A year in, it looks like teams are going to set all-time records for passing production – even before starting the new 17th game for each team.
We’re over a quarter of the way into the season, and teams are averaging 264 passing yards per game. That used to put you among the league leaders. Now it’s just average. Tom Brady is sitting at a league-high 353 yards per game.
And teams are averaging 1.70 touchdown passes per game. That gets you to 27.2 for 16 games and close to 29 for the new 17-week season. Again – that’s the average. We’re going to see a fair group of quarterbacks go over 40 touchdowns.
For fantasy purposes, it used to be if you could get a quarterback who would average 2 TDs per week, that was a very good thing. Nowadays, you need to get to 2 TDs in any given week just to feel like you’re holding serve. It’s really more of a battle to find the quarterbacks who are going to put up 3-4-5 touchdowns.
When numbers were up last year, I thought it might be connected to teams playing in empty stadiums. But that’s not the case. This is just what the game is now.
Since the start of the 32-team era (in 2002) production, teams are averaging about 50 more passing yards per game, and with touchdowns rising by about 20 percent.
| PASSING PRODUCTION BY YEAR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Yards | TDP | F Pts |
| 2002 | 227 | 1.36 | 30.8 |
| 2003 | 214 | 1.28 | 29.0 |
| 2004 | 225 | 1.43 | 31.1 |
| 2005 | 218 | 1.26 | 29.4 |
| 2006 | 219 | 1.27 | 29.5 |
| 2007 | 228 | 1.41 | 31.3 |
| 2008 | 224 | 1.26 | 30.0 |
| 2009 | 232 | 1.39 | 31.5 |
| 2010 | 236 | 1.47 | 32.4 |
| 2011 | 245 | 1.46 | 33.2 |
| 2012 | 246 | 1.48 | 33.5 |
| 2013 | 252 | 1.57 | 34.7 |
| 2014 | 237 | 1.58 | 33.1 |
| 2015 | 259 | 1.64 | 35.8 |
| 2016 | 256 | 1.54 | 34.8 |
| 2017 | 240 | 1.45 | 32.6 |
| 2018 | 254 | 1.65 | 35.4 |
| 2019 | 252 | 1.56 | 34.5 |
| 2020 | 255 | 1.70 | 35.7 |
| 2021 | 264 | 1.70 | 36.6 |
Rushing production, on the other hand, has held pretty constant all along. Teams thus far are averaging 112 rushing yards, with almost a touchdown per game.
There are a few exception teams (with the Browns and Titans leading the way) but it’s a passing game now.
| RUSHING PRODUCTION BY YEAR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Yards | TDR | F Pts |
| 2002 | 116 | .90 | 17.0 |
| 2003 | 118 | .83 | 16.8 |
| 2004 | 117 | .81 | 16.5 |
| 2005 | 112 | .84 | 16.3 |
| 2006 | 117 | .83 | 16.7 |
| 2007 | 111 | .75 | 15.6 |
| 2008 | 116 | .93 | 17.2 |
| 2009 | 117 | .84 | 16.7 |
| 2010 | 114 | .78 | 16.1 |
| 2011 | 117 | .78 | 16.4 |
| 2012 | 116 | .78 | 16.3 |
| 2013 | 113 | .80 | 16.1 |
| 2014 | 111 | .74 | 15.6 |
| 2015 | 109 | .71 | 15.2 |
| 2016 | 109 | .87 | 16.1 |
| 2017 | 110 | .74 | 15.4 |
| 2018 | 114 | .86 | 16.6 |
| 2019 | 113 | .87 | 16.5 |
| 2020 | 119 | 1.04 | 18.1 |
| 2021 | 112 | .94 | 16.9 |
—Ian Allan