All preseason there's been speculation that Sony Michel would be gone from the Patriots roster before the season. Now it's official: he's been traded to the Los Angeles Rams for a couple of conditional late-round picks. Here's what it means for the involved players and teams.
Darrell Henderson. Henderson is the guy most negatively affected by this. Obviously. I drafted him (5.08) in an experts draft just last week, and sort of need him as a starter, so this is not great news. But: I don't think it's completely death to his value. Here's why.
Henderson picked up a thumb injury in practice this week, a reminder that keeping him healthy was always a concern. He's a smaller back that they were never going to give 20-plus touches per game. And if you've watched either of the Rams preseason games, and seen seventh-rounder Jake Funk and second-year back Xavier Jones, perhaps you've seen what I have: those guys are backup running backs, period. Jones has some speed and receiving ability to be a change of pace in the passing game. Funk will run hard and break a tackle here and there, but he looks like a college back. So the Rams were definitely going to add another back, because neither of those youngsters was going to be viable if needed to start a game. I thought they might look at other teams' cuts; instead they jumped the gun and traded to secure a back that might be cut.
Sony Michel. Michel will not be a factor in the passing game. The Patriots gave him some chances as a receiver in the past and the results weren't promising. All of that work will still be Henderson's, and I also think Henderson will remain the lead back and play more. But Michel will be an early-down runner who maybe plays 30 percent of the time, including near the goal line. He's a better version of Malcolm Brown, who last year rushed 101 times for 419 yards and 5 TDs, mostly in the first half of the year, before Cam Akers emerged. That's the starting point I'd be looking at from Michel, and if we figure he's in that role all year, maybe his ceiling is 700-800 yards and 8 TDs.
Henderson goes from being a possible 1,000-yard rusher to maybe 700 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards (last year the team's receiving backs combined for 450ish) and 7-8 total touchdowns. If healthy. He was the 18th PPR running back in our latest update. I think this drives him down 5-6 spots, roughly Mike Davis and the Denver running backs area. Michel in my mind is Gus Edwards area or a little higher. Some will like Michel more than that and believe he'll swoop in and be the starter. I'm not one of them.
Damien Harris. This helps Harris primarily in removing the threat that Bill Belichick decided out of nowhere to make Michel his lead running back for a game or two. I haven't thought Michel would be on the team anyway, so it doesn't move him very much for me, but at least it eliminates that possibility. Harris gets a slight boost in the running back rankings, but I don't think this changes much for him.
Rhamondre Stevenson. Now the change-0f-pace runner will definitely be impressive rookie Stevenson, but that's what we were figuring anyway. He moves up because he definitely gets all of the No. 2 running back work, and he's a Harris injury from moving into the starting lineup.
J.J. Taylor will now make the team, but is still blocked by James White and the other backs. Jake Funk and Xavier Jones have no value.
One thing that makes this particular deal especially significant is the teams involved. There are a lot of rushing touchdowns to be had on the two teams, based on recent performance. Over the past three seasons, only the Saints and Ravens have more rushing touchdowns than the Rams. (Only those teams, the Titans and Panthers have more than New England.) In those three seasons combined, the Rams and Patriots have both scored more than 45 percent of their touchdowns on runs. That's more than every team but the Panthers.
| TEAM RUSHING TDS, 2018-2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 18 | 19 | 20 | Tot | Run% |
| Carolina | 17 | 20 | 19 | 56 | 47.9 |
| LA Rams | 23 | 20 | 19 | 62 | 45.6 |
| New England | 18 | 17 | 20 | 55 | 45.5 |
| Arizona | 9 | 18 | 22 | 49 | 44.1 |
| Tennessee | 15 | 21 | 26 | 62 | 44.0 |
| Baltimore | 19 | 21 | 24 | 64 | 43.8 |
| Washington | 12 | 9 | 18 | 39 | 43.8 |
| Denver | 18 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 42.9 |
| New Orleans | 26 | 12 | 30 | 68 | 41.2 |
| Cleveland | 15 | 15 | 21 | 51 | 39.5 |
| San Francisco | 7 | 23 | 19 | 49 | 38.3 |
| Las Vegas | 9 | 13 | 20 | 42 | 37.8 |
| Indianapolis | 13 | 17 | 20 | 50 | 37.0 |
| Buffalo | 15 | 13 | 16 | 44 | 37.0 |
| Dallas | 13 | 18 | 14 | 45 | 36.9 |
| NY Giants | 13 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 36.3 |
| Philadelphia | 12 | 16 | 16 | 44 | 35.8 |
| Cincinnati | 13 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 35.4 |
| Minnesota | 9 | 19 | 20 | 48 | 34.5 |
| NY Jets | 11 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 32.9 |
| Chicago | 16 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 32.7 |
| Green Bay | 14 | 18 | 16 | 48 | 32.7 |
| LA Chargers | 16 | 12 | 12 | 40 | 31.5 |
| Detroit | 11 | 7 | 17 | 35 | 31.3 |
| Houston | 12 | 17 | 10 | 39 | 31.2 |
| Miami | 7 | 10 | 15 | 32 | 30.8 |
| Seattle | 15 | 15 | 15 | 45 | 29.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 16 | 7 | 12 | 35 | 28.5 |
| Kansas City | 16 | 16 | 13 | 45 | 27.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 15 | 16 | 42 | 27.3 |
| Atlanta | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34 | 27.0 |
| Jacksonville | 7 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 22.9 |
--Andy Richardson