It’s reasonable to bat around the potential of Nico Collins, I think. His first-year numbers, after all, are pretty similarly to what we saw in previous years out of Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis and Mike Wallace.
Not than anybody expects Collins to develop into another Adams. But how they played as rookies was pretty similar. Collins was a regular in Houston’s offense, catching 33 passes for 446 yards and a touchdown. Collins caught only 33 of the 60 passes thrown his way, which isn’t great, but he’s huge (6-4, 215), and the Texans selected him in the third round. He’ll be given the opportunity, I believe, to win a starting job this summer.
Back in 2014, Adams caught 38 of 66 passes as a rookie, also for 446 yards, with 3 TDs.
Emmanuel Sanders in 2010 caught 28 of the 50 passes thrown his way, for 372 yards and 2 TDs.
Gabriel Davis two years ago caught 35 of 62 passes for the Bills, for 599 yards and 7 TDs (admittedly, a 7-1 edge for Davis in touchdowns).
None of those players put up first-year numbers that were wildly different than Collins.
So for the heck of it, why not look at previous rookie receivers who’ve been similar to Collins – then look at how said players performed in their second season? Specifically, how many of them were able to “break out”, so to speak?
Parsing through the numbers, I see 37 receivers who caught 25-40 passes in their first season, while also catching 50-60 percent of the passes thrown their way. That is, these guys all played some, but none of them really lit things up. They were contributors, with the question going into their second year of whether they could raise their game to another level.
I see nine (about 1 in 4) who finished with top-40 PPR numbers in their second season. I see another six who became very good pros for at least one season in their careers, including Reggie Wayne, David Terrell, Sidney Rice, Emmanuel Sanders, Davante Adams and DeVante Parker. Off the top of my head, there are some others who could fit in the “one good season” bucket, including Reggie Williams, Mike Williams, Laurent Robinson and Taylor Gabriel. And Gabriel Davis looks like he’s going to have some good seasons in his future.
I wouldn’t say I’m a big Nico Collins fans. Let’s see who else is on that roster, and let’s see how they look in the preseason. But it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he finishes with top-50 numbers. If we’re in one of those leagues where we’re drafting 80-90 receivers, he should be a late-round pick, I think.
In the chart, the receivers who put up top-40 receivers (PPR scoring) in their second season are tagged with black dots.
| SOPHOMORE RECEIVERS TRYING TO BREAK OUT | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Rookie Yr |
| 2000 | Travis Taylor, Balt. | 90 | 42 | 560 | 3 | 120.6 | 52 | 54-28-276-3 |
| 2001 | • Koren Robinson, Sea. | 141 | 78 | 1240 | 5 | 237.6 | 14 | 78-39-536-1 |
| 2001 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 72 | 49 | 716 | 4 | 144.6 | 51 | 49-27-345-0 |
| 2001 | David Terrell, Chi. | 10 | 9 | 127 | 3 | 39.7 | 111 | 63-34-415-4 |
| 2002 | Andre Davis, Cle. | 62 | 40 | 576 | 5 | 130.4 | 46 | 72-37-420-6 |
| 2003 | • Nate Burleson, Min. | 102 | 68 | 1006 | 10 | 235.5 | 17 | 57-29-455-2 |
| 2004 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 63 | 35 | 445 | 0 | 79.8 | 79 | 54-27-268-1 |
| 2004 | Darius Watts, Den. | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 | 163 | 53-31-385-1 |
| 2005 | • Braylon Edwards, Cle. | 125 | 61 | 884 | 6 | 186.1 | 26 | 59-32-512-3 |
| 2005 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 76 | 41 | 643 | 4 | 127.8 | 52 | 69-36-432-5 |
| 2005 | Mike Williams, Det. | 18 | 8 | 99 | 1 | 23.9 | 121 | 57-29-350-1 |
| 2007 | Sidney Rice, Min. | 31 | 15 | 141 | 4 | 53.1 | 94 | 53-31-396-4 |
| 2007 | Laurent Robinson, Atl. | 6 | 5 | 52 | 0 | 10.2 | 149 | 74-37-437-1 |
| 2009 | • Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 98 | 60 | 1257 | 10 | 249.6 | 9 | 72-39-756-6 |
| 2009 | Brian Hartline, Mia. | 73 | 43 | 615 | 1 | 113.2 | 67 | 56-31-506-3 |
| 2009 | Sammie Stroughter, T.B. | 38 | 24 | 239 | 0 | 48.1 | 113 | 60-31-334-1 |
| 2010 | Emmanuel Sanders, Pitt. | 43 | 22 | 288 | 2 | 63.6 | 99 | 50-28-376-2 |
| 2011 | Austin Pettis, St.L. | 48 | 30 | 261 | 4 | 80.1 | 81 | 48-27-256-0 |
| 2012 | • Rod Streater, Oak. | 100 | 60 | 888 | 4 | 174.5 | 33 | 74-39-584-3 |
| 2012 | T.J. Graham, Buff. | 58 | 23 | 361 | 2 | 72.5 | 96 | 58-31-322-1 |
| 2013 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 44 | 31 | 242 | 3 | 95.6 | 81 | 69-40-418-4 |
| 2013 | Aaron Dobson, N.E. | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 6.8 | 168 | 72-37-519-4 |
| 2014 | • Martavis Bryant, Pitt. | 92 | 50 | 765 | 7 | 172.2 | 39 | 48-26-549-8 |
| 2014 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 94 | 50 | 483 | 1 | 106.3 | 69 | 66-38-446-3 |
| 2014 | Taylor Gabriel, Cle. | 48 | 28 | 241 | 0 | 54.1 | 104 | 72-36-621-1 |
| 2014 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 32 | 15 | 191 | 1 | 43.9 | 118 | 69-37-422-1 |
| 2015 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 87 | 56 | 744 | 4 | 154.4 | 50 | 50-26-494-3 |
| 2015 | Seth Roberts, Oak. | 77 | 38 | 397 | 5 | 111.7 | 71 | 55-32-480-5 |
| 2017 | • Kenny Golladay, Det. | 119 | 70 | 1063 | 5 | 207.1 | 22 | 48-28-477-3 |
| 2017 | • Corey Davis, Ten. | 112 | 65 | 891 | 4 | 183.6 | 29 | 65-34-375-0 |
| 2017 | • Dede Westbrook, Jac. | 101 | 66 | 717 | 6 | 183.5 | 30 | 51-27-339-1 |
| 2018 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling, G.B. | 56 | 26 | 452 | 2 | 84.1 | 84 | 73-38-581-2 |
| 2018 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 24 | 11 | 109 | 2 | 34.7 | 133 | 45-27-467-5 |
| 2019 | Preston Williams, Mia. | 35 | 18 | 288 | 4 | 74.8 | 99 | 60-32-428-3 |
| 2020 | Gabriel Davis, Buff. | 63 | 35 | 549 | 6 | 125.9 | 58 | 62-35-599-7 |
| 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 57 | 33 | 299 | 2 | 78.1 | 96 | 54-31-396-1 |
| 2020 | KJ Hamler, Den. | 10 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 12.4 | 174 | 56-30-381-3 |
| 2021 | Nico Collins, Hou. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | 60-33-446-1 |
—Ian Allan