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Factoid

Jon Gruden

Las Vegas offense should miss its play caller

Jon Gruden is gone, and that will have an adverse effect on the offense of the Raiders. Football is a mental game, and he was the most important decision maker on that franchise. While he didn’t step on the field, he was reasonable for most of the key decisions – drawing up game plans and calling plays.

We seen other teams lose offensive minds in the past, and the results have been notable. The Titans this year, for example, seem to be missing Arthur Smith. Frank Reich’s departure from Philadelphia probably played a big role in that offense declining after that team’s Super Bowl win. The Saints took a step back when Sean Payton was suspended in 2012, and the Falcons cratered after losing offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

Greg Olson (the coach, not the retired tight end) now becomes the key decision maker for the Raiders. He’s the offensive coordinator, and he’ll be doing a lot more now than he did when Gruden was around. His resume indicates that expectations should be modest.

Olson previously has had control of nine NFL offenses. That is, nine times he’s been a coordinator for teams that had defensive head coaches. (He’s also been a coordinator under head coaches with offensive backgrounds, but I’m leaving those out – since those head coaches were usually calling plays and had more say in decision making.)

Of Olson’s nine previous offenses, all but two ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring. Olson’s best season came in 2015 with Jacksonville, which ranked 14th in scoring. Olson’s Tampa Bay offense ranked 20th in scoring – that was his only other one not in the bottom 10.

Olson hasn’t worked with a lot of good teams. Those 2010 Bucs went 10-6. None of his other teams went better than 6-10. Two thirds of his teams won either 3 or 4 games.

GREG OLSON OFFENSES (scoring)
YearTeamWinPointsPer GRk
2004Detroit6-1029618.524
2005Detroit5-1125415.928
2009Tampa Bay3-1324415.330
2010Tampa Bay10-634121.320
2011Tampa Bay4-1228717.927
2013Oakland4-1232220.124
2014Oakland3-1325315.831
2015Jacksonville5-1137623.514
2016Jacksonville3-1331819.925

The Raiders aren’t running the ball right now, and on that front, Olson doesn’t look likely to turn things around. Of his previous nine offenses, all but two ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing production. And by “rank” here, I’m using a combination of yards and touchdowns (6 points for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).

GREG OLSON OFFENSES (rushing)
YearTeamYd/GYd/AttTDPointsRk
2004Detroit111.14.47219.725
2005Detroit91.93.610207.123
2009Tampa Bay101.74.05192.731
2010Tampa Bay125.14.69254.113
2011Tampa Bay91.14.29199.830
2013Oakland125.04.616296.010
2014Oakland77.53.74148.032
2015Jacksonville92.14.25177.330
2016Jacksonville101.94.28211.125

Olson’s offenses have put up slightly better passing stats. But not great. He’s been connected with only one offense that finished with above-average overall production (again, blending yards and TDs using fantasy scoring). Olson was the coordinator for the Jaguars when they somehow got 35 TD passes out of Blake Bortles. Five of Olson’s offenses finished with bottom-10 passing numbers, and the other 3 were below average.

GREG OLSON OFFENSES (passing)
YearTeamPctYd/GTDIntPointsRk
2004Detroit56.4%195.31913426.425
2005Detroit57.1%188.81518392.128
2009Tampa Bay53.2%195.91829421.425
2010Tampa Bay61.9%222.8266512.417
2011Tampa Bay62.1%239.91724485.820
2013Oakland57.4%226.81720464.928
2014Oakland58.0%204.72216459.524
2015Jacksonville58.5%276.83518652.86
2016Jacksonville58.9%245.32416536.517

The Raiders are on the ropes right now, having gotten locked down pretty good by the Chargers in a Monday night game, then falling flat against the Bears on Sunday. Derek Carr (pictured) passed for more than 380 yards in each of his first three games, but he’s sputtered in his last two. To me, I don’t see Carr and this offense getting back to the kind of elite numbers we were seeing in those first three weeks.

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index