I thought we were going to get bigger passing stats this year. Who would have thought, with a month left in the season, that neither Patrick Mahomes nor Josh Allen would be on pace for anything close to 40 touchdown passes? Neither of those offenses has been significantly impacted by injuries; they just haven’t been that good.
When you select a quarterback early in a fantasy draft, you’re looking for a difference maker. Not a quarterback who’ll be good, but a guy who’ll really shred it. You’re not looking for 2 TDs per game, you’re looking for a bunch of weeks with 3-4 TDs. When you get up over 40 touchdown passes in the old 16-game season, that’s where you’re closer to 3 TDs per game rather than just 2.
And with three quarters of this season in the can, only one team thus far is closer to 3 TD passes per week, rather than just 2 – the Bucs, with ageless Tom Brady. Matthew Stafford is averaging exactly 2.5 TD passes per game. He’s met expectations.
In the 32-team era (which began in 2002), 36 teams have finished the year with at least 36 touchdown passes (that’s 2.25 per game – halfway between 2.0 and 2.5). They’re shown below, and I’ve mixed in the 2021 teams that are on pace to join the group. (For the current teams, I’m listing them by where they project to be after 16 games – though actually they’ll play 17 in the new format this year.)
(For comparison’s sake, I thought 16-game totals made more sense).
I’m not sure what’s fueling this. It seems like more defenses are making more of an effort not to give up long passes, forcing teams to methodically work their way downfield. And crowd noise has probably been a factor, with offenses last year having the benefit of working in empty buildings.
But it’s been a disappointing year for offenses. Back in August, I would have thought the Bills, Packers, Cowboys and Kansas City would also be on the list below.
| TEAMS WITH 36 TOUCHDOWN PASSES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2013 | Denver | 348 | 55 | 10 |
| 2011 | Green Bay | 323 | 51 | 8 |
| 2004 | Indianapolis | 296 | 51 | 10 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 320 | 50 | 12 |
| 2007 | New England | 304 | 50 | 9 |
| 2020 | Green Bay | 269 | 48 | 5 |
| 2011 | New Orleans | 344 | 46 | 14 |
| 2021 | Tampa Bay (proj.) | 320 | 45.3 | 13.3 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | 324 | 43 | 19 |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay | 299 | 42 | 12 |
| 2014 | Indianapolis | 306 | 42 | 16 |
| 2011 | Detroit | 317 | 41 | 16 |
| 2020 | Buffalo | 299 | 40 | 11 |
| 2020 | Kansas City | 313 | 40 | 7 |
| 2020 | Seattle | 265 | 40 | 13 |
| 2016 | Green Bay | 278 | 40 | 8 |
| 2014 | Denver | 291 | 40 | 15 |
| 2012 | Green Bay | 271 | 40 | 8 |
| 2021 | LA Rams (proj.) | 302 | 40 | 13.3 |
| 2018 | Indianapolis | 287 | 39 | 15 |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 323 | 39 | 12 |
| 2011 | New England | 329 | 39 | 12 |
| 2004 | Minnesota | 297 | 39 | 12 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 248 | 38 | 9 |
| 2016 | Atlanta | 310 | 38 | 7 |
| 2016 | New Orleans | 329 | 38 | 15 |
| 2014 | Green Bay | 266 | 38 | 6 |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 209 | 37 | 8 |
| 2014 | Dallas | 237 | 37 | 11 |
| 2012 | Denver | 292 | 37 | 11 |
| 2010 | New England | 251 | 37 | 5 |
| 2019 | New Orleans | 277 | 36 | 6 |
| 2018 | Atlanta | 309 | 36 | 7 |
| 2018 | Tampa Bay | 335 | 36 | 26 |
| 2015 | New England | 301 | 36 | 7 |
| 2015 | NY Giants | 281 | 36 | 14 |
| 2007 | Dallas | 268 | 36 | 19 |
| 2004 | Green Bay | 284 | 36 | 19 |
| 2021 | LA Chargers (proj.) | 296 | 36 | 14.7 |
—Ian Allan