I’m not going to make you read the entire column for the answer to that question. It’s yes. You can win your league with players on losing teams. But that’s not really the end of the conversation.
Still reading? Cool. Let’s dive in a little deeper and I’ll show you what I mean.
Last year, eight receivers (I’m counting Kelce here) caught at least 100 passes, but only one of them (Keenan Allen) played for a team with a losing record. Eight running backs eclipsed 1,000 yards, but only James Robinson played for a sub-.500 team. So, at first glance, it looks like better teams tend to produce guys with good stats.
It’s not crystal clear, however. A bunch of those teams were 8-8 (in a 17-game season they might have been 8-9). And Keenan Allen’s Chargers were 7-9 and looking pretty good with Justin Herbert at quarterback. Can we really say the 8-8 teams were “good” enough to support the hypothesis?
There’s more information to consider. Of the 12 quarterbacks with at least 4,000 yards passing, nearly half of them (that’s five) came from teams with losing records. So how much does the team’s record really matter?
Another indicator might be consistency. Of the 14 playoff teams last year, only Chicago (8-8) and Washington (7-9) didn’t have consistency at quarterback. And both of those teams had clear-cut #1 receivers and running backs. The teams who had a carousel of quarterbacks or running backs didn’t fare as well as the better teams. And while clubs like Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Baltimore had committees at running back, they weren’t burning through names to find the right guy. They had talent they liked using at different times. That’s different than looking for a new flavor of the week.
Many of the really good teams last year (division winners not counting Washington) still have quite a few names who will be called early on draft day this year: Seattle, New Orleans, Green Bay, Tennessee, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Kansas City. But the teams who are expected to be pretty bad (Jets, Lions, Texans without Watson) don’t have many names with top stats and probably won’t be taken until much later in the evening. Watson and Matthew Stafford both passed for 4,000 yards last year, but Stafford is in Los Angeles and Watson is in limbo. James Robinson stands out as a guy on a really bad team who put up solid fantasy numbers in 2020, but they’re rare. And Robinson didn’t have to compete against Travis Etienne last year.
I don’t think you should waste your time looking for another 2020 Robinson. You can certainly build a winning fantasy franchise with guys on losing teams, but those “losing teams” need to be 8-9 or so. In general, the really bad ones don’t offer much. They aren’t consistent, they rotate starters and they’re playing out the string when you need them most. With 17 games in the season, and seven playoff spots per conference, a .500-ish team can be in the playoff hunt all the way to the end. That’s not so good for the quality of the playoffs, but I think it’s great for fantasy football.
I think many championship rosters will have some players from Super Bowl contenders, and a bunch of guys on bubble teams who will finish 8-9, 9-8 or 10-7. But I’m staying away from Lions and Jets until very late in my drafts. If that means I miss out on Corey Davis, Michael Carter and D’Andre Swift, so be it. And I normally draft tight ends very late, so I have little chance at Hockenson, who might be the one Lion I actually like as a fantasy player.
I have some friends who would rather have a player lower on the depth chart from a great team than a starter on a bad team. They speculate that the starter won’t be a starter for long once the losses pile up, while the other guy might get more chances as part of a better offense. Other people I know seek out those gems on bad teams, looking to ride garbage-time volume to fantasy success.
I prefer to scour the middle-of-the-pack teams that are just good enough to stay in the playoff hunt, but not good enough to consider easing up. Whatever your strategy, I hope it works for you.
Do you shy away from bad teams, or do you ignore the team’s prospects and focus only on the player? Are you more comfortable with guys from the best teams in the league? Share your thoughts below.