Passing production fell a little flat last year. With the league being well stocked with up-and-coming quarterbacks and dynamic offense, I was expecting better numbers overall. Instead, we got a dip back from the previous three years.

Teams averaged only 244 passing yards per game last year. That was down 11 from the previous season. In only one other season since 2014 has the average dropped below 250.

Touchdown passes also declined. Teams averaged 27.2 points in 2020, and they’ve been over 26 in two other recent seasons. They averaged only 24.7 TDs last year. (Note: with the league adding an extra week, the 24.7 shows the average per 16 games rather than the full 17-week season – for comparison’s sake.)

Using standard scoring, this works out to 18.4 fantasy points per week, down from the previous three seasons.

I’m not sure exactly what happened here. Teams in 2020 might have been helped by the pandemic, with more visiting teams not having to deal much with crowd noise. That probably contributed. And outside of Mac Jones, the rookie quarterbacks came in below expectations.

I would expect in 2022 that teams will move back up over 250 yards per game, and probably over 26 TD passes.

LEAGUE PASSING AVERAGES
YearYd/GTD/YrInt/Yr F Pts/G
2020254.927.212.319.5
2015259.226.313.619.5
2018254.426.513.119.3
2016255.624.613.018.9
2013252.325.115.718.9
2019251.824.912.818.8
2021244.124.712.918.4
2012246.023.714.618.2
2014236.825.214.118.1
2011244.823.315.818.1
2017239.623.213.417.8
2010236.323.516.017.7
2009232.322.216.417.2
2007228.322.516.717.0
2004225.322.916.417.0
2002227.021.716.516.8
2008224.220.214.516.3
2006219.320.316.316.0
2005218.220.115.815.9
2003213.820.416.815.8

—Ian Allan