KANSAS CITY (vs. Las Vegas)
The Kansas City offense has underperformed in the majority of its last six games -- more than 2 TDs in just one of those contests. But there have been extenuating circumstances, ...
... with its defense playing well and fortunate to face a series of struggling and/or injury and illness damaged offenses. (Giants, Broncos, Packers without Aaron Rodgers.) Far and away this offense's best game in that stretch was against this opponent: 516 yards and 5 TDs in a 41-14 win at Las Vegas. We're not going that high, but seems a lot riskier to project modest numbers against a defense Kansas City really shredded three weeks ago than look for them to again deliver a top-5 or 10 type of performance. ... With Patrick Mahomes, the team has dialed things back some of late. During Kansas City's 3-4 start he was taking too many sacks (14) and turning it over too often (9 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles). This is still a pass-first offense, but Mahomes is taking fewer chances now, and he's thrown for his four lowest yardage totals in the last six games. But the exception was a season-high 406 yards and 5 TDs while completing 70 percent of his passes at Las Vegas. It's the same defense ...
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... on the other side, and Mahomes is still Mahomes. He'd look better if the Raiders could be counted on to keep up their end of a shootout, and that looks less likely. Not only is Kansas City's defense playing well, but the Raiders have scored more than 16 points in only one of their last five. But unlikely this defense keeps Mahomes from putting up good numbers. ... With Mahomes having a number of quiet games lately, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have followed suit. Kelce averaged 78 yards and scored 4 TDs in his first six; 63 and 2 since. Hill went from 99 yards per game, with 5 TDs in six contests, to 60 and 3 in his last six. Rely too heavily on those numbers, of course and you might overlook that Kelce caught 8 passes for 119 yards in the previous meeting, and has gone over 100 yards and scored at least 1 TD in four of his last six in the series. And that Hill caught 7 passes for 83 yards with 2 TDs in that game, and 14 for 180 with a touchdown in last year's series. It's a new year and Mahomes' numbers are down, with the offense not as good in general. Kelce is 32, old for a tight end, and maybe his days of dominating opposing defenders will be rarer going forward. But no one should be considering moving too many receivers ahead of either player. ... The other wideouts might not look compelling even if Mahomes throws for 300-plus yards. None, for example, went for even 50 yards with Mahomes throwing for 406 at Las Vegas. Bryon Pringle (4 for 46 with a touchdown) was best in that one; he's been the most productive after Hill lately. But he caught just 1 pass against Denver, and dropped 2 others. In only two other games has he had more than 2 catches. The team seems to have given up on Mecole Hardman (under a third of the snaps three games in a row). Demarcus Robinson has 8 catches in his last six games, while Josh Gordon has 2 since joining the team. ... Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be the main runner; he had three times as many carries (14-5) as Darrel Williams last week even while missing some practice time due to illness. Williams was huge in the earlier meeting (43 yards rushing and 101 yards receiving, including a 38-yard touchdown) but that was with Edwards-Helaire on IR. The two have essentially split chances in the passing game since Edwards-Helaire returned (a 5-4 receptions edge the last two games), which will presumably continue. Both players have value in a game that Kansas City should win, but it's a committee situation these days. The Raiders rank just 26th against the run, so the matchup looks fine. Kansas City backs were effective in the earlier meeting, carrying 20 times for 88 yards (4.4 per attempt). ... With the offense settling for more field goals lately, Harrison Butker averages 8.6 kicking points in his last five games (just 6.3 in his first seven). This matchup looks OK (the Raiders are allowing 7.5 per game) but Kansas City might be kicking more extra points than field goals. Butker had plenty of both at Las Vegas (5 extra points, 2 field goals and a miss from 46 yards). ... The Kansas City Defense ranks inside the top 12 in both interceptions (12) and fumble recoveries (6). Pass rush has been elusive (20 sacks). Derek Carr hasn't been a great matchup in either area (27 sacks, 9 interceptions), though his numbers are up from past years -- he's been more willing to hold the ball and extend plays. Kansas City sacked him twice and had an interception in the earlier meeting, while also recovering a DeSean Jackson fumble.