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Updated strength of schedule

Bills face tough upcoming slate

Looking at upcoming strength of schedule, the easiest schedules for the next month belong to offenses that nobody much cares about. The hardest schedules, on the other hand, belong to good teams in the thick of the playoff race.

Using points, for example, the Bills and Patriots will play the hardest schedules over the next month. Those teams rank 1st and 2nd in scoring defense, and they’re going to play each other twice in the next few weeks. Buffalo’s next four games are against opponents allowing under 19 points per game – more than a touchdown less than some other schedules.

The Jaguars, Eagles and Dolphins, meanwhile, will see the softest defenses over the next four weeks.

The following chart shows average points allowed by opponents in their next four games. For most teams, this is Weeks 13-16. For teams that haven’t yet had their byes, it’s Weeks 13-17.

SOS, POINTS (next 4 games)
TeamPts/G
Jacksonville26.2
Philadelphia26.2
Miami25.0
New Orleans24.8
Minnesota24.3
Dallas24.2
Arizona24.1
Houston24.1
Denver24.0
Seattle24.0
Tennessee23.9
Kansas City23.9
NY Giants23.8
Washington23.8
NY Jets23.6
Pittsburgh23.5
Cleveland23.3
LA Chargers23.2
San Francisco23.2
Atlanta23.2
Green Bay23.1
LA Rams22.4
Carolina22.4
Cincinnati22.2
Detroit22.2
Las Vegas22.1
Tampa Bay21.9
Indianapolis21.9
Baltimore21.8
Chicago21.0
New England20.6
Buffalo18.9

If we instead use wins and losses, the easiest upcoming schedules belong to the Jets and Texans (but those offenses are so lame, they might not be able to do much with the advantage). Other teams with softer upcoming schedules include the Eagles, Vikings and Cardinals.

Teams with the hardest upcoming schedules (via wins in next four games) including the Bills and the four teams in the AFC North (a tough division where everyone figures to beat up on each other).

SOS, WINS (next 4 games)
TeamWLTPct
NY Jets17290.370
Houston17280.378
Philadelphia17270.386
Minnesota16262.386
Arizona17271.389
Tennessee18261.411
Dallas19250.432
Seattle19250.432
LA Rams19250.432
Atlanta19251.433
Jacksonville20250.444
Miami20250.444
LA Chargers20240.455
Denver20231.466
Tampa Bay22230.489
New England22230.489
NY Giants23230.500
New Orleans23220.511
San Francisco23220.511
Green Bay23220.511
Las Vegas24210.533
Kansas City23201.534
Washington25200.556
Indianapolis25200.556
Carolina25190.568
Detroit25190.568
Chicago26190.578
Cincinnati26180.591
Baltimore27181.598
Buffalo29180.617
Pittsburgh28170.622
Cleveland28161.633

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index