TAMPA BAY (at Carolina)
The Bucs looked like favorites to get back to the Super Bowl, but they lost three key starters in a shutout loss to New Orleans, including Chris Godwin for the season. It's a weakened team, especially in the short term, but ...
... this looks like a good spot for them to get back on track. The Panthers have one of the league's top-performing defenses (both yards and points) but it played its best ball earlier in the season. Since allowing just 1-2 TDs in eight of its first 10 games, Carolina has now allowed 12 TDs in its last four (3, 3, 2 and 4 TDs, and mostly to marginal offenses -- Washington, Miami, Atlanta and then Buffalo last week). Tampa Bay's healthy players should be pretty solid this week. ... Ronald Jones looks like the key beneficiary of the various injuries. Leonard Fournette had been operating as a ...
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... three-down back, averaging 90 total yards (58 run, 32 rec) with 10 touchdowns, but he's reportedly headed for injured reserve with a hamstring injury, out for the final three games. There might not be much dropoff with Jones in the lineup; he started most of last season, recall, with Fournette the No. 2. He's not as good in the passing game but might be better as a runner; he averaged 5.1 per attempt a year ago. He's got fresher legs than the people trying to tackle him; carried 8 times for 63 yards against a top-5 Saints run defense. The Panthers are top-5 against the pass but below-average against the run, allowing 116 yards per game, with 12 TDs. They've played their worst ball lately, allowing 107 yards per game in the first eight, but 127 per game since. Considering the Bucs will be working without two of their top wideouts, it's a week where Carolina might/should work the run a little more than usual. KeShawn Vaughn will spell Jones on occasion, but Vaughn didn't make a case for more work last week, dropping one pass and falling down on his other target. Tampa Bay signed LeVeon Bell on Tuesday, and he could get some of those chances, possibly even this week. But should be Jones getting as many touches as he can handle. ... Tom Brady is probably still fuming about the loss to New Orleans, lowlighted by dropped passes, missed blocks, and Brady getting sacked 4 times and hit hard on numerous other occasions. He'll be working with a new receiver or two, but will also have a familiar face returning to the lineup. Carolina has a top-5 pass defense, but is probably more of an above-average group that's played a favorable schedule (including eight games against the AFC and NFC East). The three best quarterbacks it's faced -- Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen -- each threw 3-4 touchdowns, and Cousins passed for 373 yards. When Brady went to Carolina late last season, he threw for 341 yards and 3 TDs, plus a rushing score. Probably the Bucs will run a little more than usual, but slightly above-average yards and a couple of touchdowns still look like a pretty safe (perhaps conservative) estimate. ... No Godwin, and Mike Evans is expected to miss at least this game with a hamstring injury. So it's good timing to get Antonio Brown back from suspension, and he should step right in as the No. 1. Brown hasn't played since Week 6 so there might be some rust to shake off, but assuming he's practicing as normal this week, he'll be in line for plenty of targets. Pre-injury he was vying with Evans and Godwin for looks, and now it will be some combination of Tyler Johnson, Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller. Johnson looks like the best bet, catching 4 for 41 after the top 2 were sidelined last week. But he's been playing plenty in place of Brown for half the season and has only one other game with more than 3 receptions. Perriman caught the game-winning touchdown against Buffalo but has just 3 other catches in three games. Miller has been in the offense longest, but has just 4 catches while playing significant snaps in two games. ... Rob Gronkowski should see more targets, not that that meant much against New Orleans. The 11 passes thrown his way resulted in 2 catches for 29 yards. But he'll probably be busy again, and a few more should be completed. In nine games this season he has 40 receptions and 6 TDs. Given the receiver injuries, Cameron Brate might get a few more chances. He had 4 passes thrown his way last week, catching 2 for 22 yards. But put him with the lesser wide receiver options: a possibility to catch 3-4 passes or get shut out entirely. Four games in a row, including last week, he's played about a quarter of the time. ... Ryan Succop was averaging 7.5 points until getting shut out last week, badly missing his only opportunity (from 45 yards). The offensive injuries could cause a few more drives to end with three-point tries. To this point he's kicked nearly three times as many extra points (47) as field goals (17). ... The Bucs Defense disappointed against Taysom Hill last week, with just 2 sacks and no takeaways. We're doubling down on them here, facing a Panthers offense that's hedging on naming a starting quarterback (as they say, having multiple quarterbacks often means you don't have one). Only the Jets have thrown more interceptions than Carolina (18), and only seven teams have taken more sacks (36). Tampa Bay ranks in the top 6 in both (15 interceptions and 37 sacks).