At what point do we give up on a young receiver? Most recently, Anthony Schwartz and Dyami Brown. Both were third-round picks last year, and neither did much in their first season. What are the odds of either one of these guys ever developing into a viable NFL starter?
With Schwartz, I remember seeing him catch a long pass in Cleveland’s Week 1 loss at Arrowhead. Had the pass been thrown slightly differently, I think it would have gone for a long touchdown. He’s really fast (as in, if they were holding an NFL’s fastest man competition, he’d be one of the 10 guys they’d invite to the finals).
But Schwartz was slowed by a knee injury, missed three games with a concussion and ultimately caught only 10 of the 23 passes thrown his way. There were only two other games where he was on the field for more than half of their plays, and he caught 2 passes for 28 yards in those games.
With Schwartz, the hope is that when Deshaun Watson takes over, there should be increased ability to connect on deep balls. But the Browns have other pass catchers, with Amari Cooper looking like their No. 1 guy and Donovan Peoples-Jones seemingly better than Schwartz last year.
Dyami Brown similarly wasn’t much of a factor as a rookie. He started off in a starting role, but after catching only 5 passes for 81 yards in five games, they demoted him back into a lightly used reserve role. He had a slightly uptick late in the year, with 48- and 25-yard receptions in Weeks 16-17, but for the year caught only 12 of the 25 passes thrown his way.
Brown caught a bunch of long passes at North Carolina, but for now with Washington, he looks like he’ll be hard-pressed to get on the field much, with the roster including Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel.
With both Schwartz and Brown having caught fewer than half of the passes thrown their way, I thought it would be interesting to look at other receivers with similar backgrounds. And it turns out the results aren’t as awful as I was expecting.
In the last 20 years, there have been 42 rookie receivers drafted in the first three rounds who’ve caught fewer than half of the passes thrown their way (with at least 20 targets). Looking at the next-year stats for those guys, 13 of them (almost a quarter) finished with top-40 PPR numbers. That group includes Michael Gallup, Chad Johnson, Mike Williams and Greg Jennings.
I’m not suggesting you should be selecting Schwartz (pictured) or especially Brown. But the historical numbers suggest that there’s actually a decent chance one of those receivers will be a decent producer in 2022.
On the chart below, the first number shows the completion of the player as a rookie (previous to the year shown). With Schwartz, for example, he caught 10 of 23 for 43 percent. I’ve got the worst players listed first with Darrius Heyward-Bey (9 of 40 = 23%) leading it off. The guys at the bottom finished just short of 50 percent.
Guys with black dots finished with top-40 numbers in their second season (using PPR scoring).
| STRUGGLING ROOKIE RECEIVERS (the next season) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2010 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 23% | 65 | 26 | 366 | 1 | 73.4 | 88 |
| 2001 | Todd Pinkston, Phil. | 29% | 84 | 42 | 586 | 4 | 125.1 | 50 |
