There won’t be a tight end selected in the first round. There might not be one chosen in the top 50. But if form holds, there will be some who’ll put up good rookie numbers and have good careers.
Most recently, for example, consider Pat Freiermuth. He was just the 55th pick of last year’s draft, but he caught 7 touchdowns as a rookie. Or Cole Kmet the previous season; he hasn’t made an impact statistical impact yet, but he looks like he’s going to be in the league for a lot of years.
This year’s draft includes a lot of modest tight end prospects who’ll go in the second, third and fourth rounds. Trey McBride (pictured) is the first tight end on most published mock drafts. He’s nothing special athletically, but he caught 90 passes for 1,121 yards at Colorado State last year. We’ll see where he goes, but I don’t the college production as a huge selling point. I think there have been two notable tight end prospects with 80-plus catches (in their final college season) in the last 20 years, and neither had a good career: Jace Amaro (106 catches) and Chase Coffman (90).
Jelani Woods played at Oklahoma State and Virginia. He’s got size that will get the attention of some teams. He measured at 6-foot-7 and 259 pounds at the combine. He was listed at 275 pounds as a college player, so he may have lightened up in hopes of posting a good 40 time (and 4.61 is good for a big man).
Chigoziem Okonkwo ran a 4.52 At the combine, fastest of the tight ends, but he’s shorter and lighter than a typical tight end. He measured 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds at the combine. He also didn’t do much with that speed at Maryland, with his 52 catches last year averaging only 8.6 yards.
Other tight ends who might be selected in the third round: Jalen Wydermyer (Texas A&M), Jeremy Ruckert (Ohio State), Isaiah Likely (Coastal Carolina), Cole Turner (Nevada), Cade Otton (Washington) and Greg Dulcich (UCLA).
At this point, I don’t see any tight end I’d be excited about selecting in a fantasy draft. I would need to see something on the field first (or at least see them drafted into a situation where it looks like their NFL team has confidence in them).
But the historical numbers indicate there will be some decent ones.
Since 2000, 44 tight ends have finished with top-25 numbers in their first season (using PPR numbers). Only 13 of those guys were players chosen in the first round (and I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots).
| ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS WITH TOP-25 NUMBERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2021 | • Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 4 | 68 | 1026 | 1 | 176.6 | 6 |
| 2002 | • Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 14 | 74 | 894 | 2 | 175.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | • Evan Engram, NYG | 23 | 64 | 722 | 6 | 173.6 | 5 |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 42 | 42 | 546 | 10 | 156.6 | 11 |
| 2021 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 55 | 60 | 497 | 7 | 153.7 | 13 |
| 2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 38 | 55 | 627 | 5 | 147.7 | 7 |
| 2010 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 113 | 45 | 563 | 6 | 142.0 | 14 |
| 2013 | Tim Wright, T.B. | FA | 54 | 571 | 5 | 141.3 | 13 |
| 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 35 | 36 | 478 | 8 | 131.8 | 18 |
| 2010 | • Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 21 | 52 | 471 | 4 | 125.1 | 16 |
| 2005 | • Heath Miller, Pitt. | 30 | 39 | 459 | 6 | 120.9 | 14 |
| 2010 | Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 93 | 47 | 556 | 3 | 120.6 | 17 |
| 2008 | • Dustin Keller, NYJ | 30 | 48 | 535 | 3 | 119.5 | 14 |
| 2012 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 64 | 45 | 521 | 3 | 115.6 | 25 |
| 2013 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 85 | 45 | 499 | 3 | 114.7 | 22 |
| 2018 | Chris Herndon, NYJ | 107 | 39 | 502 | 4 | 113.2 | 16 |
| 2019 | • Noah Fant, Den. | 20 | 40 | 562 | 3 | 113.0 | 15 |
| 2002 | Randy McMichael, Mia. | 114 | 39 | 485 | 4 | 112.3 | 9 |
| 2018 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 86 | 34 | 552 | 3 | 107.2 | 17 |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 35 | 36 | 469 | 4 | 106.9 | 23 |
| 2017 | George Kittle, S.F. | 146 | 43 | 515 | 2 | 106.5 | 19 |
| 2015 | Will Tye, NYG | FA | 42 | 464 | 3 | 106.4 | 25 |
| 2007 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 38 | 44 | 444 | 3 | 106.4 | 16 |
| 2017 | • O.J. Howard, T.B. | 19 | 26 | 432 | 6 | 105.2 | 20 |
| 2004 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 81 | 37 | 314 | 6 | 104.4 | 12 |
| 2013 | Mychal Rivera, Oak. | 184 | 38 | 407 | 4 | 102.7 | 24 |
| 2006 | Owen Daniels, Hou. | 98 | 34 | 352 | 5 | 99.2 | 14 |
| 2001 | Eric Johnson, S.F. | 224 | 40 | 362 | 3 | 96.2 | 15 |
| 2017 | • David Njoku, Cle. | 29 | 32 | 386 | 4 | 94.7 | 24 |
| 2007 | • Greg Olsen, Chi. | 31 | 39 | 391 | 2 | 92.1 | 22 |
| 2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 49 | 33 | 334 | 4 | 90.4 | 20 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith, T.B. | 71 | 41 | 367 | 2 | 89.7 | 19 |
| 2002 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 55 | 32 | 409 | 2 | 84.9 | 18 |
| 2014 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 49 | 38 | 345 | 2 | 84.5 | 24 |
| 2018 | Ian Thomas, Car. | 101 | 36 | 333 | 2 | 81.3 | 24 |
| 2000 | • Bubba Franks, G.B. | 14 | 34 | 363 | 1 | 76.3 | 19 |
| 2005 | Bo Scaife, Ten. | 179 | 37 | 273 | 2 | 76.3 | 22 |
| 2001 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 35 | 25 | 330 | 3 | 76.0 | 21 |
| 2003 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 69 | 35 | 347 | 1 | 75.7 | 20 |
| 2003 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | FA | 24 | 389 | 2 | 74.9 | 21 |
| 2000 | Aaron Shea, Cle. | 110 | 30 | 302 | 2 | 72.2 | 23 |
| 2002 | • Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 28 | 26 | 252 | 3 | 69.2 | 23 |
| 2003 | • Dallas Clark, Ind. | 24 | 29 | 340 | 1 | 69.0 | 24 |
| 2001 | Boo Williams, N.O. | FA | 20 | 202 | 3 | 58.2 | 22 |
—Ian Allan