It’s an ugly waiting game when important players are healing up close to the fantasy playoffs. You need guys like D’Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook and Darren Waller. Maybe even someone like Chase Edmonds if you're hurting at the position. They’re the key to some teams’ fantasy fortunes, and I think a few of those teams are going to be disappointed. You need to be prepared to go on without them.
Not all of them, of course. I’m not a doom-and-gloom person who thinks every injury means the end of their season. But we’re at that part of the schedule when other factors besides actual health play into things as well. And in some cases, those injured players don’t come back at all, or get rested until the real playoffs, rendering them irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
A team’s record plays a role. If a team isn’t looking good for a playoff spot by the time the player is ready, will they really risk putting him back out there in a lost season?
Take Darren Waller, for example. He’s considered “week to week,” which is the kind of vague phrasing that would make Bill Belichick proud. There aren’t many weeks left, and the Raiders are just .500. If they suffer another couple of losses, would it be worth him coming back? They care about their playoff chances. They don’t care about yours.
On the bright side, Waller has been upgraded (?) to “day to day.” So that might be good news, maybe.
The Lions are actually in a different situation. They didn’t want another winless season, so their last-second victory over Minnesota might actually hurt Swift’s chances of coming back. Now that they’ve clear that hurdle, what’s the incentive to throw him out there at less than 100 percent? He’s their best offensive player. If there’s any risk of re-injury, what’s the upside to activating him again this season?
You have to remember, to a professional football team, the players are valuable assets with a limited shelf life. The team has short-term goals and long-term goals. If they can’t meet the short-term goals they’ve set for themselves, they’re less likely to risk the long-term goals for a few meaningless games. And the fact that extra losses only helps their draft position may or may not affect their strategy.
Now, this doesn’t mean anything for any particular player. All the guys I mentioned could come back and help your team win. I hope they do. But you’re going to see more and more players hit IR with injuries that might not be of the season-ending variety if they happened a month ago, or if the team had a winning record. And if a player you need is on a team whose fortunes have tanked, they might not come back at all. That’s reality.
I suggest you ignore anything players and coaches say regarding their injuries. For fantasy purposes, the fact that they “feel better” means nothing. Are they practicing? Is the team still in the playoff hunt? Is there an incentive to play a younger player, or simply avoid making the injury worse? Those factors will impact the team’s decision at least as much as the guy’s ability to contribute on the field.
Fantasy teams will have some big decisions to make in the next few weeks. Even if a player does come back, will you want to see them for a week before you start them? Or do you just throw the in the lineup with everything at stake? You don’t have to decide now, but eventually you will have to decide. Unless they never come back, of course. A guy like Daniel Jones probably isn’t a big part of your fantasy plans, but Adam Thielen might be. And I’m afraid that a few of these guys have taken their last snaps in 2021. Good luck this week.
Are you holding on to any players, hoping for a late-season return? Are you giving up on any of them? Which fantasy starter is most likely to pack it in for the year? Share your thoughts below.