| 2001 | • Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 34% | 120 | 66 | 1008 | 6 | 202.8 | 25 |
| 2005 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 35% | 71 | 36 | 508 | 3 | 104.8 | 64 |
| 2010 | Brian Robiskie, Cle. | 35% | 49 | 29 | 310 | 3 | 78.0 | 86 |
| 2010 | Deon Butler, Sea. | 36% | 70 | 36 | 385 | 4 | 99.1 | 74 |
| 2010 | Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle. | 36% | 73 | 36 | 483 | 2 | 101.5 | 73 |
| 2018 | • Zay Jones, Buff. | 36% | 102 | 56 | 652 | 7 | 165.2 | 35 |
| 2001 | Ron Dugans, Cin. | 37% | 45 | 28 | 251 | 2 | 67.1 | 79 |
| 2012 | Jonathan Baldwin, K.C. | 40% | 47 | 20 | 325 | 1 | 58.5 | 101 |
| 2001 | Peter Warrick, Cin. | 40% | 137 | 70 | 667 | 1 | 144.1 | 44 |
| 2002 | • Quincy Morgan, Cle. | 42% | 97 | 56 | 964 | 7 | 197.1 | 24 |
| 2006 | Roddy White, Atl. | 42% | 65 | 30 | 506 | 0 | 80.6 | 78 |
| 2019 | James Washington, Pitt. | 42% | 80 | 44 | 735 | 3 | 135.5 | 52 |
| 2003 | Robert Ferguson, G.B. | 42% | 60 | 38 | 520 | 4 | 113.2 | 61 |
| 2014 | Justin Hunter, Ten. | 43% | 67 | 28 | 498 | 3 | 95.8 | 80 |
| 2007 | • Greg Jennings, G.B. | 43% | 84 | 53 | 920 | 12 | 217.0 | 18 |
| 2022 | Anthony Schwartz, Cle. | 43% | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | • DJ Chark, Jac. | 44% | 118 | 73 | 1008 | 8 | 225.8 | 18 |
| 2013 | Stephen Hill, NYJ | 45% | 59 | 24 | 342 | 1 | 64.2 | 101 |
| 2017 | Corey Coleman, Cle. | 45% | 58 | 23 | 305 | 2 | 65.5 | 92 |
| 2001 | Dez White, Chi. | 45% | 82 | 45 | 428 | 0 | 87.8 | 69 |
| 2004 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. | 45% | 102 | 49 | 537 | 1 | 108.1 | 59 |
| 2002 | • Rod Gardner, Was. | 46% | 141 | 71 | 1006 | 8 | 219.7 | 19 |
| 2005 | • Roy Williams, Det. | 46% | 94 | 45 | 687 | 8 | 161.7 | 35 |
| 2003 | • Javon Walker, G.B. | 46% | 74 | 41 | 716 | 9 | 166.7 | 27 |
| 2021 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 46% | 56 | 38 | 467 | 0 | 85.0 | 85 |
| 2006 | Troy Williamson, Min. | 46% | 76 | 37 | 455 | 0 | 82.5 | 77 |
| 2016 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 46% | 59 | 33 | 528 | 2 | 98.8 | 79 |
| 2002 | • Chad Johnson, Cin. | 47% | 137 | 69 | 1166 | 5 | 215.6 | 21 |
| 2004 | Kelley Washington, Cin. | 47% | 50 | 31 | 378 | 3 | 86.7 | 73 |
| 2014 | Robert Woods, Buff. | 47% | 104 | 65 | 699 | 5 | 166.9 | 45 |
| 2015 | • John Brown, Ariz. | 47% | 101 | 65 | 1003 | 7 | 209.5 | 25 |
| 2003 | Antonio Bryant, Dall. | 47% | 83 | 39 | 550 | 2 | 106.0 | 66 |
| 2016 | Dorial Green-Beckham, Phil. | 48% | 74 | 36 | 392 | 2 | 87.2 | 87 |
| 2018 | • Mike Williams, LAC | 48% | 66 | 43 | 664 | 10 | 180.2 | 33 |
| 2008 | • Ted Ginn, Mia. | 48% | 93 | 56 | 790 | 2 | 166.3 | 33 |
| 2022 | Dyami Brown, Was. | 48% | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2013 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 48% | 48 | 29 | 415 | 1 | 76.4 | 93 |
| 2019 | • Michael Gallup, Dall. | 49% | 113 | 66 | 1107 | 6 | 212.7 | 24 |
| 2006 | Brandon Jones, Ten. | 49% | 53 | 27 | 384 | 4 | 89.7 | 73 |
| 2011 | Andre Roberts, Ariz. | 49% | 98 | 51 | 586 | 2 | 124.3 | 56 |
| 2016 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 49% | 58 | 23 | 371 | 4 | 86.1 | 88 |
| 2011 | Brandon LaFell, Car. | 49% | 56 | 36 | 613 | 3 | 115.3 | 60 |
—Ian Allan