I will be interested to see what happens to Allen Robinson in the offseason. He’s headed for free agency, and I’m not sure how teams are going to value him.
Robinson has been an elite receiver in the past. He caught 200 passes in the 2019-20 seasons. He’s also only 28 years old. Is there a team out there willing to offer him a deal averaging $15 million?
With how the 2021 season played out, I’m not sure Robinson will be able to get much more than maybe $5-6 million per year. Beyond that, teams probably will want to tie the production to production. For whatever reason, Robinson wasn’t a good receiver for the Bears last year.
Robinson missed five games entirely, and when he was on the field, he wasn’t the same guy he’s been in the past. In 12 games, he caught only 38 passes for 410 yards, and with only one touchdown. The Bears got much better play out of their young receiver, Darnell Mooney.
Robinson played last season on the franchise tag, and some subscribe to the theory of that being a motivator – wanting to put up good numbers and cashing in the following season. But that hasn’t really been the case, especially at the wide receiver position.
In the last 15 years, seven wide receivers have played on the franchise tag. One of those guys put up top-7 receiving numbers (using PPR scoring). Two others ranked just outside the top 10, including Chris Godwin this year. But the majority of those receivers (4 of 7) didn’t finish with top-40 numbers in their pivotal season.
Similarly at tight end. Five have played on the franchise tag. Two ranked just outside the top 10 statistically in their contract year, but three others ranked outside the top 20 (which isn’t what you’re looking for in a typical fantasy league).
The hit rate is higher at running back and quarterback, where I see five guys finishing with top-5 numbers versus two putting up numbers in line with what you would typically expect from the players. Only two finished with poor numbers, and they’re guys we’re all familiar with: Dak Prescott broke his ankle in his fifth game, while LeVeon Bell simply never showed up.
| PLAYING ON THE FRANCHISE TAG | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pos | Player | PPR | Note |
| 2005 | QB | Drew Brees, S.D. | 7th | 27 tot TDs |
| 2016 | QB | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 5th | 29 tot TDs |
| 2017 | QB | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4th | 31 tot TDs |
| 2020 | QB | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 33rd | 5 G, 13 tot TDs |
| 2005 | RB | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 1st | 1958 yds, 28 TD |
| 2005 | RB | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 5th | 1843 yds, 14 TD |
| 2009 | RB | Darren Sproles, S.D. | 25th | 840 yds, 8 TD |
| 2017 | RB | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 2nd | 1946 yds, 11 TD |
| 2018 | RB | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | -- | sat out season |
| 2003 | TE | Jim Kleinsasser, Min. | 11th | 46-401-4 |
| 2008 | TE | L.J. Smith, Phil. | 26th | 37-298-3 |
| 2009 | TE | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 22nd | 45-440-1 |
| 2012 | TE | Fred Davis, Was. | 41st | 7 G, 24-325-0 |
| 2020 | TE | Hunter Henry, LAC | 12th | 60-613-4 |
| 2009 | WR | Antonio Bryant, T.B. | 59th | 13 G, 39-600-4 |
| 2011 | WR | Vincent Jackson, S.D. | 13th | 60-1106-9 |
| 2012 | WR | Wes Welker, N.E. | 7th | 118-1354-6 |
| 2012 | WR | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 43rd | 59-801-3 |
| 2020 | WR | A.J. Green, Cin. | 68th | 47-523-2 |
| 2021 | WR | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 14th | 98-1103-5 |
| 2021 | WR | Allen Robinson, Chi. | 82nd | 38-410-1 |
—Ian Allan