It's cutdown day in the NFL, which means there will be lots of youngsters and veterans suddenly unemployed. One of the (not unexpected) ones I saw this morning was Washington releasing veteran running back Peyton Barber; previously they'd cut Lamar Miller. That leaves them with just Jonathan Williams (who might also be cut today) behind Antonio Gibson, and undrafted rookie Jaret Patterson.

Washington also has J.D. McKissic, but he's basically James White -- passing downs only. If Gibson misses time due to injury, McKissic isn't going to move into a featured runner role. That looks like Patterson, which gives him the potential to be one of the success stories among undrafted rookie running backs this season.

I wondered what the odds of rookie success are for lightly-regarded running backs -- either Day 3 picks (rounds 4-7) or undrafted guys like Patterson. Here are the results from the last 10 years.

From the last decade, there have been a little over 200 late-drafted (rounds 4-7) or undrafted running backs to make it into our comprehensive files, on average about 22 per year.

Of those players, 13 finished their first season ranked in the top 30 at the position; 1.3 per year. Nineteen more made it into the top 50; should be rostered in typical leagues, and managed some usable production along the way. Collectively, you're looking at about 3 viable late-round or undrafted rookie running backs per season. Three of them made it into the top 10 at the position in the last decade, James Robinson most recently. About a third of those running backs (9 of 32) were undrafted -- better odds, interestingly, of an undrafted guy making an impact than a 5th, 6th, or 7th-round pick.

DAY 3/UNDRAFTED RUNNING BACKS, 2011-2020 (TOP-50)
RdYearPlayerRunNoRecTDPPRRk
U2020James Robinson, Jac.10704934410252.47
62012Alfred Morris, Was.1613117713258.07
52016Jordan Howard, Chi.1313292987232.110
U2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.10373524110222.813
52013Zac Stacy, St.L.973261418185.421
42011Roy Helu, Was.640493793168.925
U2014Branden Oliver, S.D.582362714145.326
62013Andre Ellington, Ariz.652393714165.326
42014Andre Williams, NYG721181307145.127
42017Tarik Cohen, Chi.370533534154.428
42016Devontae Booker, Den.612312655148.729
42015Javorius Allen, Balt.514453533149.729
42015Jeremy Langford, Chi.537222797147.630
U2014Isaiah Crowell, Cle.6079878126.433
52012Vick Ballard, Ind.814171523131.633
42017Jamaal Williams, G.B.556252626142.834
U2015Thomas Rawls, Sea.8309765129.637
U2016Robert Kelley, Was.70412827132.638
52015Karlos Williams, Buff.51711969126.338
U2016Jalen Richard, Oak.491291943115.542
42017Samaje Perine, Was.603221822112.543
72012Bryce Brown, Phil.5641356499.043
U2017Austin Ekeler, LAC260272795110.944
42011Kendall Hunter, S.F.47316195294.845
42017Wayne Gallman, NYG476341931106.946
62014Alfred Blue, Hou.52815113397.146
72012Daryl Richardson, St.L.47524163089.846
U2017Matt Breida, S.F.465211803103.547
42016Kenneth Dixon, Balt.382301623102.447
42017Marlon Mack, Ind.358212254103.348
42014Devonta Freeman, Atl.24830225289.349
42018Ito Smith, Atl.31527152497.750

Washington has been a nice landing spot for such players. Four late-drafted or undrafted Washington rookie running backs have made it into the top 50 at their position from the last decade: Alfred Morris, Roy Helu, Robert Kelley (also undrafted) and Samaje Perine. Maybe Patterson will be the fifth.

Patterson is small (5-8, 195), but solidly built and heavily muscled, as the picture makes clear. Optimistic to imagine he'll be the next Maurice Jones-Drew or anything, but in a position where he could get some work in this backfield early on.

--Andy Richardson