CINCINNATI (at Baltimore)
The Bengals are hanging with the big boys this year, playing overtime games against respectable teams (Packers and Vikings) and manhandling a lesser one (Lions) last week. Here's a bigger test: on the road ...
... against a division rival that's destroyed them in three straight meetings. But Joe Burrow was around for only one of those games; it's a better Cincinnati offense now. Baltimore's defense, though, was awfully impressive shutting down the Chargers last week. Cincinnati should be more competitive than in the recent past, but definitely a below-average situation for the offense here. ... Baltimore's defense has been ...
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... up-and-down against the pass. Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz all threw for 340-plus, and with multiple touchdowns. But Justin Herbert just had his worst game all year, throwing for 195 yards and a touchdown, with 2 sacks and 2 interceptions. So a wide range of possible outcomes for Joe Burrow, who's earned a place in the discussion with those quarterbacks. He's averaging 257 passing yards (even while probably slowed early on while coming back from a torn ACL), while throwing 2-3 TDs in every game -- one of two passers (Mahomes) to do that this season. But something toward the lower end of those possibilities seems reasonable, considering what this defense did to Herbert, and also against Burrow last season (183 yards and an interception in Cincinnati's 27-3 loss at Baltimore). The Ravens have 14 sacks (9th), while Burrow has taken 16, so he'll definitely be dealing with some pressure. Upgraded personnel in some areas, but production won't come easy this week. ... JaMarr Chase is the biggest upgrade, and he's been great, averaging 92 yards per game and catching 5 TDs. But a case can be made for dropping him behind some lesser players, given the way opposing No. 1s have fared in this matchup.
| No. 1 WRs versus Baltimore | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| Ruggs, L.V. | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Hill, K.C. | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Sutton, Den. | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Pittman, Ind. | 6 | 89 | 1 |
| Allen, LAC | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Williams, LAC | 2 | 27 | 0 |
Debatable which Charger wideout is No. 1, and Williams was playing hurt, but neither had a big game. One or two of those players (especially Pittman) did OK, but looks like a tougher situation for Chase, and also for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. They're a step back anyway, averaging just 48-49 yards per game, and with only 1-2 TDs apiece. Boyd has been the clear No. 3, with just 2 games over 40 yards (and one of those was one Higgins missed). Neither Higgins nor Boyd did much in last year's series, catching 4 balls apiece (for 62 and 42 yards, respectively) at Baltimore and combining for 1 catch in the home game (which we're disregarding; Brandon Allen threw for just 48 yards in that one). ... On the other hand, it looks like a better than average week to consider C.J. Uzomah. While Baltimore has been shutting down a lot of wide receivers, they've allowed a lot of good games by tight ends. Not that Uzomah is Waller (10-105-1) or Kelce (7-109-1), but Noah Fant (6-46-1) and Jared Cook (4-25-1) also scored against the Ravens. Uzomah's not a big part of the passing game (no more than 2-3 catches in every game but the Jacksonville explosion), but he caught a touchdown at Detroit, giving him scores in two of the last three weeks. ... Joe Mixon is having a good season, with 4 TDs, and he's averaging 95 yards per game (80 run, 15 rec). He does not, however, have a good recent history against this opponent. In three of his last four in the series he's averaged under 2.5 per attempt: 12 carries for 14 yards, 8 for 10, and then 24 for 59 last season. In seven career meetings he has 1 TD. It's a better offense around him right now, and maybe this Ravens run defense isn't as good (top-5 statistically, but allowing 4.1 per attempt, which is middle of the pack, and 6 TDs on the ground). But a below-average situation. Baltimore really shut down Austin Ekeler (6 carries, 7 yards) last week. Either Samaje Perine (if he returns from the COVID list) or Chris Evans (who had an impressive touchdown grab last week) will pick up a few chances in the passing game, but Mixon will also get some of those (5 catches at Detroit). ... Evan McPherson averages just over 6 kicking points, with Cincinnati kicking more than twice as many extra points (17) as field goals (just 7). This has been one of the worst matchups for kickers two years running, with Baltimore allowing a league-low 16 field goals last season and just 5 so far this year (2nd-fewest). ... The Bengals Defense has 14 sacks and 5 interceptions, both top-12 totals. Lamar Jackson is trying to do it all (and sometimes achieving it) behind a banged-up line, and he's taken 16 sacks while throwing 5 interceptions and losing 3 fumbles. But game script might be working against them here, and they haven't had much success against him in the past (in the last four meetings, just 2 sacks and 2 takeaways off Jackson).