The Packers shipped off Davante Adams. Now Kansas City is sending Tyreek Hill to Miami. As Vince Lombardi once said, “What the hell is going on out there?”
I think we’re looking at dynamics involving team building and valuation. That is, where do teams want to allocate their resources? With both of these teams, they’ve got a lot of money tied up in franchise quarterbacks. And with both of these receivers, they’re now moving into the second halves of their careers.
Adams is 29. With Hill, he’s a year younger but might have less top-level play left in him, given that his game is dependent on his legendary speed. So in both cases, teams need to be careful not to pay these guys as if they’re the freaky difference makers they were when they were 26 or 27 years old, when the 30- and 31-year-old versions of the players aren’t at that level. That’s probably where the difference of opinion begins.
Both players dramatically outperformed their contracts previously, of course, but that’s not relevant. That’s in the past. It’s a cold business, and teams need to pay more attention to what’s coming up.
I pulled up the list of the top 100 wide receivers of the last 20 years. Of those 100 best seasons, only 17 of them were authored by players who were at least 30 at the end of the year. But that’s not quite the picture I’m trying to paint here. Instead, let’s look at how great receivers have tended to perform as they come up to the age of 30.
For this one, I started by compiling a list of all players who’d finished with top-5 numbers at least twice before their age 29 season. Then, let’s look at how those players performed in the following seasons. That should help paint of picture of realistic expectations for Adams and Hill in the upcoming years.
Starting with the 29-year-olds. I see 19 guys, and nine of them finished with top-10 numbers. That includes Adams last year. But seven of them didn’t even put up top-20 numbers. (On this chart below, all 19 of the receivers were 29 at the end of the season.)
FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 29-YEAR-OLDS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 16 | 123 | 1,553 | 11 | 344.3 | 2 |
2001 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 16 | 109 | 1,524 | 15 | 351.7 | 1 |
2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 14 | 101 | 1,533 | 9 | 310.3 | 2 |
2002 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 14 | 100 | 1,300 | 14 | 321.9 | 3 |
2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 16 | 100 | 1,295 | 12 | 305.5 | 5 |
2005 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 14 | 102 | 1,331 | 9 | 289.3 | 5 |
2010 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 13 | 86 | 1,216 | 8 | 256.6 | 7 |
2007 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 16 | 93 | 1,440 | 8 | 289.7 | 7 |
2017 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 16 | 75 | 1,078 | 8 | 230.8 | 10 |
2016 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 16 | 90 | 1,083 | 5 | 230.3 | 16 |
2014 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 13 | 71 | 1,077 | 8 | 226.7 | 17 |
2009 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 15 | 84 | 1,024 | 5 | 217.6 | 18 |
2001 | • Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 16 | 64 | 1,106 | 6 | 212.9 | 23 |
2017 | • Dez Bryant, Dall. | 16 | 69 | 838 | 6 | 188.4 | 24 |
2012 | • Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 16 | 71 | 798 | 4 | 174.8 | 33 |
2001 | • Antonio Freeman, G.B. | 16 | 52 | 818 | 6 | 171.3 | 34 |
2021 | • DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz. | 10 | 42 | 572 | 8 | 147.2 | 46 |
2021 | • Odell Beckham, 2TM | 14 | 44 | 537 | 5 | 129.1 | 55 |
2006 | • Randy Moss, Oak. | 13 | 42 | 553 | 3 | 115.3 | 59 |
Moving to the 30-year-olds, there are 15 wide receivers. I see only four finishing with top-10 numbers, and six finishing outside the top 20. (With each of these charts, I have the receivers ordered not chronologically, but by production, with the most productive players listed first.)
FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 30-YEAR-OLDS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
2007 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 16 | 98 | 1,493 | 23 | 385.3 | 1 |
2002 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 16 | 143 | 1,722 | 11 | 384.2 | 1 |
2006 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 16 | 93 | 1,188 | 10 | 271.8 | 4 |
2018 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 15 | 104 | 1,297 | 15 | 323.7 | 5 |
2003 | Terrell Owens, S.F. | 15 | 80 | 1,102 | 9 | 244.0 | 11 |
2015 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 16 | 88 | 1,214 | 9 | 263.4 | 12 |
2017 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 16 | 83 | 949 | 5 | 207.9 | 16 |
2002 | Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 16 | 79 | 1,075 | 7 | 230.3 | 16 |
2013 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 16 | 82 | 954 | 10 | 238.2 | 17 |
2010 | • Anquan Boldin, Balt. | 16 | 64 | 837 | 7 | 189.6 | 25 |
2014 | • Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 13 | 61 | 721 | 8 | 181.1 | 34 |
2018 | • A.J. Green, Cin. | 9 | 46 | 694 | 6 | 151.4 | 42 |
2008 | • Chad Johnson, Cin. | 13 | 53 | 540 | 4 | 131.0 | 47 |
2002 | • Antonio Freeman, Phil. | 16 | 46 | 600 | 4 | 130.0 | 56 |
2011 | • Andre Johnson, Hou. | 7 | 33 | 492 | 2 | 95.0 | 77 |
With the 31-year-olds, I see similar kind of numbers. There are 14 who played enough to even make it on the list. Only four finished with top-10 numbers, while six didn’t make the top 20.
FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 31-YEAR-OLDS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
2015 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 16 | 109 | 1,502 | 14 | 343.2 | 3 |
2003 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 15 | 94 | 1,272 | 10 | 281.5 | 5 |
2012 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 16 | 112 | 1,598 | 4 | 295.8 | 6 |
2004 | Terrell Owens, Phil. | 14 | 77 | 1,200 | 14 | 280.5 | 6 |
2007 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 16 | 93 | 1,189 | 7 | 255.9 | 11 |
2008 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 16 | 69 | 1,008 | 11 | 235.8 | 12 |
2009 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 16 | 72 | 1,047 | 9 | 233.9 | 15 |
2003 | Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 15 | 69 | 981 | 5 | 202.1 | 18 |
2011 | • Anquan Boldin, Balt. | 14 | 57 | 887 | 3 | 163.7 | 35 |
2018 | • Demaryius Thomas, 2TM | 15 | 59 | 677 | 5 | 156.7 | 39 |
2014 | • Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 14 | 63 | 784 | 2 | 153.4 | 51 |
2000 | • Herman Moore, Det. | 15 | 40 | 434 | 3 | 101.4 | 63 |
2003 | • Antonio Freeman, G.B. | 15 | 14 | 141 | 0 | 28.1 | 115 |
2019 | • Antonio Brown, N.E. | 1 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 16.1 | 154 |
And I will toss in one final year, with 15 players of the 32-year-old vintage. I see five finishing in the top dozen, but I see twice as many who didn’t rank higher than 30th.
FRANCHISE RECEIVERS AS 32-YEAR-OLDS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | No | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
2009 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 16 | 83 | 1,264 | 13 | 289.4 | 2 |
2004 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 16 | 86 | 1,113 | 15 | 287.3 | 5 |
2015 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 16 | 109 | 1,215 | 9 | 284.5 | 7 |
2013 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 16 | 109 | 1,407 | 5 | 279.7 | 10 |
2004 | Isaac Bruce, St.L. | 16 | 89 | 1,292 | 6 | 254.2 | 12 |
2012 | • Anquan Boldin, Balt. | 15 | 65 | 921 | 4 | 183.4 | 30 |
2010 | • Chad Johnson, Cin. | 14 | 67 | 831 | 4 | 174.1 | 34 |
2008 | • Torry Holt, St.L. | 16 | 64 | 796 | 3 | 161.6 | 35 |
2005 | • Terrell Owens, Phil. | 7 | 47 | 763 | 6 | 159.5 | 36 |
2016 | • Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 15 | 59 | 788 | 3 | 155.8 | 49 |
2020 | • Antonio Brown, T.B. | 8 | 45 | 483 | 4 | 117.1 | 65 |
2020 | • A.J. Green, Cin. | 16 | 47 | 523 | 2 | 111.3 | 68 |
2019 | • Demaryius Thomas, NYJ | 11 | 36 | 433 | 1 | 85.3 | 83 |
2001 | • Herman Moore, Det. | 3 | 4 | 76 | 0 | 11.6 | 140 |
2020 | • Dez Bryant, Balt. | 6 | 6 | 47 | 2 | 22.7 | 157 |
This is not, of course, a scientific study. Some of these reçeivers had injuries or got dropped into lesser situations. Antonio Freeman as a 30-year-old with the Eagles – nobody thought he was going to be an elite player. And players have different body types and playing styles (Hill, for example, I would think would have a shorter shelf life as a top-tier receiver).
But in general, I’m of the school of thought that teams should be cautious about handing out big contracts to wide receivers as they’re nearing 30. In today’s cap-driven game, the goal is not only to acquire talent, but also to avoid getting into the position where a player’s production doesn’t measure up to what he’s being paid.
With both Kansas City and Green Bay, they potentially could field better teams by going with younger, cheaper receivers who aren’t as good, instead using that money to improve other areas of the team. Neither of those teams would be helped by paying 31-year-old wide receiver $24 million to be the league’s 25th-best wide receiver.
With Kansas City, reports indicate they’re receiving first- and second-round picks, plus four other lesser picks. That should help to keep their team going in the upcoming years.
The pick is an odd one for the Dolphins. They already have a wide receiver with Hill-type speed (Jaylen Waddle). And they don’t have a quarterback with much ability to throw the ball deep. Some combination of Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater should handle most of the quarterbacking for them, and neither has been much of a downfield thrower.
—Ian Allan