Looking at upcoming strength of schedule, the easiest schedules for the next month belong to offenses that nobody much cares about. The hardest schedules, on the other hand, belong to good teams in the thick of the playoff race.
Using points, for example, the Bills and Patriots will play the hardest schedules over the next month. Those teams rank 1st and 2nd in scoring defense, and they’re going to play each other twice in the next few weeks. Buffalo’s next four games are against opponents allowing under 19 points per game – more than a touchdown less than some other schedules.
The Jaguars, Eagles and Dolphins, meanwhile, will see the softest defenses over the next four weeks.
The following chart shows average points allowed by opponents in their next four games. For most teams, this is Weeks 13-16. For teams that haven’t yet had their byes, it’s Weeks 13-17.
SOS, POINTS (next 4 games) | |
---|---|
Team | Pts/G |
Jacksonville | 26.2 |
Philadelphia | 26.2 |
Miami | 25.0 |
New Orleans | 24.8 |
Minnesota | 24.3 |
Dallas | 24.2 |
Arizona | 24.1 |
Houston | 24.1 |
Denver | 24.0 |
Seattle | 24.0 |
Tennessee | 23.9 |
Kansas City | 23.9 |
NY Giants | 23.8 |
Washington | 23.8 |
NY Jets | 23.6 |
Pittsburgh | 23.5 |
Cleveland | 23.3 |
LA Chargers | 23.2 |
San Francisco | 23.2 |
Atlanta | 23.2 |
Green Bay | 23.1 |
LA Rams | 22.4 |
Carolina | 22.4 |
Cincinnati | 22.2 |
Detroit | 22.2 |
Las Vegas | 22.1 |
Tampa Bay | 21.9 |
Indianapolis | 21.9 |
Baltimore | 21.8 |
Chicago | 21.0 |
New England | 20.6 |
Buffalo | 18.9 |
If we instead use wins and losses, the easiest upcoming schedules belong to the Jets and Texans (but those offenses are so lame, they might not be able to do much with the advantage). Other teams with softer upcoming schedules include the Eagles, Vikings and Cardinals.
Teams with the hardest upcoming schedules (via wins in next four games) including the Bills and the four teams in the AFC North (a tough division where everyone figures to beat up on each other).
SOS, WINS (next 4 games) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
NY Jets | 17 | 29 | 0 | .370 |
Houston | 17 | 28 | 0 | .378 |
Philadelphia | 17 | 27 | 0 | .386 |
Minnesota | 16 | 26 | 2 | .386 |
Arizona | 17 | 27 | 1 | .389 |
Tennessee | 18 | 26 | 1 | .411 |
Dallas | 19 | 25 | 0 | .432 |
Seattle | 19 | 25 | 0 | .432 |
LA Rams | 19 | 25 | 0 | .432 |
Atlanta | 19 | 25 | 1 | .433 |
Jacksonville | 20 | 25 | 0 | .444 |
Miami | 20 | 25 | 0 | .444 |
LA Chargers | 20 | 24 | 0 | .455 |
Denver | 20 | 23 | 1 | .466 |
Tampa Bay | 22 | 23 | 0 | .489 |
New England | 22 | 23 | 0 | .489 |
NY Giants | 23 | 23 | 0 | .500 |
New Orleans | 23 | 22 | 0 | .511 |
San Francisco | 23 | 22 | 0 | .511 |
Green Bay | 23 | 22 | 0 | .511 |
Las Vegas | 24 | 21 | 0 | .533 |
Kansas City | 23 | 20 | 1 | .534 |
Washington | 25 | 20 | 0 | .556 |
Indianapolis | 25 | 20 | 0 | .556 |
Carolina | 25 | 19 | 0 | .568 |
Detroit | 25 | 19 | 0 | .568 |
Chicago | 26 | 19 | 0 | .578 |
Cincinnati | 26 | 18 | 0 | .591 |
Baltimore | 27 | 18 | 1 | .598 |
Buffalo | 29 | 18 | 0 | .617 |
Pittsburgh | 28 | 17 | 0 | .622 |
Cleveland | 28 | 16 | 1 | .633 |
—Ian Allan