Heading into last year, I didn’t like the move up to 14 teams qualifying for the postseason. But after yet another notable quarterback move, it’s looking like the AFC will have no problems coming up with seven quality playoff teams. The Colts, having just landed Matt Ryan, look like a playoff team – perhaps the favorites in the AFC South.
They got it right this time. Last year, they traded a lot more for Carson Wentz, and he fell short of expectations. But after wisely cutting bait after just one year, the price tag was more palatable this time – just a third-round pick to bring on Ryan and his bloated contract.
At this point, Ryan probably is at best is an average quarterback. But with his smarts and experience, he should fit nicely with this roster. He’ll be better than Wentz, and he might even be a little better than what they got out of Philip Rivers the previous season.
With Wentz, the Colts lost confidence in him as the season progressed, relying more on Jonathan Taylor running the ball. In their final 11 games, they averaged only 173 passing yards, 3rd-fewest in the league (ahead of only the Panthers and Giants). Wentz imploded in the final two games, losses against the Raiders and Jaguars that kept the team out of the playoffs.
I’m not saying they’re going to be throwing it all over the place. I don’t think they’ll even throw it as much as they did with Rivers. But there will be more trust, and there will be more games where they’ll be willing to let Ryan go after defenses. Especially if and when defenses try to key on Taylor.
Indianapolis has Frank Reich, and he has me thinking they have a chance of finishing with above-average passing numbers, given his ability to structure a quarterback-friendly offense. Even last year, with their quarterbacking limitations, Wentz finished with 27 TDs versus only 7 interceptions.
The playoff field gets even more crowded in the AFC with this trade. It’s in the other conference where I worry we’ll see a team with a losing record limping into the postseason.
The NFC South looks particularly weak, where there’s Tampa Bay and not much else. The Saints just re-signed Jameis Winston; he’ll likely be their starting quarterback. The Falcons reportedly are going after Marcus Mariota, who played for Arthur Smith in Tennessee. And Carolina is mulling its options after Sam Darnold struggled last year.
| PASSING YARDS (final 11 games) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pct | Yds/G | TD | Int |
| Tampa Bay | 66.4% | 290 | 26 | 9 |
| LA Chargers | 66.0% | 282 | 24 | 11 |
| Dallas | 66.3% | 275 | 24 | 7 |
| Cincinnati | 68.4% | 270 | 21 | 7 |
| Kansas City | 64.9% | 267 | 19 | 5 |
| Green Bay | 68.3% | 265 | 27 | 4 |
| LA Rams | 65.9% | 260 | 25 | 13 |
| San Francisco | 69.8% | 256 | 17 | 9 |
| Las Vegas | 70.7% | 249 | 13 | 10 |
| Arizona | 68.4% | 240 | 13 | 7 |
| Buffalo | 62.4% | 236 | 21 | 13 |
| Minnesota | 63.5% | 229 | 21 | 5 |
| Chicago | 61.6% | 228 | 13 | 16 |
| New England | 65.8% | 222 | 17 | 7 |
| Baltimore | 63.5% | 215 | 12 | 13 |
| Miami | 66.1% | 213 | 14 | 10 |
| NY Jets | 59.7% | 213 | 15 | 9 |
| Pittsburgh | 63.4% | 211 | 16 | 7 |
| Detroit | 66.9% | 202 | 16 | 10 |
| New Orleans | 57.6% | 194 | 16 | 9 |
| Atlanta | 64.7% | 192 | 8 | 11 |
| Tennessee | 69.3% | 190 | 16 | 10 |
| Denver | 63.0% | 190 | 10 | 4 |
| Houston | 64.7% | 187 | 13 | 8 |
| Washington | 65.6% | 187 | 12 | 9 |
| Seattle | 62.6% | 185 | 18 | 5 |
| Jacksonville | 59.8% | 185 | 5 | 9 |
| Philadelphia | 62.1% | 183 | 12 | 6 |
| Cleveland | 59.0% | 178 | 15 | 11 |
| Indianapolis | 61.3% | 173 | 18 | 6 |
| Carolina | 56.3% | 161 | 7 | 14 |
| NY Giants | 57.1% | 143 | 10 | 14 |
—Ian Allan