BUFFALO (at NYJ)
It's not a given that the Bills will bounce back after last week's debacle in Jacksonville. Their offense has actually been off more often than on this year, struggling with some of the same issues that have plagued Kansas City. They ...
... managed only 314 total yards of offense in a win at Miami. And at home, they scored only one late touchdown against Pittsburgh, settled for too many field goals against Houston and were tied 3-3 with the Dolphins at halftime. They just haven't had the same dynamic attack that ripped up defenses in the second half of last year. But with the quality of opponent they're playing this week, you would think they could sleepwalk through this game and score in the mid-20s. The Jets have allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games, and they've given up 54, 31 and 45 points in their last three. ... Josh Allen hasn't been able to get back to the kind of transcendent numbers he was putting up at the end of last year. In his final eight games last year, he completed 71 percent of his passes, with 21 TDs, 5 interceptions, 5 rushing touchdowns and a 111 passer rating. In eight games this year, he's under 66 percent completions, with 17 TDs, 5 interceptions and only 3 TD runs. He's passing for 18 fewer yards per ...
This report is taken from today's Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 15 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... game. The numbers are fine, but they're just not quite as good -- doesn't look like an MVP kind of guy. But here's a game where those issues can be set aside for a week, with Allen at worst being one of the top half-dozen quarterbacks of the week. The Jets have allowed an average of 333 passing yards in their last four games, with 11 TDs. And Allen is still calling his own number often as a runner around the goal-line. ... It's hard to have much confidence in the running backs right now, with the Bills not making much of a commitment to running the ball. Buffalo had run for over 120 yards in four straight games, but they've run for only 82, 102 and 72 yards in their last three, and two of those were against lesser Jacksonville and Miami defenses. Neither Devin Singletary nor Zack Moss has run for 30 yards in any of their last three games. Josh Allen is one of the league's highest-paid players, but they still continue to put him at risk by using him consistently as a runner -- he's averaging 40 rushing yards, and he's scored 3 of their 8 rushing touchdowns. So it's a modest one-two punch. Singletary has averaged 40 rushing and 11 receiving yards in his last seven games, with 1 TD. Moss has averaged 33 rushing and 24 receiving yards in those games, with 4 TDs (but none since Week 4). The Jets rank only 27th in run defense, but the three teams that have really crushed them on the ground all run it a lot better than the Bills do -- Titans, Patriots, Colts. New York has allowed an average of 96 rushing yards in its other five games, with 7 rushing touchdowns. ... With New York's defensive issues, we're ranking the wide receivers higher than usual. With Allen looking like a candidate for 300 yards and 3 TD passes, the odds of hitting on Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders or Cole Beasley go way up. Diggs has been a disappointment so far, averaging 74 yards per week, with 3 TDs in eight games, but he's their No. 1 guy, and this is a game where he should shine. Beasley has been busy recently, catching 25 passes in his last three games. But Beasley has caught only one touchdown, and he tends to run mostly short routes -- in only two games has he averaged more than 9 yards per catch. Sanders has caught 23 fewer passes than Beasley but has more total yards -- he's averaging over 17 yards per catch. Sanders has averaged 60 yards per week, with a pair of 2-TD games. ... Gabriel Davis had a good rookie season but has failed to build on it. He's caught only 10 passes all year. Unless one of the veterans is sidelined by an injury, it doesn't look like he'll get a chance at having much of a role. ... Dawson Knox has been sidelined since Week 6 by a broken hand. They haven't placed him on IR, so presumably they believed at some point that he would be playing in this game. But Knox didn't practice at all last week. If he's sidelined, then some consideration can be given to the player who'll replace him. Tommy Sweeney doesn't have the same pass-catching ability, but they'll probably be in the red zone plenty in this game, with plenty of balls being fired into the end zone. In each of the last two games, Sweeney has been on the field for over 80 percent of their plays (but with just 5 catches for 40 yards). ... The stats suggest Tyler Bass will be the highest-scoring kicker this week -- by far. Thus far he's averaging a league-low 9.6 points per game, while New York's defense is allowing a league-worst 10.1 points per week against kickers. ... The Bills Defense looks like the favorite to lead the league in interceptions in Week 10. It's picked off 11 passes so far, while the Jets have thrown a league-high 14. It's not as compelling for sacks, especially if it's Mike White at quarterback. In essentially two games of action, he's taken only 3 sacks (Zach Wilson, on the other hand, has been taking over 3 sacks per game). Buffalo has some good pass rushers but has managed a modest 18 sacks in eight games. If kick returns are included, Buffalo gets a plus -- Isaiah McKenzie has come close to taking a couple of kickoff returns all the way.