The Saints have ruled out Alvin Kamara. They also won’t have starting tackles Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. So another look at that offense is in order before tonight’s game against Dallas.
All of those three are listed as questionable with knee injuries, but reports indicate they’re not playing. And that reshapes expectations for the entire offense.
Mark Ingram will be their featured runner. I imagine they’ll also work in Tony Jones some, and probably Ty Montgomery. When they were playing at Tennessee, they began that game with an Ingram-Montgomery combo, but Montgomery suffered a dislocated finger early.
Even without Kamara, I think they’ll be able to do some things running the ball with the added dimension of a running quarterback. Hill is a Tebow-Hurts kind of guy, and they ran the ball awfully well when he was starting last year. When they won at Denver, they surprisingly used Latavius Murray more than Kamara, with Murray running for 124 yards and 2 TDs. Ingram looks more like Murray than Kamara.
And the tackles aren’t to be underestimated. Armstead and Ramczyk aren’t just starters; both are arguably top-5 tackles. So when you’re playing without those bookends, it’s going to have an adverse effect on overall production. It might cause the running game to bog down a little, resulting in more pass plays.
The tackle injuries increase my interest in the Dallas defense. With that unconventional playing style, I think Hill will make some mistakes. In his four starts last year, he took 13 sacks, threw 2 interceptions and fumbled in every game (6 fumbles total, with 3 lost).
I went into the stat projection database and adjusted the numbers. I dialed down the overall rushing production by 15-20 yards and the rushing touchdowns as well. (I overall touchdown forecast is down by about 7 percent). And Kamara, of course, is now removed, with those stats flowing to other players.
Ingram is the notable riser. He was in the mid-to-late 30s in the original projections. Now he’s in the late teens (18th, using PPR scoring). And their four most notable pass catchers all moved up by about a half dozen spots each – TreQuan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris and tight end Juwan Johnson. Hill is in about the same spot.
The overall stat projections are being uploaded onto the site. You’ll be able to see exactly how these guys project out in your league’s scoring system. They’re also going to be loaded onto the pdf version of the document, for those who prefer the cleaner look.
When I was in working on the Saints numbers, I changed a few of the other player stats around the league. Antonio Brown, for example, isn’t playing, and he’s gone. The Dallas numbers are slightly tweaked, with Amari Cooper definitely playing and Cedrick Wilson definitely out. And a few others. But I haven’t not fully corrected all of the player projections for all of the other teams. Those will come out tomorrow afternoon. The thinking here was that the Saints and Cowboys are playing tonight, and to get those adjusted rankings out as quickly as possible.
—Ian Allan
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