Story over the weekend speculating that Texans third-rounder Nico Collins will make an early impact. On his behalf, Houston doesn't have much else behind Brandin Cooks at wide receiver, just Collins and Chris Conley (the team cut Keke Coutee). On the other hand, this is the Texans after all.
Houston looks like the league's worst team, probably its worst-run team too. They're talking about using tight ends in the slot (and that position group doesn't look good either). Collins seems like a decent bet to start right away, but he's catching passes from Tyrod Taylor. Houston will be playing from behind plenty, but best to keep expectations for the passing game, and Collins, low.
While third-round wideouts can certainly emerge as good players, it doesn't typically happen right away. Over the past 20 years, there have been just four who ranked in the top 30 at the position in their rookie seasons. Two of those have been in the last five years (Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin). But far more likely they wind up outside the 50 wide receivers in their first seasons.
Table below shows all the third-round wideouts who ranked in the top 100 (PPR) at the position over the last 20 years. A total of 31 players, so 1.5 per year. Just eight finished in the top 50.
| 3RD-ROUND WRS, ROOKIE SEASONS, 2001-PRESENT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 105 | 71 | 1046 | 14.7 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
| 2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 94 | 62 | 869 | 14.0 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 90 | 50 | 861 | 17.2 | 7 | 187.0 | 28 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 93 | 58 | 919 | 15.8 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
| 2009 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 72 | 39 | 756 | 19.4 | 6 | 155.4 | 36 |
| 2019 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 92 | 59 | 680 | 11.5 | 5 | 167.1 | 39 |
| 2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 51 | 664 | 13.0 | 6 | 167.4 | 41 |
| 2013 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 74 | 44 | 736 | 16.7 | 5 | 150.0 | 45 |
| 2014 | John Brown, Ariz. | 102 | 48 | 696 | 14.5 | 5 | 147.0 | 53 |
| 2010 | Jordan Shipley, Cin. | 74 | 52 | 600 | 11.5 | 3 | 130.0 | 54 |
| 2007 | James Jones, G.B. | 80 | 47 | 676 | 14.4 | 2 | 126.6 | 59 |
| 2005 | Chris Henry, Cin. | 50 | 31 | 422 | 13.6 | 6 | 109.2 | 59 |
| 2017 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | 48 | 28 | 477 | 17.0 | 3 | 94.6 | 70 |
| 2017 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 55 | 34 | 525 | 15.4 | 1 | 92.5 | 72 |
| 2018 | TreQuan Smith, N.O. | 44 | 28 | 427 | 15.3 | 5 | 100.7 | 73 |
| 2010 | Brandon LaFell, Car. | 77 | 38 | 468 | 12.3 | 1 | 96.8 | 76 |
| 2018 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | 68 | 33 | 507 | 15.4 | 2 | 97.7 | 78 |
| 2007 | Laurent Robinson, Atl. | 74 | 37 | 437 | 11.8 | 1 | 86.7 | 78 |
| 2014 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 49 | 32 | 444 | 13.9 | 3 | 96.1 | 79 |
| 2003 | Nate Burleson, Min. | 57 | 29 | 455 | 15.7 | 2 | 86.5 | 80 |
| 2008 | Harry Douglas, Atl. | 39 | 23 | 320 | 13.9 | 1 | 79.9 | 81 |
| 2003 | Kelley Washington, Cin. | 47 | 22 | 299 | 13.6 | 4 | 76.4 | 84 |
| 2010 | Emmanuel Sanders, Pitt. | 50 | 28 | 376 | 13.4 | 2 | 77.6 | 87 |
| 2012 | T.J. Graham, Buff. | 58 | 31 | 322 | 10.4 | 1 | 69.7 | 88 |
| 2010 | Andre Roberts, Ariz. | 49 | 24 | 307 | 12.8 | 2 | 66.7 | 90 |
| 2001 | Steve Smith Sr., Car. | 20 | 10 | 154 | 15.4 | 0 | 47.7 | 93 |
| 2005 | Brandon Jones, Ten. | 47 | 23 | 299 | 13.0 | 2 | 65.0 | 94 |
| 2012 | Mohamed Sanu, Cin. | 25 | 16 | 154 | 9.6 | 4 | 64.6 | 96 |
| 2005 | Courtney Roby, Ten. | 43 | 21 | 289 | 13.8 | 1 | 57.5 | 97 |
| 2011 | Vincent Brown, S.D. | 40 | 19 | 329 | 17.3 | 2 | 63.9 | 98 |
| 2013 | Marquise Goodwin, Buff. | 32 | 17 | 283 | 16.7 | 3 | 64.6 | 100 |
Sometimes when everyone is piling on a bad team, they end up with a surprisingly productive player. James Robinson in Jacksonville last year leaps to mind. Maybe Collins will be one of those players. But not anything more than a last-round flier, I think.
--Andy Richardson