Mike Williams is headed for free agency, and while it's possible he'll return -- working with Justin Herbert last year went well for him -- he might also get bigger offers to leave town. There are several in-house candidates to fill that void, most notably Josh Palmer.
Palmer was a third-round selection a year ago, and while he had a fairly quiet rookie season, he came on nicely. After catching only 9 passes and 1 touchdown in his first eight games, he caught 24 balls with 3 TDs in his last nine. That included 5 for 66, 5 for 43 and 4 for 45 weeks in his last five, with touchdowns in each of those three contests. Impressive enough that the Chargers might pause before paying Williams top dollar.
I took a look at the recent history of wide receivers selected in the third round, to see how many of those players made a Year 2 leap. I focused on players who had done something -- anything, which I defined as at least 100 receiving yards -- in their rookie seasons. I didn't want to muddy the results with guys who were immediate non-entities who washed out of the league right away (Amara Darboh, Carlos Henderson), though I did list those players in the table below.
The numbers are fairly promising. Of the 24 wide receivers from the last decade that fit the profile -- third-round picks who put up at least 100 receiving yards as rookies -- about three-quarters of them (17) put up more yards in Year 2. And three of the seven who put up fewer yards were great pros who declined either because they had big rookie seasons or missed time to injury in their second seasons, or both: Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett.
Merely being better in Year 2 isn't automatically a huge selling point; T.J. Graham going from 322 yards to 361 or Miles Boykin from 198 to 266 doesn't get them into fantasy lineups.
But about a third (5) of the 17 who improved went over 1,000 yards, and two others went over 800. All seven of those guys have gone on to be solid pros: McLaurin, Gallup, Hilton, Golladay, John Brown, Diontae Johnson and Godwin.
Table sorted by rookie-year receiving production; 2021's rookies in bold.
| 3RD-RD WRS, ONE YEAR LATER (2012-2021) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No(1) | Yds(1) | TD(1) | No(2) | Yds(2) | TD(2) | % +/- |
| 2013 | 76 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 77 | 783 | 4 | -25.1% |
| 2019 | 76 | Terry McLaurin, Wash. | 58 | 919 | 7 | 87 | 1118 | 4 | 21.7% |
| 2017 | 69 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 62 | 869 | 5 | 40 | 566 | 6 | -34.9% |
| 2012 | 92 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 50 | 861 | 7 | 82 | 1083 | 5 | 25.8% |
| 2013 | 74 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 44 | 736 | 5 | 37 | 621 | 8 | -15.6% |
| 2014 | 91 | John Brown, Ariz. | 48 | 696 | 5 | 65 | 1003 | 7 | 44.1% |
| 2019 | 66 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 59 | 680 | 5 | 88 | 923 | 7 | 35.7% |
| 2015 | 69 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 51 | 664 | 8 | 41 | 597 | 2 | -10.1% |
| 2017 | 84 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 34 | 525 | 1 | 59 | 842 | 7 | 60.4% |
| 2018 | 81 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | 33 | 507 | 2 | 66 | 1107 | 6 | 118.3% |
| 2017 | 96 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | 28 | 477 | 3 | 70 | 1063 | 5 | 122.9% |
| 2021 | 89 | Nico Collins, Hou. | 33 | 446 | 1 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2014 | 90 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 32 | 444 | 3 | 64 | 733 | 6 | 65.1% |
| 2018 | 91 | Tre'Quan Smith, N.O. | 28 | 427 | 5 | 18 | 234 | 5 | -45.2% |
| 2021 | 77 | Josh Palmer, LAC | 33 | 353 | 4 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2012 | 69 | T.J. Graham, Buff. | 31 | 322 | 1 | 23 | 361 | 2 | 12.1% |
| 2013 | 78 | Marquise Goodwin, Buff. | 17 | 283 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 0 | -85.2% |
| 2017 | 72 | Taywan Taylor, Tenn. | 16 | 231 | 1 | 37 | 466 | 1 | 101.7% |
| 2013 | 92 | Stedman Bailey, St.L. | 17 | 226 | 1 | 30 | 435 | 1 | 92.5% |
| 2020 | 92 | Devin Duvernay, Balt. | 20 | 201 | 1 | 33 | 272 | 2 | 35.3% |
| 2015 | 76 | Chris Conley, K.C. | 17 | 199 | 1 | 44 | 530 | 0 | 166.3% |
| 2019 | 93 | Miles Boykin, Balt. | 13 | 198 | 3 | 19 | 266 | 4 | 34.3% |
| 2020 | 81 | Bryan Edwards, L.V. | 11 | 193 | 1 | 34 | 571 | 3 | 195.9% |
| 2021 | 82 | Dyami Brown, Wash. | 12 | 165 | 0 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2015 | 70 | Jaelen Strong, Hou. | 14 | 161 | 3 | 14 | 131 | 0 | -18.6% |
| 2012 | 83 | Mohamed Sanu, Cin. | 16 | 154 | 5 | 47 | 455 | 2 | 195.5% |
| 2015 | 94 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 15 | 136 | 2 | 44 | 348 | 3 | 155.9% |
| 2021 | 91 | Anthony Schwartz, Clev. | 10 | 135 | 1 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2016 | 85 | Braxton Miller, Hou. | 15 | 99 | 1 | 19 | 162 | 1 | 63.6% |
| 2014 | 86 | Josh Huff, Phil. | 8 | 98 | 1 | 27 | 312 | 3 | 218.4% |
| 2012 | 68 | DeVier Posey, Hou. | 6 | 87 | 0 | 15 | 155 | 0 | 78.2% |
| 2017 | 79 | ArDarius Stewart, NYJ | 6 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 106 | Amara Darboh, Sea. | 8 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2013 | 79 | Markus Wheaton, Pitt. | 6 | 64 | 0 | 53 | 644 | 2 | 906.3% |
| 2021 | 85 | Amari Rodgers, G.B. | 4 | 45 | 0 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2017 | 98 | Chad Williams, Ariz. | 3 | 31 | 0 | 17 | 171 | 1 | 451.6% |
| 2016 | 86 | Leonte Carroo, Mia. | 3 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 137.9% |
| 2015 | 87 | Sammie Coates, Pitt. | 1 | 11 | 0 | 21 | 435 | 2 | 3854.5% |
| 2019 | 67 | Jalen Hurd, S.F. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 82 | Carlos Henderson, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Looking at the players who didn't do anything at all in their rookie seasons, odds don't look for the Packers having a second notable A.Rodgers. Of the 11 other third-rounders who put up fewer than 100 yards as rookies, only two did anything in Year 2 (or ever). Both played for Pittsburgh, annually deep at wideout and notorious for bringing rookies along slowly. The others all washed out of the league quickly.
Back to Palmer. If the Chargers were to let Williams walk, I'd be very interested in the youngster as a second-year sleeper. Even if they don't, he could be a factor as a No. 3 working with one of the game's best young quarterbacks. Also seems promising for Collins (with little ahead of him in Houston); Schwartz and Brown (with QB questions) look iffier.
--Andy Richardson