 10-6 | 423 | 5,071 | 41 | 1176.1 |
| 2015 | • New Orleans | 7-9 | 460 | 5,205 | 32 | 1172.5 |
| 2011 | New England | 13-3 | 402 | 5,257 | 39 | 1161.7 |
| 2020 | Kansas City | 14-2 | 420 | 5,005 | 40 | 1160.5 |
| 2018 | Tampa Bay | 5-11 | 408 | 5,358 | 36 | 1159.8 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis | 11-5 | 410 | 4,894 | 42 | 1151.4 |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | 11-5 | 410 | 4,776 | 42 | 1139.6 |
| 2018 | • Atlanta | 7-9 | 428 | 4,949 | 36 | 1138.9 |
| 2019 | • Atlanta | 7-9 | 459 | 5,049 | 29 | 1137.9 |
| 2014 | • New Orleans | 7-9 | 456 | 4,764 | 33 | 1130.4 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | 13-3 | 410 | 4,786 | 40 | 1128.6 |
| 2018 | Indianapolis | 10-6 | 432 | 4,595 | 39 | 1125.5 |
| 2015 | San Diego | 4-12 | 442 | 4,855 | 30 | 1107.5 |
| 2012 | Dallas | 8-8 | 434 | 4,992 | 29 | 1107.2 |
| 2014 | Denver | 12-4 | 399 | 4,661 | 40 | 1105.1 |
| 2015 | New England | 12-4 | 404 | 4,812 | 36 | 1101.2 |
| 2016 | Atlanta | 11-5 | 374 | 4,960 | 38 | 1098.0 |
| 2019 | • Tampa Bay | 7-9 | 382 | 5,127 | 33 | 1092.7 |
| 2014 | Pittsburgh | 11-5 | 411 | 4,825 | 33 | 1091.5 |
| 2012 | Denver | 13-3 | 402 | 4,671 | 37 | 1091.1 |
| 2012 | Detroit | 4-12 | 445 | 5,139 | 22 | 1090.9 |
| 2012 | New England | 12-4 | 402 | 4,844 | 34 | 1090.4 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 13-3 | 372 | 4,299 | 48 | 1089.9 |
| 2016 | Green Bay | 10-6 | 403 | 4,445 | 40 | 1087.5 |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 13-3 | 422 | 4,719 | 32 | 1085.9 |
| 2019 | New Orleans | 13-3 | 418 | 4,431 | 36 | 1077.1 |
| 2020 | Houston | 4-12 | 383 | 4,843 | 33 | 1065.3 |
| 2015 | • Detroit | 7-9 | 420 | 4,463 | 33 | 1064.3 |
| 2019 | Dallas | 8-8 | 388 | 4,902 | 30 | 1058.2 |
| 2015 | • NY Giants | 6-10 | 392 | 4,500 | 36 | 1058.0 |
| 2013 | Atlanta | 4-12 | 445 | 4,541 | 26 | 1055.1 |
| 2020 | • LA Chargers | 7-9 | 413 | 4,548 | 31 | 1053.8 |
| 2020 | Seattle | 12-4 | 388 | 4,245 | 40 | 1052.5 |
| 2016 | Washington | 8-7-1 | 407 | 4,948 | 25 | 1051.8 |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh | 12-4 | 428 | 4,129 | 35 | 1050.9 |
| 2018 | Philadelphia | 9-7 | 422 | 4,524 | 29 | 1048.4 |
| 2012 | Green Bay | 11-5 | 374 | 4,342 | 40 | 1048.2 |
| 2017 | New England | 13-3 | 389 | 4,619 | 32 | 1042.9 |
| 2014 | • Atlanta | 6-10 | 418 | 4,553 | 28 | 1041.3 |
| 2015 | Arizona | 13-3 | 353 | 4,775 | 35 | 1040.5 |
| 2018 | Minnesota | 8-7-1 | 425 | 4,298 | 30 | 1034.8 |
| 2018 | LA Rams | 13-3 | 368 | 4,730 | 32 | 1033.0 |
| 2020 | Atlanta | 4-12 | 408 | 4,620 | 27 | 1032.0 |
| 2015 | Pittsburgh | 10-6 | 391 | 4,822 | 26 | 1029.2 |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 12-4 | 378 | 4,690 | 30 | 1027.0 |
| 2011 | NY Giants | 9-7 | 359 | 4,933 | 29 | 1026.3 |
| 2011 | Dallas | 8-8 | 376 | 4,453 | 33 | 1019.3 |
| 2013 | San Diego | 9-7 | 378 | 4,478 | 32 | 1017.8 |
| 2016 | Pittsburgh | 11-5 | 381 | 4,377 | 33 | 1016.7 |
| 2020 | • Dallas | 6-10 | 413 | 4,511 | 25 | 1014.1 |
| 2017 | Pittsburgh | 13-3 | 384 | 4,534 | 29 | 1011.4 |
| 2016 | Indianapolis | 8-8 | 370 | 4,491 | 32 | 1011.1 |
| 2013 | Chicago | 8-8 | 373 | 4,450 | 32 | 1010.0 |
| 2013 | • Detroit | 7-9 | 371 | 4,650 | 29 | 1010.0 |
| 2014 | New England | 12-4 | 392 | 4,121 | 34 | 1008.1 |
| 2015 | Jacksonville | 5-11 | 355 | 4,428 | 35 | 1007.8 |
| 2016 | New England | 14-2 | 368 | 4,456 | 32 | 1005.6 |
| 2018 | • Green Bay | 6-9-1 | 392 | 4,629 | 25 | 1004.9 |
| 2014 | Green Bay | 12-4 | 349 | 4,261 | 38 | 1003.1 |
| 2019 | LA Chargers | 5-11 | 394 | 4,648 | 24 | 1002.8 |
| 2015 | Baltimore | 5-11 | 426 | 4,449 | 21 | 996.9 |
| 2018 | New Orleans | 13-3 | 381 | 4,174 | 33 | 996.4 |
| 2015 | Atlanta | 8-8 | 410 | 4,602 | 21 | 996.2 |
| 2019 | LA Rams | 9-7 | 397 | 4,669 | 22 | 995.9 |
| 2013 | Dallas | 8-8 | 375 | 4,226 | 33 | 995.6 |
| 2015 | Washington | 9-7 | 386 | 4,294 | 30 | 995.4 |
| 2017 | Detroit | 9-7 | 374 | 4,470 | 29 | 995.0 |
| 2017 | Tampa Bay | 5-11 | 378 | 4,607 | 26 | 994.7 |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 11-5 | 364 | 4,321 | 33 | 994.1 |
| 2016 | • Arizona | 7-8-1 | 383 | 4,425 | 28 | 993.5 |
| 2016 | Baltimore | 8-8 | 439 | 4,343 | 20 | 993.3 |
| 2018 | New England | 11-5 | 378 | 4,405 | 29 | 992.5 |
| 2011 | San Diego | 8-8 | 366 | 4,624 | 27 | 990.4 |
| 2014 | • NY Giants | 6-10 | 383 | 4,272 | 30 | 990.2 |
| 2015 | • Oakland | 7-9 | 373 | 4,129 | 34 | 989.9 |
| 2017 | LA Chargers | 9-7 | 366 | 4,551 | 28 | 989.1 |
| 2016 | San Diego | 5-11 | 349 | 4,386 | 33 | 985.6 |
| 2020 | • Minnesota | 7-9 | 349 | 4,265 | 35 | 985.5 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 10-6 | 384 | 4,356 | 27 | 981.6 |
| 2015 | • Philadelphia | 7-9 | 405 | 4,341 | 23 | 977.1 |
| 2015 | NY Jets | 10-6 | 362 | 4,170 | 33 | 977.0 |
| 2014 | San Diego | 9-7 | 380 | 4,098 | 31 | 975.8 |
| 2020 | Detroit | 5-11 | 374 | 4,397 | 27 | 975.7 |
| 2013 | Pittsburgh | 8-8 | 377 | 4,306 | 28 | 975.6 |
| 2011 | Atlanta | 10-6 | 365 | 4,365 | 29 | 975.5 |
| 2020 | Las Vegas | 8-8 | 369 | 4,383 | 28 | 975.3 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | 4-12 | 379 | 4,372 | 26 | 972.2 |
| 2018 | LA Chargers | 12-4 | 348 | 4,316 | 32 | 971.6 |
| 2013 | Green Bay | 8-7-1 | 366 | 4,538 | 25 | 969.8 |
| 2016 | Oakland | 12-4 | 379 | 4,137 | 29 | 966.7 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 13-3 | 341 | 3,967 | 38 | 965.7 |
| 2016 | Detroit | 9-7 | 388 | 4,327 | 24 | 964.7 |
—Ian Allan